Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[Mavs2021]

If it makes you feel any better, Holmes was the 16th ranked center by 538’s Raptor WAR measure two seasons ago when he actually played (Powell was 30th last season).  If you look at EPM, Powell’s 83 ranks ahead of 12 of the guys on your list.  I’m not going to argue that Powell is the 18th best center based on that single metric.  

I’ll say what I’ve always said.  Powell is one of the best backup centers in the league.  He has a skill set that is hard to replicate (being consistently in the 90+ percentile as a roll-man means by definition that you are really good at it).  I’ve argued that the team wins when he plays (+6.2 on court last season and +9.3 On-Off) and ultimately the goal here is winning games rather than individual stats.  He shoots incredibly efficiently (which is part of why the advanced stats love him, WS = 5.3).  

The offense is better when he plays (7.5 points) and the defense is better when he plays (-2.4).  Both of those numbers are from 82games.com.   Now, 82games.com shows he gets absolutely brutalized by his direct opponent at center.  The dichotomy between getting abused and still winning is part of what makes Powell so difficult to grade.  Same goes for rebounding.  He’s terrible at it from a totals standpoint.  But, when he plays the team gets 49.8 percent of all rebounds and when he doesn’t play the team gets 45.5 percent.  BTW, that is much better than the 18/10 guy so many here love (team rebounding goes down when he plays…so does the winning).  I’d love Powell to be flashier and put up better individual numbers.  But the reason he keeps getting minutes is the team does TEAM things better when he is on the court.

The problem is these are largely regular season stats. No opposing coaches really give a flying f*** about Dwight Powell. And when the play-offs roll around their Dwight Powell schemes take 15 seconds: Stop the lob pass. The end. The only times we won play-off series with Dwight was when the whole team shot the lights out for a few rounds until the Warriors ran a lay-up/Looney abuse drill on us in the WCFs.

Advanced stats need to be put into context and they can´t account for everything. You wouldn´t win five regular season games with five Dwight Powell, even if they are all advanced stats winning players.