06-09-2023, 03:21 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2023, 03:27 PM by Ghost of Podkolzin.)
(06-09-2023, 02:36 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Don’t let the following comments lead you to believe I don’t appreciate the effort. It is a fun and interesting exercise. There is a bit of irony here as people have posted and snarked and screamed at me for months about 18/10 with efficient shooting as it relates to how great Wood is and how Kidd is screwing him. Yet, here we are with an 18/10 guy with efficient shooting…AND…MUCH BETTER DEFENSE, and he is somewhere between 17th and 26th depending on which of your posts I go by.
It would probably help give this more credibility if you showed your math. Then we could have a healthy conversation about why there aren’t any defensive metrics. Which defensive metric(s). Why no on-court metrics. What exactly is meant by distribution and availability? What about free throw shooting. Are you using FG% or TS% or EFG% or what for your shooting metric. How are you weighting things. I think you want everyone on an even footing and then you can add a factor for age or salary or availability (Jokic will obviously be #1, but then you can give him a -50 for availability and take him out of consideration for this conversation).
Point of all of this being I can probably model this to prove whatever I want to. Maybe we could agree on the model first and then debate the outcomes.
Regarding the different posts, I've simply pulled out the weighted categories to highlight specialties. The first is overall center. Second is defense only. Third is Mavs Need (Rebounding, Defense, and Availability).
You and I agree 100% on Wood. Are you talking about Ayton as the 18/10 guy? If so, I've repeatedly posted he's a $20m/year player making $40m of his 3yr contract dead money/overpay. PHX is going to have to waive off $10m-$15m next year in contract to move Ayton. That's why I've said if we're getting Ayton, they're taking on Bertans and will get back value in a package like THJ and Bullock.
Why show my math when I can sell it to a franchise or get a GM job like Hollinger did
Seriously tho, I'm still working on it and tweaking it. Sure you can manipulate weights and multipliers to prove a point, and sure defense is the toughest to measure. Stats like blocks and steals could show a lazy defender who gambles a lot (steals in passing lanes or blocks help side leaving their assignment), or show an all-world defender. In some ways defense is like pornography... you know it when you see it. That's why I love to hear from players who they think are the best defenders. Today's defensive game with switching makes the measurables SO difficult.
The thing I will say for my model tho, is that IMO there's little argument that the overall nails the first 4 in order: Jokic, Embid, AD, JJJ... all bringing very diverse attributes to the position.
You also have dynamics like teammates and schemes. An all-world defender on a D'Antony team is easy to measure (e.g. The Matrix in PHX) while you have to question how good Middleton is when he is playing with Lopez, the Freak, and Jrue.