01-03-2024, 09:57 AM
(01-03-2024, 09:17 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: That is interesting. Once 12/30 passed, the opportunity for the acquiring team to extend him six months after the trade (but before free agency) went away. That changed the calculus on what teams would likely pay. Many of the deals that might have included young players from Atlanta or Indiana are too risky without a path to avoid free agency.
I heard one commentator out of Toronto call Michael Grange of Sportsnet a 'mouthpiece for the team'. He's the one who named Dallas, Atlanta and Indy as the teams most likely to pursue. As soon as he put Dallas on his list, Stein (with strong connections in Dallas) tapped the brakes (but didn't deny it) by saying the interest from Dallas is overstated.
Behind Dallas at +200 is Memphis at +300 followed by Atlanta and Indy at +500 followed by Sacramento and Philly. It takes real salaries to match Siakam at $37mm. Philly gets there with expiring veterans (probably not what Toronto wants). Sacramento doesn't really make sense next to Sabonis. Indy does make sense next to Turner, but probably doesn't help Toronto unless they are willing to give up a prized youngster (too much flight risk for that). Atlanta, Memphis and Dallas have real NBA players they can include in a deal (which seems to be Toronto's preference) without destroying their roster. To me, the most likely places Siakam would stay if traded there are Philly and Dallas, so I think the odds do make some sense.
I've been skeptical on Siakam for a couple of reasons:
1. Play-style fit in Dallas, and
2. Contractual fit
After looking at his stats and play - he really is a stud. His 3-point shooting has been up and down from year to year, but he's had some good ones in there. My guess is that he'll have more open looks than at any time in the past playing with Luka and Kyrie.
Solid defender. Shares the ball. Creates his own shot when needed. Rebounds well.
He's 29, right in his prime. His timeline fits with a win-now philosophy, much like Kyrie.
Yeah, he'll probably command a $40m-plus salary. In the same range as Luka and Kyrie, which will mean we'll likely lose DJJ, Seth, and probably Exum, plus whichever players we send in trade.
But Toronto's leverage has significantly decreased, as pointed out by Dr. Dan, so the assets required might be less than we think. THJ, Maxi, and Holmes for Siakam? No draft picks?