07-07-2023, 11:47 AM
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2023, 11:57 AM by DanSchwartzgan.)
Conspiracy Theory Alert:
Probably the most commonly held belief about Lillard to Miami is that Brooklyn will be the third team and give up a pick and take on Herro. Herro removed Miami from his social media and has been quoted as saying he’s ending up with the Nets. The idea is Brooklyn would add a pick to the two picks Miami can give and Brooklyn would end up with a starting lineup of Dinwiddie/Herro/Bridges/Cam and Claxton (not too bad). They’d have to send salary to Portland with the likely outgoing being DFS and O’Neale.
Did we just gum that up with the offer sheet to Thybulle, basically forcing a change in the deal? Aaron Goodwin only has four active clients and Lillard and Thybulle are two of them. If Portland acquires DFS and expiring O’Neale, do they pay Thybulle? Maybe Portland was in on it (it was VERY publicly ‘rumored’ and they did match very quickly). Maybe they felt cornered into what Brooklyn was pushing and Nico threw them a lifeline. It is pretty clear to me that Miami and Dame will eventually get what they want, but Portland can legitimately fight off an O’Neale offer if they are paying Thybulle $10mm.
So, how does Dallas enter into this. Some will immediately jump on Dorian or even O’Neale (and those aren’t bad). But, if I’m Nico and I’m working back channel with Portland, I’m telling them I’ll give you another first if I can end up with Claxton and Jovic with McGee outgoing. Now that is a deal I can get behind giving up the 2027 unprotected first for. Claxton is our young rim-protecting mobile big. But, he’s a flight risk. Jovic is the compensation for that risk. Who plays center in Brooklyn? Portland forces them to take two years of Nurkic and McGee ends up in tanking Portland. We can muck this up 100 different ways, but the simple version is:
Miami: Lillard
Portland: DFS/Robinson/McGee 2xMiami firsts, 1xDallas first and 1x Brooklyn first
Dallas: Claxton/Jovic
Brooklyn: Herro/Nurkic
I think Dallas and Miami are quite pleased. Portland gets the four firsts they want and DFS is a decent fit. The issue might be Brooklyn. Claxton is a flight risk for them too and they seem to value Herro. It was fairly clear in the playoffs that Claxton didn’t have the size to hang with the beasts of the east. So, maybe Brooklyn would value Nurkic. Or maybe the first from Brooklyn has to be adjusted. I won’t get into all of the other variations, but this is my conspiracy theory as to why we did Thybulle like we did, why we don’t seem to be too worried about moving McGee and why nothing is happening right now (we have to wait for Lillard to Miami).
Probably the most commonly held belief about Lillard to Miami is that Brooklyn will be the third team and give up a pick and take on Herro. Herro removed Miami from his social media and has been quoted as saying he’s ending up with the Nets. The idea is Brooklyn would add a pick to the two picks Miami can give and Brooklyn would end up with a starting lineup of Dinwiddie/Herro/Bridges/Cam and Claxton (not too bad). They’d have to send salary to Portland with the likely outgoing being DFS and O’Neale.
Did we just gum that up with the offer sheet to Thybulle, basically forcing a change in the deal? Aaron Goodwin only has four active clients and Lillard and Thybulle are two of them. If Portland acquires DFS and expiring O’Neale, do they pay Thybulle? Maybe Portland was in on it (it was VERY publicly ‘rumored’ and they did match very quickly). Maybe they felt cornered into what Brooklyn was pushing and Nico threw them a lifeline. It is pretty clear to me that Miami and Dame will eventually get what they want, but Portland can legitimately fight off an O’Neale offer if they are paying Thybulle $10mm.
So, how does Dallas enter into this. Some will immediately jump on Dorian or even O’Neale (and those aren’t bad). But, if I’m Nico and I’m working back channel with Portland, I’m telling them I’ll give you another first if I can end up with Claxton and Jovic with McGee outgoing. Now that is a deal I can get behind giving up the 2027 unprotected first for. Claxton is our young rim-protecting mobile big. But, he’s a flight risk. Jovic is the compensation for that risk. Who plays center in Brooklyn? Portland forces them to take two years of Nurkic and McGee ends up in tanking Portland. We can muck this up 100 different ways, but the simple version is:
Miami: Lillard
Portland: DFS/Robinson/McGee 2xMiami firsts, 1xDallas first and 1x Brooklyn first
Dallas: Claxton/Jovic
Brooklyn: Herro/Nurkic
I think Dallas and Miami are quite pleased. Portland gets the four firsts they want and DFS is a decent fit. The issue might be Brooklyn. Claxton is a flight risk for them too and they seem to value Herro. It was fairly clear in the playoffs that Claxton didn’t have the size to hang with the beasts of the east. So, maybe Brooklyn would value Nurkic. Or maybe the first from Brooklyn has to be adjusted. I won’t get into all of the other variations, but this is my conspiracy theory as to why we did Thybulle like we did, why we don’t seem to be too worried about moving McGee and why nothing is happening right now (we have to wait for Lillard to Miami).
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