07-27-2023, 03:51 PM
(07-27-2023, 02:56 PM)F Gump Wrote: To me the obvious trade match is Holmes for Capela, which offers ATL a 12M center making 12M, plus 8M to spend elsewhere, for their 20M center making 20M. I think they would do that -- it's exactly what they are looking for. No one is giving added assets for a $20M center they don't really want or need. I can't see the Mavs bidding against themselves, or adding more assets when one-for-one it's already a fair swap. The 8M to spend elsewhere is the evener that bridges the difference between the 2 players.
But it doesn't satisfy the trade rules. Holmes-McGee does (saving then 2.5M/year), and also satisfies the Mavs' need to lower the body count at the C position and their desire to move McGee. It also keeps the Mavs below the tax line.
So this "insider info" in my view would have ATL's stance being "find a taker for McGee where we get $8M in savings, and we'll do the deal" and now it's on the Mavs to figure out how to do that (or to say no). Waiving McGee doesn't get it done, because the Mavs' need his salary included in order to match Capela (although the team that gets McGee could waive him if they want). I would think "McGee + cash" to a team with cap room - or one needing a really cheap backup center - should be doable.
I don't think that's hard. Which would fit with the idea that the deal could already be all lined up, but just waiting to Sept 6 because of Holmes status, while everyone speculates as they see nothing happening.
I'm in agreement about it being Holmes rather than THJ who is at the core of this. THJ is a salary match for Capela, so there is no mandate for McGee to be included and you don't "overpay" for something that you don't have to do. But, Holmes misses being a trade match for Capela by himself by about $1,070,000. So another salary HAS to be added and Dallas rightfully wants it to be McGee. That will cost something. People can debate what that something is.
We covered this ground the other day, but if Dallas sends out two salaries, they have to get back to 14 players. Holmes/McGee outgoing (no matter where McGee ends up) for Capela incoming is a $2.9mm bump to the Mav's payroll. We only have $4.1mm of space under the tax and it will cost ~$2mm to add a 14th body. My squeamishness with the idea that this is as simple as wait to September and pay cash or cash + a second to someone to take McGee is this will throw Dallas $800k into the tax. How much does Dallas lose in tax distribution for that $800k? Is it $20mm? Whatever it is, that is too much for Capela.
So, it feels like there would need to be something else at some point. I'm not talking about Hardy, Green or even something happening before the season starts. But, at some point, Dallas would likely look for a way to reduce salary back below the tax line if there is some kind of Holmes/Capela based deal in September.