11-12-2023, 11:12 AM
(11-12-2023, 09:59 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: First, it feels unfair to state as fact that we aren't a 'center away from being a contender' and then go on to state a two way wing is the bigger need. Based on what? Are we a 'two way wing' away from being a contender? Goose/Gander.
Second, what are we trying (or needing) to fix with any addition (and what is the spread between what we have in the spot and what the addition would bring). Is perimeter D the issue? We are 13th in 3's allowed and 5th in percentage of points from 3 pointers. We aren't giving up points at the line. We are 5th in opponent points from FT's. Its all coming from 2 points (29th) and specifically from the paint (28th). To put a non-C/non-PF name to this, I'm not sure Alex Caruso fixes this. Sure, he does a better job of keeping 'his guy' out of the paint. What about the other four?
We are getting destroyed on the defensive glass. We are 26th in Opponent O-Reb% and 25th in total O-Reb's allowed. Again, does Alex Caruso fix that? I guess one could substitute OG for Caruso and help the rebounding. But, there is no way we are trading for a CAA client who can't be extended. Does DFS help our rebounding and PiP issue? Probably not.
The data comes from teamrankings.com which is a data site for gamblers. It is currently projecting us at 4th in the West at 48.7 wins. We are behind Denver at 58.3, Minnesota at 53.3 and GS at 50.5. Fifth place is Phoenix at 45.2 wins. 48 wins was my prediction, so I'm in agreement with this. But, the teams we probably match up with the worst are Denver and Minnesota. We need a bigger body in those matchups and no people, Drummond is not the answer.
Mvossman basically summed up what I was trying to say. I wrote "a dissertation" a couple of days ago why I think that, based on early and small sample on/off data. Mavs are being killed in the paint because perimeter defense is so leaky and because we don't really have big wings to guard best big wings, imho. Siakam and company were just posting up our wings and score easily over them. This also leads to a lot of help from centers which are than out of position for rebounding. When they play DJJ the situation is better, but he is limited offensively. That's why a wing that can be at least as good defender as DJJ and better offensively, is what I think Mavs need.
Nico didn't say rebounding is top priority. He said rebounding is a plus. Number one thing he said is a player that plays with physicality. Examples of such players (just to have a picture what a player that plays with physicality is) are imho Brooks, Smart, Draymond and similar. I don't think Poeltl plays with physicality. He is just big and strong.
Since you mentioned specific names. I don't think Caruso or DFS are the answer as they are too limited on offense. Sure it would be nice to have any of them, but I don't think they greatly change our ceiling. OG is certainly a great example of what we need, but I think (if) he will be traded, it will be to a place like Philly. Because they are more desperate and will offer more assets Mavs can. But, there are other two-way wings that could become available and we have mentioned them many times.