05-31-2023, 06:47 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2023, 06:49 AM by DanSchwartzgan.)
(05-30-2023, 11:22 PM)SleepingHero Wrote:
2022: 11th pick for 2023 1st from DEN, 2023 1st from WAS, 2023 1st from Detroit, all protected...the Knicks flip 1 of those picks to clear Kemba's 8 mil of salary. Net: 2 FRPs+8 mil of salary relief.
2019: MIN trades 11+Saric to the Suns for #6. Saric at the time was seen as a solid role player...on an okay contract was enough to move up 5 spots. Net: Moving up 5 spots.
2018: PHX traded for #10, and it cost them #16+2021 FRP from MIA. 10th pick essentially cost a move down of 6 spots and an unprotected FRP.
In that very same draft, #11 (who was SGA) was traded for #12+2 2nd round picks.
2017: POR traded up for the 10th pick. They traded 15+20 for #10. Again 2 FRPs.
This is good stuff. Thanks for doing the work. Let's look at each and see if there are equivalent deals that Dallas can make today.
2022: I'd say Reggie is move valuable than Kemba and Bertans is much worse. It is well established that the going rate to eat $20mm of salary is a late first. So, someone eating Bertans and Dallas getting back two protected firsts is roughly in the neighborhood of this (especially given the strength of this draft). The question as relates to my SA proposal (Bertans/McGee/10 for Air and unprotected 2025) is the value variance between a protected and an unprotected pick. Is unprotected 1.5X a protected? 1.75X? It probably depends on the franchise the pick is coming from. If half a pick is going to get rid of McGee and the Unprotected Atlanta pick is 1.5X, then the proposed deal isn't crazy at all (again, I don't make such a deal unless I have the back half of things lined up already).
2019: This is kind of nuts. Saric didn't start half of his games for Philly the year before the trade. Is he Maxi on the current Mav's roster? So, Maxi plus #10 gets you to #6 and you get the best of the run of big wings instead of the leftovers at #10?
2018: This is easy to replicate. Utah at #16. They also have 28, but rather than take on a second rookie that late in the round, you get one of the three 1sts they have in 2025. The board would howl at the superstar we missed at #10, so pretty quickly we'd need to flip that 2025 pick into something useful. All three of the picks Utah has in 2025 are currently unprotected. They could certainly put some protection on one of those picks before trading it.
2017: #15 and #20 is a bit stronger than Brooklyn's picks at #21/#22, but it is probably the closest comparison in this year's draft. Since Brooklyn has a large TPE and an overabundance of wings, there are ways to add more value from their side of this to our side. We just have to be mindful of their tax situation and estimate what Cam Johnson will cost as we make proposals. They will be repeaters if they are in the LT this year.
To me, the hardest of these to replicate is 2019. I just can't see Orlando taking anything we have to move down to #10 (especially since they already have #11). Same applies to Detroit and Indy sitting either side of Orlando. The other deals have equivalent opportunities in the current draft...many of which we've discussed or got close to in various proposals people have made.
(05-31-2023, 05:56 AM)omahen Wrote: I am pretty sure Mavs and Kyrie already agreed on the deal when trade was done. At least I hope they have.
Other than that, I would have two fears:
- Kyrie willing to take much less to go where he wants to (caused by Mavs lowballing him)
- Houston, if they fail with Harden. Their Green has been talking high praise about Kyrie.
You'll have to take that up with FG. He shot down the idea that Houston would have interest in Kyrie when I brought it up a while back. I agree with you. They want a big name and probably aren't smart enough to care about fit. Impatience does that to teams.