08-08-2023, 02:43 PM
(08-08-2023, 02:15 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: I was complicating it, but now I'm simplifying too much? I never said this approach is 100% of your evaluation, just a good starting point. It only evaluates a player's current worth/cost, does not project out, which obviously needs to be factored in with a multitude of other factors.
You say J.Allen is not worth the Max, which is IMO common sensical... he's not and I never said he was. I said he's a $30m player. Again, what do you think he's worth given you disagree with me? Are you saying he's not worth more than his $20m contract?
Re: THJ, I said he's a $11m/yr player. You disagreed, by saying he's worth more than MLE ($12.4m). Again, you are being vague. What do you think his worth is, then? Specifically. He would have neutral value IF what's coming in is of the same value and cost. It's math.
Point with Lively is that he has terrific value with little to no cost, only cost being his salary. OMax, on the other hand, has a cost of his and Holmes' salary (or the vast majority of Holmes' salary). Looking at cost and value differently, you're able to better evaluate your moves.
If the unprotected 27FRP is of value higher than spots 25-30, we're screwed anyway and this is all academic. You don't manage your current and future roster with the notion you're going to suck in 3 years.
I am being vague regarding player values because player values are vague. They depend on a lot of outside factors and vary based on circumstances.
Lively was not little to no cost. It was a lottery pick, which are very scarce. His cost was significantly more than Omax (if we wanted to trade into the lottery, we would have had to take on way more salary than we did for Omax).
Lots of things can happen in 3 years and catastrophic injuries are always a concern in the year for that pick. That picks value is all about how other teams value it. My guess is its value would roughly equivalent to late lottery, but it could be more depending on how down other teams are on this FO.