08-26-2023, 09:50 PM
(08-26-2023, 10:30 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Last season isn't necessarily predictive, but Hardy actually played more without either of our stars (427 minutes) than he did with one or both of them (281 minutes). 60% of his minutes were played without either superstar. Even if we want to add in the 113 minutes with Dinwiddie, 44% of Hardy's minutes were played without an NBA PG. Who knows if that will continue as our depth is much better now than before.
It appears to me we tried to do a couple of things this summer. 1. Add youth while also protecting them from being over exposed by adding corresponding low-dollar vets who actually got minutes last season. Curry, DJJ, Exum and Powell mean you don't have to rely on Hardy, OMax and Lively. You can give them developmental minutes as you don't have a ton invested in the vets. You can even sit the vets if one of the kids happens to pop. But, come playoff time, your fortunes won't be determined by the babies.
I think the other thing was 2. Give us options at the four (GWill, OMax, DJJ, Morris in addition to Maxi). If you look at the top Kyrie lineups with Luka, they are really small. Generally, Kyrie, Luka a center and two players from Green, THJ and Bullock. Even when Luka sat, we saw lineups with a center and three guys the size of THJ or smaller. Out of the top 20 Kyrie lineups last season, there were only 52 minutes where you had Maxi and a big on the floor. I've seen some national pundits pan the Kyrie Experiment as a failure based on macro data (the record after the trade), but at the micro data level you discover we just didn't have the horses to guard anyone in the front-court.
The sample sizes in Irving's time here are just tiny. We had lineups that had O-ratings over 120. We also had a few lineups with good defensive stats. In general, the best lineups included Green and THJ and the worst lineups included Bullock. Subbing Williams for Bullock and giving Kyrie and Luka a little time to figure things out could make a substantial difference.
One of my goals if I were constructing the team, would be to allow myself more minutes of Luka and Kyrie together if I wanted. The O was fantastic when they were together and we did some things to help the D this summer. I really like the potential of Exum and Hardy on the floor together as a means to this end. But you can certainly put Curry in the Hardy slot if it isn't working and you can certainly keep one of the stars on the floor with Hardy if Exum isn't working. THJ, Green and GWill are going to get their minutes...probably about 84 a game. Luka and Kyrie are going to split about 78 and a center is going to play 42-48. That leaves about 30-36 minutes a game for Hardy, Exum, DJJ, Maxi, Curry and the Rookies to fight over. Injuries/Rest will impact that.
That is a lot of good players fighting over scraps, which is why some kind of 2-for-1 trade makes so much sense. THJ lineups with Luka and Irving were generally very good, but there are ways to spend that money that bring more dimensions to the game than just shooting. Until Lillard is finally dealt, I'm still keeping a Tyler Herro trade in the back of my mind. The idea is to always have two creators from among Luka, Kyrie, Herro on the floor at all times. Add in a center (Powell, Maxi, Lively and Small-Ball) and a bunch of wings from among Green, GWill, Exum, Curry, DJJ and OMax and the roster makes more sense than it does currently. The outgoing in the deal I have in mind is THJ, Hardy and Holmes. Holmes is necessary because I'm making Miami take Nurkic as part of getting Lillard.
Nice analysis. Regarding Hardy's minutes, I think there are a few things to keep in mind regarding the lineups he played in. Jaden saw some garbage-time minutes last season where Kyrie, Luka and Dinwiddie obviously didn't play. We also had a stretch of games where Luka was hurt and Jaden played a lot of minutes so he necessarily had minutes there off the bench without Kyrie. Then there were several games where both Kyrie and Luka were out. In those games, we seemed to try out Josh and Jaden as coordinating the offense. Those were obviously good opportunities to experiment with new lineups.
I think Jaden also got some minutes with Mckinley Wright running the point.
I expect most of Jaden's minutes this coming season will come with either Kyrie or Luka on the floor unless one of them is injured. Dante Exum might change that though if he really can play regular rotation minutes as the point guard. I look forward to seeing this play out. Exum looks very promising (Sam Vecenie seems to agree).