11-13-2023, 06:54 PM
(11-13-2023, 06:22 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I'm enjoying this conversation. I do want to challenge the bolded statement. Being better this season is probably mostly the result of trading for Kyrie. It feels really good that they turned the #10 pick into two younger assets (and didn't trade it for some over-the-hill star). It feels good that our MLE level signing isn't some 30 year old. But, Kyrie is the biggest difference and he probably falls in the win-now category more than he does "playing for the future" catagory...no?
Not directed at you necessarily as many people throw these terms around, but could someone come up with a definition for terms like "true contender" and "Championship Caliber" and the like. Where do we need to finish to be a true contender? We got to the final four a few years ago and people then said "yeah, but...". Would final four this year with two stars be enough to warrant true contention. Do you have to make the NBA finals to make a win-now trade worthwhile? This kind of matters to these conversations IMHO. If one thinks we are a 9 seed and a good trade might get us to 6, that is far different than someone who thinks we are a 4/5 seed and a good trade might get us to 2.
I think we end up vying for 4th/5th seed as constructed. Making the West Finals would be dependent on matchup. So, similar to 21-22. If we made a trade (call it Grant) and it cost us 2027 unprotected, but that probably ensured a WCF appearance. Is that good enough to be "true"? What is the line where it is OK to give up a pick and an asset? What is the line where it is pick, but not one of the kids?
I think there are some good points here and some good questions raised.
Paragraph one...you have a point, but then again, hasn't this fast start for the team been at least in part despite a slow start from Irving? That's kind of tongue in cheek, because I definitely think there's validity to your thought. But, I've also read several versions of this that pin 99% of the success at Lively's feet. I think some people really think the team has been "good center play" away from being a contender, basically during the Luka era. I think that's bonkers, but I do love what Lively is bringing and certainly think it's a factor.
As for the whole "true contender" debate. I'll admit, where that line gets drawn can seem a bit arbitrary, and our perspective on how the mavs fit into that scene is certainly subject to our cumulative biases from following the team through so many disappointments. If the point you're making is something like "forget whether or not the Mavs qualify for some short list, they should just go for it already" then I kind of agree. I just think it's silly to spend assets as fast as you snag them, that's all. If they were on that short list (arbitrary as it might seem, I think we'd know if they were) then fine - all in. And who knows, maybe they'll be even better than this 8-2 starts makes them look as we get deeper into the season.
For the last paragraph...well, that's the real question, isn't it? I'm just saying: 99% of us (myself included) KNEW getting Porzingis from the Knicks was a steal. A cheap price to pay for the dynasty that was sure to be formed around Luka/KP. And yet, Porzingis is now playing for Boston (as their 5th best starter, far from a star) and the Mavs are STILL paying NY for that failed experiment. STILL. That trade is hurting Luka and the Mavs NOW, like 5 years later! These decisions have consequences. Sometimes I think I was the only one traumatized by that situation. It was a BIG mistake, and started out as something that appeared to be such a no-brainer.
This is going to seem like such a cop out, and it kind of is, but I think it's true: We're debating philosophical directions here, and they're important, I suppose. But, at the end of the day what's really important is that whatever they do needs to work. Those who want to see them foster the youth will probably come around if they make a splash trade and the guy fits in right away, elevating the team, and then wants to stay here medium-long term. Those crying for this piece or that piece right now will eventually shut up if the team keeps getting better at this rate. Basically, they just need to start winning the transaction game. Look how much more fun this all is after ONE FREAKING SUMMER of them operating like a quality front office. ONE SUMMER. Imagine them not throwing picks out like prizes taped under Oprah's chairs for...idk...three straight years! How great might this team be then?! What kind of trade will they have the ammo to pull off at that point?