08-08-2023, 02:15 PM
(08-08-2023, 01:23 PM)mvossman Wrote: I think you are greatly simplifying player value in trades. Its not as simple as putting a number value on them and then deciding they are a positive or negative asset based on that. Good players can be over priced, and yet still get value in return. That is because the other team has no avenue to get a player of equal value, even if they are willing to overpay.
I am not sure Allen is worth the max, especially given his recent playoff performance.
I think Timmy is worth more than the MLE. Maybe not his contract, but more than MLE. He could be neutral value in a trade depending on the circumstances.
Don't get the "pennies from heaven" comment regarding Lively. He was a lottery pick. We have made very few of those in the last 20+ years. That is the biggest asset we had with the possible exception of the unprotected 27. That is a significant investment.
I was complicating it, but now I'm simplifying too much? I never said this approach is 100% of your evaluation, just a good starting point. It only evaluates a player's current worth/cost, does not project out, which obviously needs to be factored in with a multitude of other factors.
You say J.Allen is not worth the Max, which is IMO common sensical... he's not and I never said he was. I said he's a $30m player. Again, what do you think he's worth given you disagree with me? Are you saying he's not worth more than his $20m contract?
Re: THJ, I said he's a $11m/yr player. You disagreed, by saying he's worth more than MLE ($12.4m). Again, you are being vague. What do you think his worth is, then? Specifically. He would have neutral value IF what's coming in is of the same value and cost. It's math.
Point with Lively is that he has terrific value with little to no cost, only cost being his salary. OMax, on the other hand, has a cost of his and Holmes' salary (or the vast majority of Holmes' salary). Looking at cost and value differently, you're able to better evaluate your moves.
If the unprotected 27FRP is of value higher than spots 25-30, we're screwed anyway and this is all academic. You don't manage your current and future roster with the notion you're going to suck in 3 years.