08-08-2023, 12:58 PM
(08-08-2023, 12:07 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Neither, especially Allen being worth $30m/yr.
More to the point, the hangup you have about what you think of their true contractual worth isn't really the "aha" puzzle piece you seem to believe. A player underplaying or overplaying their ACTUAL contract factors into their desirability, absolutely. That's a relatively simple concept you're unnecessarily complicating, I think.
Even MORE more to the point, the Mavs don't need a center badly enough to spend Green or Hardy AND that unprotected '27. I don't think they need one badly enough to spend even one of those assets. You keep acting like Lively isn't going make a dent for three years. I suppose you might be right about that, but I can GUARANTEE the Mavs don't see it that way. That's basically his entire first contract. So, given where they were with the overall roster and that position, specifically, when the pick was made, it seems rather apparent that they expect him to contribute sooner.
I would love to have Allen, don't get me wrong, but I don't think the combo of Powell, Holmes and especially Kleber is the end of the world, and I think Lively is probably making a fairly significant contribution in year 2. If Lively can't contribute something in year 2, that was a bad pick. But, they need to find out before they send the last good assets they have out on another center.
I do not. He's not a difference maker, even among defensive centers. Maybe I'd feel differently if he didn't just ruin his team's playoff run. Lord knows one playoff run isn't the end of any player's story - he could be better in the future, but the level of trade compensation you're suggesting might get you in the conversation for someone like Siakim.
If not $30m/yr, what is J.Allen's worth in your estimation?
Looking at actual value is simplifying the equation, not complicating it. It makes what is nebulous and quantifies it. It's like teams putting a $ value to each pick in the NFL draft. It's all about taking the Apron 1 as a finite bucket and building an optimal 15-man roster by properly allocating that finite bucket. This is why players on rookie contracts are worth far more than their salary.
I keep hearing people on this board talking about THJ's "value", and then making insane proposals based upon that "feeling". You can argue my $11m/yr THJ appraisal, but I think it's impossible to argue his value is worth his $17m/yr contract.
What have we actually invested in the C position? Holmes was the price of getting OMax (putting OMax's cost at $14.7m). Lively was pennies from Heaven by tanking and getting rid of Bertans. That leaves the salaries of Powell, McGee, and Lively (actual salary, not value)... $4.0m + $5.7m + $4.7m = $14.4m (8.4% of the apron). Are we heavily invested at the C spot? Nope.
The Mavs have already stated they don't expect Lively to contribute for some time. Given his limited minutes at Duke and what we saw in the Summer League, I don't think you can argue with what the Mavs have already stated.
IMO, you are failing to factor in asset management. At the TDL 2026 we would have an expiring $20m 27yo J.Allen and a $5.2m 22yo Lively (with 1.5 years left on his rookie contract). This gives you 2.5 years of Lively getting 16-20mins a game in backing up J.Allen. At that time you make the best decision for the largest need on the roster.