Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[DanSchwartzgan]

Whoa! What??? Why do you immediately jump to Poeltl???

We can fill in the blank with any physical rebounder we want I guess.  I happen to think Poeltl makes sense for several reasons.  One, he perfectly fits the criteria of rebounding and physicality.  His age puts him dead in his prime.  He's locked up for the same four years as Lively at a flat $19.5mm per year.  You get 48 minutes of center play for about 15% of the tax this year and less than that each year as Poeltl's number stays flat while the tax level goes up.  If we were thinking about Ayton and Capela, there is no reason to believe we wouldn't also consider Poeltl.

He's not a necessity on an underperforming Toronto team.  They can play Siakam, Boucher, Achiuwas and eventually Koloko at center.  They need to fix the logjam between Siakam, Poeltl, Barnes and Anunoby (positionally and skill-set wise).  Turning him for more than what they paid for him would look/feel like good front-office work.  Holmes plus the unprotected 2027 pick fits, but puts Dallas into the tax.  I'm wondering if it ends up instead being Holmes, Green and some protections on the 2027 pick backed up by the 2028 second if it doesn't convey.  Toronto could substitute Maxi for Holmes if they wish.  Green's outside shooting and connective passing would be a welcome addition in Toronto.  And, adding Green to the deal keeps Dallas out of the tax this season.

No, I don't want to trade Green.  But, this team is as good as I hoped and we would look completely different if we got 48 minutes of good defensive center play and Maxi/Powell doesn't provide that at a high enough level for the playoffs.  We also can't place our entire post-season bet on Maxi's health and Lively staying out of foul trouble the next two seasons.  I go back and forth on this a lot, but splitting the position with two high quality guys makes great sense to me.  Let Poeltl take the beating against starters for the next year or two and let Lively feast against backups.  By the time Lively is 21, Poeltl is only 30.  At some point there is a logical transition to Lively starting.  But it doesn't have to be now.

I really like the team we have left after such a move.  It is going to be really hard to develop Green, Hardy, OMax and Lively.  Green partially blocks Hardy for guard minutes and partially blocks OMax for defensive wing minutes.  If he's gone, you have one scorer and one defensive wing and one center you are trying to develop.  What you are left with is:

Center:  Poeltl/Lively/Powell

D Wing:  GWill/DJJ/Maxi/Exum/OMax

Scoring G:  Luka/Kyrie/THJ/Hardy/Curry

What you are essentially saying in such a deal is you trust DJJ relative to Josh more than you trust Powell/Maxi relative to Poeltl.  The 28 year old Poeltl is about as statistically consistent as they come.  You know pretty much exactly what you are getting per 36 and with his advanced stats.  His teams are always better when he's on the floor and if that happens with Lively getting all the other minutes, that will be quite a positive thing.  We take a slight ding to our 3 point shooting, but the D is better and D is where we have the most margin for improvement.