Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[SleepingHero]

I spent a little time yesterday trying to consume news/rumors from the perspective of other markets.  I’m starting to piece together how some of the more prevalent things we’ve heard are seen elsewhere and see if it has any impact on what I’ve considered my core position:
Ayton:  I’m starting to think the Ayton thing is pretty likely.  I also think the Eric Pincus proposal is going to be close.  In some of the writing and podcasts I consumed, folks in Phoenix think there will be a market for Ayton.  One source thought his market was a starter, a young player and a pick.  From a salary matching standpoint, it pretty much has to be THJ/McGee and Green in a two team deal.  Pincus also added #10.  We are seeing some negotiations already in the media, so this isn’t done.  It doesn’t have to be number 10 and the salary matching changes if the deal expands to involve a Dallas salary dump to a third team that wants #10.  One thing to bear in mind, whatever we send, there has to be a path for Phoenix to use it to get a center.
#10:  We’ve heard lots of speculation about moving down, possibly as a means of moving some salary.  When you plan out the salary of what it would take to add two starters, dead money is just a killer.  A S/W of Bertans makes sense if Kyrie is staying as you have $180mm to work with.  But, if he leaves and you want to S&T someone in, the budget drops by $10mm and $4.4mm for Bertans is a ton.  Similarly, the $5mm price tag for #10 is higher than the value you are going to get from him for the next season or two.  So, I can easily see Dallas using the pick to move down for multiple picks.  One might go to Phoenix in the Ayton deal and one might go to pay for a team eating salary for us.  
We talk a lot about Utah with 16 and 28 or Brooklyn with 21 and 22 as logical trade down positions.  Indy with 26, 29 and 32 is alow logical.  But, the ability to eat salary is just as important as having multiple picks.  The only places that can eat sizable salary at the draft with no returning salary are SA (cap space) and Brooklyn (TPE).  Note Brooklyn is on both lists and has a center (Claxton is a CAA client as are Booker and CP).  BTW, if Claxton is in such a deal for #10, I might propose Green stays with Dallas and Brooklyn takes Reggie and McGee creating a $15.4mm TPE for Dallas.
Kyrie: I think he’s going to LA.  I think it is a double S&T and Dallas will get D-Lo and Rui and 2029.  If you think about it, D-Lo is Dinwiddie, Rui is DFS and 29 pick for 29 pick.  So, we got got a look at Luka with a second star who creates and we got younger at the positions we sent out.  Mentally, I’ve tried to put Vanderbilt in this slot for salary and defensive purposes.  But, if you put Ayton on the team, the PF can’t be Vanderbilt.  The PF has to be someone who can shoot from outside.  Rui actually has better net numbers as a SF, so closing lineups with Ayton, Maxi and Rui can work.  Is it ideal?  No, but neither was Dinwiddie and DFS.  Kyrie fits the Lebron timetable better and D-Lo and Rui fit the Luka timetable better (and you get two players for the price of Kyrie).
So, putting it all together, at the draft the following happens: 
Brooklyn gets 10/Reggie/McGee for Claxton/22
Phoenix gets THJ/Claxton for Ayton
Dallas gets Ayton/22 (for THJ, Reggie, McGee and #10).
Note, it doesn’t look like a trade down for a dump.  It is a trade down for talent.
You can stay put at this point if Kyrie stays, but I said I think Kyrie is leaving for D-Lo and Rui and 2029.  When you do that, you have:
Ayton.         Powell
Rui.             Maxi
Trade/Sign.  Green
Luka.           Hardy
D-Lo
You also have #22 and minimums to finish things out.  You also have a Wood S&T possibility or a TPE trade possibility and you now have 2027 and LA’s 2029 (and #22) to put in a trade.  Which MLE you get will be dependent on that trade and what you paid Rui Powell and D-Lo.  You have to pay attention to where you are regarding the first apron as you can’t go over with the S&T’s from LA..

I love the weekly inner thoughts omnibus of Dan.

I'm very curious why you're confident Kyrie is leaving at this point? Don't get me wrong, there is a lot of smoke pointing to Kyrie to LA (especially given the report that the Mavs might not offer the max). But what in this week tipped you over the edge?

Further, I don't think D-Lo is Dinwiddie. He's okay, but his hot-cold tendencies coupled with the "I'm an all-star" attitude scares the crap out of me. He flashed some incredible defensive potential in Minnesota 2 years ago, but that's all but vanished. I wouldn't be comfortable at all signing D-Lo for anything more than what THJ got, and even that that's an overpay. Problem is he wants 100mm+. He would have to agree to come to Dallas, at which point why are we accepting a bad salary deal?

Rui is way more interesting, but my excitement wanes if he's going to come on a deal bigger than 4/55. He's an okay player, but again he's flawed. 

You also have to demand Vanderbilt in such a trade. His archetype of defense and hustle does fit around the most important player on the roster, regardless of whether or not he fits next to a center we're trying to wrangle. 

Rui+D-Lo+Vanderbilt+29+#17 makes sense for the Mavs on paper. But I have a feeling seeing Kyrie jump ship in less than 4 months here can't bode well to keeping Luka happy. Who knows?

Re: Ayton , you know how much I love the big man, but I fail to see any other realistic suitor offering a package that nets the Suns all those things described above. Ayton's salary should be a massive negative. The Mavs had to pay to get off of a similar salary in Porzingis, I don't see why the Suns wouldn't have to do the same. Thus, I have to draw the line at Green OR #10. Suns can choose. 

A revised deal to that Pincus one could be one you alluded to in your #10n breakdown; THJ+Bertans+#10, but 10+Bertans is routed to IND, Turner goes to the Suns, Mavs get Ayton and IND last 2 picks in the first round. Now the Mavs have 3 firsts to fill out the roster should the Kyrie thing happen (as the Lakers pick as a formality). 

IND now has 7+10, and a massive salary relief. Mavs get Ayton and 2 shots to fill out the rotation. The deal feels a little light in terms for IND, so the Mavs might have to eat the last year of Hields contract (does the Buddy Love train return???)

Following with the rest of your offseason plans, New Look Mavs in my mind are:
Luka/Green/Hardy
D-Lo/Hield
Rui/Reggie
Vando/Maxi
Ayton/Powell

To me that is a much more balanced team head to toe.