05-10-2023, 07:36 AM
(05-09-2023, 04:38 AM)omahen Wrote: We are just circling around same thingI admit, he is not worth the max. Never said otherwise. But, if he would be, Mavs would have no way to get him, as their assets are really limited.
They say the most important 'ability' is availability. We can all name centers we'd rather have, but how exactly are we going to get them? The more Ayton struggles and pouts, the more available he might be. I would support an Ayton acquisition depending on the price.
I don't worry so much about the 'got played off the court' in the playoffs stuff. Some used to say that about the starting PG in NY. There are only six guys in the NBA who average 18/10 and Ayton is one of them (and we desperately need the 10 rebounds). I agree the matching timeline with Luka is attractive to me.
The salary is an issue...no doubt. But, that is part of why he might be affordable from a trade perspective. If you look at center salaries after Embiid, Jokic, Gobert, AD, KAT and Bam, it is Ayton, Turner, Capela and J. Allen. I think Ayton fits well in that group of four from a talent perspective. Ayton is overpaid by what? Capela, Turner and Allen all make $20mm next season compared to Ayton's $32mm. Ayton is arguably best of that group of four, so at the most he's $12mm overpaid. Maybe more like $8mm?
The new CBA provides a budget of $180mm. If Kyrie gets every penny he can and we acquire Ayton, there is still $50mm left to build out the rest of the team. The bottom five should be $10mm of that leaving $40mm for spots 4-9 (I'm counting 14 roster spots). That's ~$7mm each. Yeah, THJ and Maxi make more than that. But, Green and Hardy make way less. Is the issue Ayton's money or overpaying mid-tier guys.
Every team with two stars is going to have to decide this issue. Get another $30mm guy? Or spread that money around to better mid-tier guys. Going back to the Mav's, let's say we get Capela or Allen or Turner instead. We get to spread $12mm out over the rest of the roster. So, now our 4-9 guys can average $9mm vs $7mm. Did that really help? Obviously yes if the outgoing assets needed to get those $20mm centers is the same as it is with Ayton. That may be true of Capela, but I think the other two would cost more in trade than Ayton right now. Which brings us back to this being price dependent.
I think the adjustment that is coming as a result of the new CBA is going to be to hold down salaries on 4th/5th starters and top tier bench guys. Hardaway wouldn't get $20mm in this environment. The Full MLE won't go to 8th men. Teams will need to hold onto their cost controlled guys and extend them while they can at an appropriate amount. Some negotiations for guys in the $10mm-$20mm range are going to be tough because old comps may not be appropriate. True stars will soon be making $50mm and $60mm isn't that far down the road. So, the squeeze is going to come from somewhere. My theory is teams will still pay for stars, so they won't be able to overpay mid-tier guys also.