02-12-2023, 10:01 AM
(02-12-2023, 12:18 AM)F Gump Wrote: ADJUSTMENTS AND HARD CAP ISSUES
1 I think it's better to pencil them in for 14.5 player salaries, not 15. They have to have 14. As we saw this season, the last slot was a series of non-guaranteed longshots, a couple 10-days, and will end with Ross getting paid for about 1/3 of a season. It probably adds up to more than 0.5, I suspect.
2 Of course, it's quite unlikely that they use the entire back side of the roster on rookies. They have no pick. And they will want to have as much playable veteran talent as possible, chasing a title. So let's say that 4.5 of those last 5.5 slots, in our 'cheapest way possible,' will go to veterans who will play on a minimum salary deal. Those veterans cost just a hair under $2M each. Now the cap total is at about 165.7M. (Or, with a DB s-w, it's about 155.1M.)
4 However, the apron is now in play, and some adjustments start getting in the way. For the HARD CAP limit, all incentives count as if they are met, but so far there are none. And the rookie FA counts at 2M unless he is their draft pick. Assuming Kyrie doesn't get incentives, the APRON total is now 166.6M. (Or, with a DB s-w, it's about 156M.)
If you pencil in a DB s-w, 9.5M for Powell, 7M for a TxMLE guy, and 4.5 veteran minimums, you're at about 169M, so in theory you might can cobble together an under-apron team if you had to. But if you either keep Wood, or s-n-t him and get a salary back, you've flown past the line.
Thanks. This level of detail is instructive. I maintain the $1.1mm holds on my spreadsheet up to 12 slots for cap and tax purposes. I may need to consider adding a column that carries vet mins out to 14.5 slots to track the hard cap as well.
The conclusions of our posts are similar.
It would take something pretty seismic to bring in a S&T guy like Grant. If we are planning a roster that includes keeping Irving, might as well take that off the table. When shopping free agents, the TP-MLE at $7mm is probably the number. I don't think you are going to find a starter for that money.
If we are going to add another starter, it will need to be a trade for a non-FA and then back-fill the position with the exception. I tend to agree that only one of Powell/Wood is still here next season. So, as you mention, the other could be signed and traded. If the trade target is a big, then that doesn't have to be back-filled as you'd still have one of DP/CW still here along with McGee and Maxi. Bertans is also superfluous and wouldn't need to be back-filled. If you trade THJ and the returning player is not a wing, you are probably a wing short and would need to use the exception to get some help there.
If I were betting right now, my guess would be a Wood S&T (probably not guaranteed for all 3 years) plus Bertans (essentially expiring this summer) and picks for someone 25% either side of $30mm. Or, just Bertans and someone 25% either side of $17mm. Some of the names in that ballpark are Ayton, Turner, Draymond, Siakam, KAT, Capela, Nurkic, Robinson and Valanciunas. Most of those guys play for contenders, so it is hard to make sense of a pick based compensation. It doesn't change things much if THJ is substituted as outgoing other than taking the outgoing S&T off the table if he replaces Wood. Having Wood in the outgoing, as you pointed out yesterday, will eliminate the higher dollar teams that are already over the hard cap.
Bigs: New Big, Powell, McGee
Wings: Green, Maxi, THJ, Reggie
BH's: Luka, Irving, Hardy
Or, move Maxi to the Big category and THJ outgoing for a Bigger Wing.