08-08-2023, 01:23 PM
(08-08-2023, 12:58 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: If not $30m/yr, what is J.Allen's worth in your estimation?
Looking at actual value is simplifying the equation, not complicating it. It makes what is nebulous and quantifies it. It's like teams putting a $ value to each pick in the NFL draft. It's all about taking the Apron 1 as a finite bucket and building an optimal 15-man roster by properly allocating that finite bucket. This is why players on rookie contracts are worth far more than their salary.
I keep hearing people on this board talking about THJ's "value", and then making insane proposals based upon that "feeling". You can argue my $11m/yr THJ appraisal, but I think it's impossible to argue his value is worth his $17m/yr contract.
What have we actually invested in the C position? Holmes was the price of getting OMax (putting OMax's cost at $14.7m). Lively was pennies from Heaven by tanking and getting rid of Bertans. That leaves the salaries of Powell, McGee, and Lively (actual salary, not value)... $4.0m + $5.7m + $4.7m = $14.4m (8.4% of the apron). Are we heavily invested at the C spot? Nope.
The Mavs have already stated they don't expect Lively to contribute for some time. Given his limited minutes at Duke and what we saw in the Summer League, I don't think you can argue with what the Mavs have already stated.
IMO, you are failing to factor in asset management. At the TDL 2026 we would have an expiring $20m 27yo J.Allen and a $5.2m 22yo Lively (with 1.5 years left on his rookie contract). This gives you 2.5 years of Lively getting 16-20mins a game in backing up J.Allen. At that time you make the best decision for the largest need on the roster.
I think you are greatly simplifying player value in trades. Its not as simple as putting a number value on them and then deciding they are a positive or negative asset based on that. Good players can be over priced, and yet still get value in return. That is because the other team has no avenue to get a player of equal value, even if they are willing to overpay.
I am not sure Allen is worth the max, especially given his recent playoff performance.
I think Timmy is worth more than the MLE. Maybe not his contract, but more than MLE. He could be neutral value in a trade depending on the circumstances.
Don't get the "pennies from heaven" comment regarding Lively. He was a lottery pick. We have made very few of those in the last 20+ years. That is the biggest asset we had with the possible exception of the unprotected 27. That is a significant investment.