Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[F Gump]

Arrrgh.  Forgot about potential of Phoenix having a hard cap issue with a Kyrie S&T.

Some numbers related to tax and hard cap and Mavs situation this summer ...

1 With 134M cap, tax should land at about 162.76M and apron at about 169.5M.
2 Where are the Mavs? They are far over the cap. Technically they won't pay tax if they don't want to. Their starting point with 9 existing salaries (that assumes they give Kyrie the max, and the others all walk) would be $155.6M, and they can fill the remaining 6 slots with rookie free agents who make $1.1M each. The result is a total just under the tax line 162.2M. That's a very unlikely choice, however.

WOOD/POWELL - In these scenarios, both of these players are let go, and have to be replaced.

THE BERTANS FACTOR - If they opted to stretch-waive Bertans, it does add a bit of room, but maybe not enough to change the direction. The money due gets spread over multiple years, but they would have to add another FA contract into the mix. I'll assume he's a veteran, where the minimums cost 2M each, and at the bottom line this s-w would ADD another $10.6M to spending possibilities, and in the scenario above they would be at 151.6M using a DB s-w.

ADJUSTMENTS AND HARD CAP ISSUES
1 I think it's better to pencil them in for 14.5 player salaries, not 15. They have to have 14. As we saw this season, the last slot was a series of non-guaranteed longshots, a couple 10-days, and will end with Ross getting paid for about 1/3 of a season. It probably adds up to more than 0.5, I suspect.
2 Of course, it's quite unlikely that they use the entire back side of the roster on rookies. They have no pick. And they will want to have as much playable veteran talent as possible, chasing a title. So let's say that 4.5 of those last 5.5 slots, in our 'cheapest way possible,' will go to veterans who will play on a minimum salary deal. Those veterans cost just a hair under $2M each. Now the cap total is at about 165.7M.  (Or, with a DB s-w, it's about 155.1M.)
4 However, the apron is now in play, and some adjustments start getting in the way. For the HARD CAP limit, all incentives count as if they are met, but so far there are none. And the rookie FA counts at 2M unless he is their draft pick. Assuming Kyrie doesn't get incentives, the APRON total is now 166.6M. (Or, with a DB s-w, it's about 156M.)


That 155M roster looks like this, and allows about 7M to be spent and not pay tax, or about 13M to be spent and stay under the hard cap.
Bigs - McGee, Kleber
Wings - Green, Bullock, THJ
Playmakers - Luka, Kyrie, Hardy
Unsigned so far -  6.5 players on minimum salary


THE ALTERNATIVE TO ALL THIS RESTRICTIVE ROSTER-BUILDING
Given all of the above, assuming they re-sign Kyrie, I think they go past the hard cap. The DB s-w seems more likely than not, although it sure would be better if they could find a way to move him off their cap instead.

I can see them wanting to keep Powell, and him wanting to stay, but hopefully with a less-than-MLE salary. I'm about 50-50 on what will happen with Wood, and imo it hinges on how useful (or not) he is when it's playoff time. Right now it doesn't feel they would want to give him what he wants, and a good showing when it counts could change that. He does have a minor potential to bring DAL something in a sign-and-trade, if he gets interest at a more-than-MLE level from a team without cap space.

If you pencil in a DB s-w, 9.5M for Powell, 7M for a TxMLE guy, and 4.5 veteran minimums, you're at about 169M, so in theory you might can cobble together an under-apron team if you had to. But if you either keep Wood, or s-n-t him and get a salary back, you've flown past the line.