Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[dirkfansince1998]

What I LIKE about the proposed Ayton deal:

1) Holmes (and hopefully McGee) are outgoing. If Holmes isn’t outgoing, I flatly don’t bring another 5 onto the roster. Period.

2) Ayton’s body type, athletic profile and ability to play as a pick and roll big make him a good fit here (in theory).

The problems:

1) anyone who calls him “skilled” is off-base, imho. He has no offensive iso game, in the post, or otherwise. That’s FINE with me, because this is a pick and roll team. However, is HE fine with that? He seems like another Porzingis to me - a guy who will want the ball in situations wherein it does not benefit the team for him to have it. Does the way he’s feeling about that sort of thing have an impact on his enthusiasm to run the floor, set good screens and move his feet on defense? Sure looks that way to me.

2) he’s PAID like he DOES have an iso game on offense, that’s for sure. Again, he does not. This is NOT a player who you can tell “go make something happen out there for the next three minutes while Luka sits” and yet his cap number reflects the need for him to be that guy. And again, i think he sees himself in that light, so not ideal.

You know what type of 6’11”, 7’ guy works in the modern NBA? The kind who moves like he’s 6’7”, 6’8”. Ayton COULD be that guy, but has demonstrated time and again that his motor isn’t up to it. He literally just got a coach fired, and now his team is trying to dump him on a sucker. If he comes here, there will be times he’s effective enough to change the complexion of the team and games, for sure. But mark my words: IN THE LAST 5 MINUTES OF AN ELIMINATION PLAYOFF GAME, HIS ASS WILL BE ON THE BENCH. Sorry, not interested in that for anything north of the MLE.

Looking at Ayton´s individual performance we are two years removed from a playoff run that had most fans and media talking heads discussing how many DPOY awards he would collect in his career. He was doing it all. Switching onto the perimeter. Defending the post. Protecting the rim. Against the best possible competition. The last guy that at least slowed down Jokic. Dominating AD. Taking away LBJ´s and PG´s matchup hunting with his ability to switch onto them.

Defensive matchup numbers from that run. Defended by Ayton...

Giannis 34/67 FG 50.7%
Jokic 27/64 FG 42.2%
AD 12/32 FG 37.5%
LeBron 9/27 FG 33.3%
PG 6/21 FG 28.6%
Lopez 7/20 FG 35%

And now the difficult question. How do you compare a 22 game sample size of a highly motivated Ayton playing some of the best bigmen defense we have seen over the last 10 years vs a two year sample size of low energy, lack of focus and mediocre impact.
Is it the usual delusional pipe dream of fans and teams that player x/y/z was stuck in a bad situation and will turn back into his best version once he leaves the toxic environment. Or is it realistic to assume that Ayton can be the player we saw during the 20/21 playoff run?