Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[F Gump]

Yes, I was too optimistic in my first post. 2 supermax deals allows you to have 5 MLE type players (average salary, some can be paid more, some less). Still, that is 7 players over the minimum. Basically the playoff rotation with a couple of rookies or ring chasing vets to complete the playoff rotation.

I think contenders will operate in the area between first and second apron.  At this moment, basically all contenders wannabe with their stars out of their rookie contract, are above the first apron. Denver, Boston, Miami and Milwaukee are over Apron 1. GSW, Phoenix and Clippers are over the second apron. Philadelphia is a bit over 172, too lazy to check if that is right above or below the second apron. These teams are immediately out of contention if they are reducing their salaries below the first apron, imho. That is why I don't see them doing it, until they decide it is time for a rebuild.

"I think contenders will operate in the area between first and second apron "

Possible. That's where we are starting, more or less. 

But there are a lot of mechanisms built into the new rules that are intended to push payroll downward, especially once it gets past Apron 1. Because the brackets from tax line to Apron 1 to Apron 2 aren't that big, that will naturally entice teams to just drop a bit and stay below the next level, rather than have the limits that come into play by exceeding one apron, then the other.

Once you get past Apron 1, the trade match rules are harder, and trades can only reduce payroll, FORCING such teams to lower their payroll every time they make a trade. 

We also have to keep in mind that some of the new restrictive rules didn't kick in this year. But when this season ends, the incentive to lower payroll will increase.

And while we tend to ignore the tax, because it is just owner money, it is already massive for some teams. I think GS is tracking to pay over $200M in tax this season! They were already whining about how much they have to pay, yet in 2 years, there will be a sizable increase in tax rates for those teams just a few mill over Apron 1 (especially repeater tax teams like GS), but a decrease in tax below that. The NBA wants teams like GS to get the message that they don't want to encourage every-year tax-paying, nor spending way past the tax. Similar spending as a rule is their intent, to enhance competition.

So it will be interesting to see what happens with teams that are freely spending now -- in a year or 2 will they dial it back?