Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[omahen]

Which of these (if any) change your level of interest (and if so, which)?

A) Bertans + McGee + 2023 1st     for DG
B) Bertans + McGee + 2023 1st     for DG + 2023 1st
C) Bertans + McGee + 2023 1st     for DG + 2023 1st + 2027 2nd

I think the Green question has several layers and can't be looked from Mavs perspective only. 

I think Green wants another big contract and from his perspective it is certainly more likely to get one this summer than the summer after. So, he will be looking for a team that is willing to sign him long term, either as a FA or as a trade with his PO taken and then extended. My assumption is that this summer there will be market for him on a longer deal, bigger possibility for him than waiting one more year. Of course, if I am wrong and there is no one willing to offer him a multiyear deal now, that changes a lot. But for the moment, I will stay with the assumption that there is a market for him at 20+ per year on a multiyear deal. We also need to assume GSW and Green are done in a sense that GSW is not that team willing to give him one more contract. Because if they are, he will stay there. But if they are not, I think it is very likely he gets moved this summer and that GSW and his representation will work together to find a best option for everyone involved. 

From Mavs perspective, they desperately need a defensive general and obviously the PF position is their biggest need. Going forward with Luka and Irving they need to have plus defenders on the remaining spots and none of the current players is really that. Bullock has been mostly bad, Maxi can offer some excellent games but is injured a lot and rehabing most of the remaining time. The center spot is below average. While Green is not a shooter, he is excellent as a short roll. And this is a scheme they mostly play recently when Luka is doubled. They just don't have a capable guy running to a short roll spot and then either finish or pass. Wood is best, but we all know he has his problems on the defensive side. So, I can see a world where green works on offense despite his limited shooting. We can probably discuss endlessly if that is true or not, but for this purpose I would just assume Mavs see how it would work and want him and are prepared to give him what he wants (long term deal). 

This leaves the GSW compensation part. As I already wrote a couple of days ago, I think a fair compensation is a lottery protected pick. Mavs don't really have that, they have either an unprotected pick in 2024 or (assuming) a number 10 pick in this year draft. This would mean a protected pick (or non lottery pick in 2023) would need to come back from GSW. The problem I see in all your proposals are the bad contracts of Bertans and McGee. GSW is hugely in tax and I don't think they would have any interest in replacing Green with 20+ mil of dead value, which means a huge tax bill for them. That alone probably doesn't cover the difference between the number 10 and number 18 pick. They are still wanting to compete now. I believe they would want either a big tax reduction (third team needs to be involved) or a usefull player. I would be more convinced if THJ was there instead of Bertans, assuming GSW sees any use for him. He would be a much more expensive replacement for DiVincenzo. 

Assuming Mavs see Green as feasible long term option, the price is more likely the unprotected pick or the number 10 pick in 2023 without getting anything back. Either with GSW taking McGee and Bertans or (more likely) involving a third team with part of draft compensation going there. Personally, I think Green can help on a short term, but has huge risks on the long term. However, Mavs seem to like to gamble so I could easily see them as the ones taking that risk. With Kyrie in, Mavs don't really have other option but go all in. 

Irving and Green are influential behind the curtains players, something Luka is not since he was not growing up in US. Stars like to play with other stars and Green is still considered as a star (despite my opinion, that he has been on a decline for some time now). From this perspective, I could see the behind the curtains actions pulling the strings to join Irving, Green and Luka. There is obviously also a mutual respect between Luka and Green. So, I think the Green to Dallas is something to look at closely and I am affraid the compensation would be even higher than option A you presented. 

Coming to my opinion. Mavs did decide for Irving. Something, I would probably not do as I have my doubts about him. Both in terms of long term risks due to his previous actions as well as his on court fit with Luka. But, there is a behind the curtains factor he brings along which is impossible for us to assess. Lets not forget, he was the one who convinced Durant to go to BKN. It is totally possible that this influence is greatly reduced due to his BKN episode and Mavs failed in that assessment. That would be just the typical Mavs. But I would like to stay positive. Because if they misjudged Irving, the team is done and Luka will go to another team, imho. In any case, the only option looking forward is with Irving. Green is bringing similar risks as Irving regarding his long term impact. But if you go all in, you go all in, no middle ground here. You can't have Irving and build slowly around him, even if everything else goes well, he is not young anymore. From this perspective I could take a gamble with Green and hope for a title in two years. Basically, one pick for Green, the other pick for another quality starter that is above average defender while hopefully using only Bullock, Maxi, Bertans, THJ and McGee contracts (in any combination) as salary compensation for the two players. Bring in a quality addition with rMLE and a couple of decent vet min guys and hope for the best. I think trading both picks for two quality starters is the only option Mavs have at this point.