Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[F Gump]

I'm in agreement about it being Holmes rather than THJ who is at the core of this.  THJ is a salary match for Capela, so there is no mandate for McGee to be included and you don't "overpay" for something that you don't have to do.  But, Holmes misses being a trade match for Capela by himself by about $1,070,000.  So another salary HAS to be added and Dallas rightfully wants it to be McGee.  That will cost something.  People can debate what that something is.

We covered this ground the other day, but if Dallas sends out two salaries, they have to get back to 14 players.  Holmes/McGee outgoing (no matter where McGee ends up) for Capela incoming is a $2.9mm bump to the Mav's payroll.  We only have $4.1mm of space under the tax and it will cost ~$2mm to add a 14th body.  My squeamishness with the idea that this is as simple as wait to September and pay cash or cash + a second to someone to take McGee is this will throw Dallas $800k into the tax.  How much does Dallas lose in tax distribution for that $800k?  Is it $20mm?  Whatever it is, that is too much for Capela.  

So, it feels like there would need to be something else at some point.  I'm not talking about Hardy, Green or even something happening before the season starts.  But, at some point, Dallas would likely look for a way to reduce salary back below the tax line if there is some kind of Holmes/Capela based deal in September.

You make a good point, and I agree the Mavs wouldn't want to forfeit a share of tax distributions, assuming it's going to be a fairly big number. Have you seen any current estimates of what that share might look like?

Technically, the Mavs could do Holmes-McGee and still be under the tax line, by filling that 14th slot with a rookie UDFA, then never using the 15th slot.

But it would be tight enough to where that solution might still make them feel they must look for a later swap to lower the payroll to a more comfortable number, as you mention. But the fact they can be under the line, and stay under, while doing nothing could make Holmes-McGee for Capela an easier idea for them to buy into conceptually.