Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[dirkfansince1998]

First of all, unless you have a DeLorean that can do 88mph, the last 5 seasons matter none.  Let's look at last year, not 5 years ago...

Defense...  Pacers were 23rd in Dfg%/fg% +/- last year.  Turner was -0.8%  His Dfg% was an abysmal 49.7%  Wood, who we said couldn't be on the court because of his defense was 48.5%.

Rebounding...  dude is a terrible rebounder for a big.  Let's look at rebounds and factor in deferred.  This is where true rebounding capability resides.  Adjust Reb% 56.2.  That puts him behind Morris, Luka, Wood, Bullock, Kyrie, Bertans, Frank, DFS, McGee, THJ, Din, Hardy, Green, Holiday, and Maxi.  Basically DEAD LAST if he were a Mav, the worst rebounding team in the league.

Scoring, ya, I already said his scoring is a plus.  efg% of 61.2 is legit.

Point is what does this team need around Luka and Kyrie.  Rebounding and defense.  Myles is under-average to abysmal in both categories.

Jarrett Allen is 2 years younger, same $, and is exceedingly better at both rebounding and defense.  Then, as you mentioned, health.  Turner has averaged missing 32 games the last 3 years.

I don´t think you understant how DFG% works. Turner gave up 49.7% overall. Inside 6ft he gave up 58.5%. That´s not abysmal. It´s pretty good for a big because the expected outcome was 65.1%. -6.6%.
Wood on the other hand did not defend as many attempt close to the rim. Overall he gave up 48.5% compared to the expected outcome fo 48%. +0.5%. Wood actually  had better numbers inside the paint this season. -7.4%. When he actually tried to protect the rim (much lower volume) his shot defense numbers look pretty good.


But that´s obviously not the whole story. Tracking data isn´t telling us anything about the circumstances of shot attempts. I like to use it for bigs because shot defense inside the paint strongly correlates with the eyetest when it comes to rim protection. In the last few seasons the ranking was dominated by Gobert and Lopez.

To get an idea about overall defensive impact I would take +/- numbers over anything else. Ideally in a big sample size. Turner has been a consistent positive for his team over multiple seasons. With different lineups next to him. Different coaches. Different schemes. As a single big. Next to Sabonis. On a playoff team. On a tanking team.
Going along with various regression of +/- data like RAPM or RPM that all rank Turner as one of the best defenders over the last five seasons.

This season clearly hasn´t been as good as previous ones but considering the circumstances (teammates, bigger role on offense, tanking) I am not willing to ignore his performance in the previous seasons.


My personal opinion when it comes to rebounding is similar to my take on defense. I couldn´t care less about individual rebounding numbers. Over the years we have seen too many bigs that averaged 10-15 rebounds per game that had a negative impact on team rebounding percentage.
Metrics like REB% or adjust REB chance tell us that Steven Adams or Brook Lopez are terrible rebounders. But if we look at on/off data their teams are performing a lot better on the boards with both on the floor. How is that possible? In my opinion the primary role of the big is to boxout. Requires discipline and unselfishness. Priority for a big like Lopez or Adams isn´t the ball. It´s the opposing big.

I wouldn´t put Turner in the same category as Adams or Lopez but I also don´t think that he is as bad as the counting stats suggest. Based on the eyetest he tends to be over aggressive on shot contest and can take himself out of position for the rebound but overall he isn´t hurting his team on the defensive board. Offensive rebounding is more about the scheme. As a stretch big he isn´t getting as many opportunities to crash the board.

Edit. Sorry for derailing. Somehow turned into a monologue about my basketball/stats/advanced metrics philosophy.