Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[DanSchwartzgan]

What little he does while on the floor is good, but the quantity (per-36) is not.

I don't see how the Mavs can offer more than MLE-ish (or slightly more) to Green in an extension, which with raises should give him something like 4 yrs $58M (plus or minus $3M), which I think would start in the 13-14M range.

Welcome to the club.  $14mm has been my number all along.

I think the thing that per-36 misses on Josh (but doesn’t miss with most players) is he’s way better when he actually gets 36 versus taking what he does with lesser minutes projected to 36.  It has been that way every season.  When he played 20-29 minutes last season, his per-36 points/rebounds were 11.0 and 3.4.  When he played 30 minutes or more (18 games last season), he averaged 35.5 minutes and points/boards were 15.2/4.6.  That is a massive 38%/34% bump for actual (when he gets those minutes) versus projected.  

His efficiency also goes up with more minutes.  30+ games TS% was over .700 and his 3% was .465.  He did that on 10 attempts in high minute games compared to 8.5 attempts per 36 in games he only got 20-29 minutes.   He’s even more cautious with attempts when he plays under 20 minutes (7.1 per-36).

Bottom line is Josh doesn’t need to take “another leap” other than in minutes.  If he can come close to 15/4.6 on anywhere near that kind of shooting we have an absolute gem who is still at a very young age.  He doesn’t have to ‘do’ anything different from what he’s already shown he’s capable of doing.  Kidd is the one who has to change something.  With Reggie gone, that is much easier.