As pertains to Hardaway. THJ currently has a D-EPM of FOUR. Yes, 4. No number in front of it and no number behind it. Just a 4 (Hell, Kyle Kuzma is a 7 and he SUCKS at D). THJ's D-Rating is a career worst and team worst 120. His DBPM is also a career worst and team worst -3.1. So, it isn't like THJ is some stud we can't live without. When Dallas has a D-Rating in a game better than 120 (when we are better for a game than the worst D in the league), we are 11-0. So, I disagree with Omahen that small incremental improvements aren't valuable. I think a few more boards with some more size and some D make us kind of scary in a wide open west. If that can be accomplished without giving up 3 point shooting, all the better.
I don't have any super strong feelings about John Collins (other than I believe Ainge will flip him). But, he's shooting very similarly to THJ from 3 at .383 (vs 384 for THJ) and .442 from the corner (THJ is .366 from the corner). Collins is creating 40% of his made 2's this season and is .714 at the rim. THJ creates 35% of his 2's and is .506 at the rim. I don't agree the offense would suffer from a THJ/Collins swap.
But, what about Collins vs. the other choices at the four. We have to bear in mind that there is reporting out there that we had interest in Naz Reid this summer. We don't know if that was in addition to or instead of GWill, but Dallas was pursuing non-stars for this position (and got one in GWill). It isn't like Naz Reid is some fantastic rebounder. He doesn't shoot 3's as well as Collins and he's never been a plus player in On/Off. Yet, he was more universally endorsed than almost all of the names above.
I'll exempt Siakam and Markkanen as they aren't attainable in an in-season deal. But, when you compare Collins to PJ, Olynyk, Grant, Isaac, Kuzma and PWill, which of them has a better combination of rebounding and 3 point shooting and block rate? I kind of like the theoretical skill set of a mobile four who hits 3's, but can also post up and drive some and can help in the paint a little when Lively is drawn to the perimeter. Theoretically, that might be Maxi, except Maxi is a statue on offense and is rarely available. The other thing I kind of like is Utah may be more interested in draft capital than our young players. I like the depth chart that remains if it is just THJ and draft capital. In fact, this is what I mean when I talk about pushing GWill to the bench:
Lively/(Maxi/Powell/Holmes)
Collins/GWill
DJJ/OMax (GWill/Green in the playoffs)
Kyrie/Green
Luka/Exum
Sorry, I think that fixes some things. It isn't perfect (and we will never be satisfied that we have every spot adequately covered), but I wouldn't dismiss it either. Are we sure we are getting better than this by waiting until this summer?
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This is a late response. I had it in another window and never sent it.
I have a bit of a problem slamming Timmy on defense and using this seasons DEPM to do it. When he spending significant minutes at the PF spot with Powell at center, its not surprising the numbers are terrible. That is not a Timmy problem. Its a roster construction problem that both Timmy and Powell are getting hammered for. In the last two seasons (a much bigger sample) his DEPM was over 50%. He is not a particularly good defender, but is also not nearly as bad as that small sample metric is making it out to be.
Are we sure Collins would be replacing Williams in the starting lineup? Grant is a better defender and a better floor spacer. We already have Lively for vertical spacing and Luka and Kyrie for offense in general. Our biggest weakness is size and rebounding in the second unit. Collins would also be more useful playing with Maxi or small ball big than another P&R big. There is a real argument that his fit would be better with the second unit.
If our next offseason does not end up with a better roster than that, I will consider it a failure.
I don't have any super strong feelings about John Collins (other than I believe Ainge will flip him). But, he's shooting very similarly to THJ from 3 at .383 (vs 384 for THJ) and .442 from the corner (THJ is .366 from the corner). Collins is creating 40% of his made 2's this season and is .714 at the rim. THJ creates 35% of his 2's and is .506 at the rim. I don't agree the offense would suffer from a THJ/Collins swap.
But, what about Collins vs. the other choices at the four. We have to bear in mind that there is reporting out there that we had interest in Naz Reid this summer. We don't know if that was in addition to or instead of GWill, but Dallas was pursuing non-stars for this position (and got one in GWill). It isn't like Naz Reid is some fantastic rebounder. He doesn't shoot 3's as well as Collins and he's never been a plus player in On/Off. Yet, he was more universally endorsed than almost all of the names above.
I'll exempt Siakam and Markkanen as they aren't attainable in an in-season deal. But, when you compare Collins to PJ, Olynyk, Grant, Isaac, Kuzma and PWill, which of them has a better combination of rebounding and 3 point shooting and block rate? I kind of like the theoretical skill set of a mobile four who hits 3's, but can also post up and drive some and can help in the paint a little when Lively is drawn to the perimeter. Theoretically, that might be Maxi, except Maxi is a statue on offense and is rarely available. The other thing I kind of like is Utah may be more interested in draft capital than our young players. I like the depth chart that remains if it is just THJ and draft capital. In fact, this is what I mean when I talk about pushing GWill to the bench:
Lively/(Maxi/Powell/Holmes)
Collins/GWill
DJJ/OMax (GWill/Green in the playoffs)
Kyrie/Green
Luka/Exum
Sorry, I think that fixes some things. It isn't perfect (and we will never be satisfied that we have every spot adequately covered), but I wouldn't dismiss it either. Are we sure we are getting better than this by waiting until this summer?
[/quote]
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
This is a late response. I had it in another window and never sent it.
I have a bit of a problem slamming Timmy on defense and using this seasons DEPM to do it. When he spending significant minutes at the PF spot with Powell at center, its not surprising the numbers are terrible. That is not a Timmy problem. Its a roster construction problem that both Timmy and Powell are getting hammered for. In the last two seasons (a much bigger sample) his DEPM was over 50%. He is not a particularly good defender, but is also not nearly as bad as that small sample metric is making it out to be.
Are we sure Collins would be replacing Williams in the starting lineup? Grant is a better defender and a better floor spacer. We already have Lively for vertical spacing and Luka and Kyrie for offense in general. Our biggest weakness is size and rebounding in the second unit. Collins would also be more useful playing with Maxi or small ball big than another P&R big. There is a real argument that his fit would be better with the second unit.
If our next offseason does not end up with a better roster than that, I will consider it a failure.
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