Trade & FA 2023-24: HOU Targeting Mikal Bridges again!| Mitchell is LAL #1 Target

[Scott41theMavs]

I'd just like if we had a stop-gap center for Luka to play with untill Lively is ready (Luka have not played with a starting caliber C his entire carreer here). Holmes or Hardaway to match salaries (maybe for Valanciunas or Nurkic that aren't positive value we don't need to add a 1st rounder? We still have a couple of seconds to play with) . We already have our closing lineup - Luka, Kyrie and our three 3nD players (Green/Williams/Kleber) and we also have some good role players to help untill our rookies are ready (Curry-Hardy, DJJ-Prosper, Powell-Lively).

My concern has somewhat to do with Lively's readiness or lack thereof, but it goes a bit beyond that. For most playoff-level teams, I would say that a Holmes-Lively-Powell-Maxi center rotation is fine. However, this team is built around two superstars who are (to put it charitably) below-average perimeter defenders. That means that the pieces around them have to be phenomenal defenders, yes, but even more importantly, a rim protecting big is sine-qua-non (in crude English, they're completely screwed and not winning poop without it). While Holmes (presuming comfortably that he returns to 2020-21 form) has many admirable qualities in terms of what he brings to the table, he is not one of the league's efficacious paint protectors. As for DP, while he is a quality perimeter switch defender, we are all aware that not only his rim protection but also his post defense make Lorenzo Williams look like Bill Russell. My primary goal for him, short of waving a mean towel until garbage time arrives, is to never, ever, ever be on the floor with more than one of Luka, Kai, Hardy, or Curry. Anything short of that is just plain surrendering on defense. No no no.

If this isn't another mulligan year, I believe the Mavs will essentially have two choices - 1) trade for a paint-protecting starting big, or 2) Throw Lively to the wolves as a 20 mpg starter from day one. His calling card is paint protection. The 20 mpg limit will have more to do with him averaging 5.5 fouls per game this year than anything else in that scenario. Then you also hope that Holmes can provide enough defense when Lively sits, and that Maxi stays healthy enough to be the third center in lieu of DP. 

Obviously, I find option two very, very shaky.

I think they have to find a way to bring in Capela, Allen, Ayton, or Claxton. I think Capela is a no-go unless we see the Holmes-2nds trade on the 6th, and as a Mavs fan I would be furious if Hardy, Green, or the 27 was included in such a deal unless another juicy asset was coming back to us. My sense is that, unless the Hawks really want Holmes, we would have already seen Capela on roster here if it were going to happen. I think Ayton likewise is only acceptable without HG27, due to the distressed value of his albatross contract, and I don't think the Suns do that (and KL might leave the board then anyway). I think it would take two of HG27 to obtain Claxton, and yes, I do that, but I'm not sure the Mavs do. I would only give one of HG27 for Allen, but I'm not sure the Cavs do that. 

TLDR, I think either the Mavs trade for Ayton on the 6th, or we're going into the year with that shaky option two and this might very well be another lottery year.