Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[SleepingHero]

I think there is a huge overvaluation of the #10 lottery ticket here.  We know with near certainty that the player taken here won't be a significant playoff contributor for the next couple of years.  We don't know if this player will even be a starter in that period of time.

Speaking to the valuation of the 10th pick, you inspired me to look at the last 8 drafts to accurately gauge the value of #10. We can sorta peg the value* of the 10th pick at around 2-4 FRPs (if unprotected then lower, if protected then the higher amount). 

*Of course variation of the perception of how deep said draft was at the time will affect the valuation. This draft class has been noted as deeper than others recently, so that should be considered when factoring in the valuation of the pick.

2022: Knicks trade the 11th pick to OKC for multiple firsts (2023 1st from DEN, 2023 1st from WAS, 2023 1st from Detroit, all protected). This right here shows that a pick roughly around 10 is worth at least 3 protected (and in this case pretty heavily protected 1sts). This deal was also intertwined with a trade with Charlotte and Detroit, which let the Knicks flip 1 of those picks to clear Kemba's 8 mil of salary. Net: 2 FRPs+8 mil of salary relief.

2019: MIN trades 11+Saric to the Suns for #6. Saric at the time was seen as a solid role player, but nothing incredibly special. It should be noted that this draft was seen as top heavy, and outside of the top 3 it was a bit of a crapshoot. Not a perfect 1:1, but a pick lower than #10+a solid role player on an okay contract was enough to move up 5 spots. Net: Moving up 5 spots.

2018: We all loved this draft, but in it PHX moved up 6 spots. They traded for #10, and it cost them #16+2021 FRP from MIA (that became #18 and Tre Mann). This draft was hailed as one of the best ones since 2003, so a high valuation. 10th pick essentially cost a move down of 6 spots and an unprotected FRP.

In that very same draft, #11 (who was SGA) was traded for #12+2 2nd round picks. 

2017: POR traded up for the 10th pick. They traded 15+20 for #10. Again 2 FRPs.


I can keep going but this is already a wall of text. Mavs should be able to squeeze at the minimum 2 FRPs. If they are using #10 as a chip to bring in a starter, then they should at the minimum get 1 additional FRP.