02-11-2023, 07:00 PM
So the projected numbers are
134 (cap)
162 (tax)
168 (apron)
I don´t see any scenario, where they S/W Bertans, since they´d have to guarantee his full salary to do so, and carry $6.5M annually for the next five years, when the other option is 17/5/0/0/0. Better chance they waive McGee´s guaranteed $11.7M over five years.
Looking at the overall free agent market at PF/C, I have come to the conclusion that it will be mutually benefitial for the Mavs and the players to retain Wood/Powell using bird rights. Won´t be an issue with Powell. Haha about Wood.
I´m still not comfortable with the frontcourt depth. I want a minimum veteran plus a smaller trade. I´m still a healthy Zach Collins believer. So let´s say Javale McGee + 2nd round pick + cash is an interesting option. I´m confident two 2nd rounders would get it done (cash = pay to buy additional 2nd rounder option). Kevin Love or Dario Saric would be welcome veteran minimum options.
So let´s say Kyrie gets his $46.9M. We come to an agreement with Wood on a 30/2 extension and Powell accepts a 24/3 extension. You can always trade Wood mid-season, but don´t lose the asset.
I also believe AJ Lawson has shown enough that they´ll convert his two-way deal early to a three year minimum contract.
That puts us around 178-180M already (with THJ+Bertans on the roster), in which I consider one of the cheaper off-season versions. Guess a lot will depend on what cash Cuban is willing to splash. Therefore...
Previously I did not consider the possibility that Myles Turner or John Collins would be worth two lightly protected 1st round picks, but if you re-route negative assets like THJ/Bertans to save some salary that becomes an actual option. Since the Hawks have no interest or ability to add salary, let´s go the Myles Turner direction. Maybe we re-route Z. Collins to Indiana alongside Bertans/THJ for Turner/Nwora.
So let´s say the big move is
Turner/Nwora to Dallas
THJ/Bertans/Z. Collins/2025 + 2027 1st round picks to Indiana
McGee/2025 2nd round pick + cash to Spurs
Remaining three roster spots are rookies/veteran minimum free agents.
I´d try to find a cheap center. There will be plenty of veteran minimum options: Noel/Len/Drummond/Biyombo/R. Lopez/Dieng. Ideally you get one of the younger veterans (Bryant/Bitadze/Azubuike/Bradley/Wagner/Metu/Hayes/Reid), but that will be a hard sell with that fairly loaded frontcourt rotation and some (Hayes/Reid/Bryant) will get offers exceeding the minimum.
You must have a lot of confidence in your young client as an agent, if you want to push him toward the Mavs for minutes. On paper your client can push Powell for the full back-up role behind Turner. I´ll be cautiously optimistic and pick Azubuike here. He has no shot in Utah with Kessler as he´s a very similar player, too. To the Mavs he brings the strength/size that nobody else in our "finesse" frontcourt has to offer, so he could carve out a role. He´s certainly not above the minimum yet. Furthermore he has shown glimpses before getting injured. PLEASE PLEASE let´s not re-visit McGee vs. young veteran C this off-season, if it is there financially. No stuff like Len over Azubuike.
The free agent market for rotational guards is actually pretty good, but with our limited financial options that will prove difficult and you also don´t want to mess with Hardy´s minutes and more importantly his place in the food chain. That kind of makes me hesitant with regards to DSJ, although I think he´s the most gettable young veteran minimum back-up option.
I wonder what kind of offers RJ Hampton will get. You´d probably have to guarantee him the back-up PG role with 1000 regular season minutes minimum (60 games x 18 MPG). What works in our favour is that he´ll be no priority for FOs of young/rebuilding teams. They´ll have to justify their own draft picks by supplying them minutes. So like with Azubuike, I choose optimism. Finally Dragic on the vet minimum. He´ll be 37. He can be a leader for the team, but without any guaranteed minutes.
Irving 46.9
Luka 40.0
Turner 20.9
Wood 14.4
Kleber 11.0
Bullock 10.4
Powell 7.0
Green 4.7
Nwora 3.0
Dragic 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Saric 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Lawson 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Azubuike 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Hampton 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Hardy 1.7
============
169.5
Don´s see how you can get far lower salary-wise without killing the competitiveness of the team.
If you get the sense, the rotation is not veterany enough for the play-offs and some of the younger players don´t develop as you expect, you can always package Wood with a combination of Hampton/Azubuike/Lawson. #young player trade value.
Doncic/Hampton/Dragic
Irving/Hardy/Lawson
Green/Bullock/Nwora
Wood/Kleber/Saric
Turner/Powell/Azubuike
My main conclusion is that Wood/Powell extensions seem the most likely way forward, if Irving stays.
If Irving wants out, it becomes a totally different mess. My short version is trade for Lillard/Grant (Irving to LA/Wood to Portland).
Sorry for the long-ass post.
134 (cap)
162 (tax)
168 (apron)
I don´t see any scenario, where they S/W Bertans, since they´d have to guarantee his full salary to do so, and carry $6.5M annually for the next five years, when the other option is 17/5/0/0/0. Better chance they waive McGee´s guaranteed $11.7M over five years.
Looking at the overall free agent market at PF/C, I have come to the conclusion that it will be mutually benefitial for the Mavs and the players to retain Wood/Powell using bird rights. Won´t be an issue with Powell. Haha about Wood.
I´m still not comfortable with the frontcourt depth. I want a minimum veteran plus a smaller trade. I´m still a healthy Zach Collins believer. So let´s say Javale McGee + 2nd round pick + cash is an interesting option. I´m confident two 2nd rounders would get it done (cash = pay to buy additional 2nd rounder option). Kevin Love or Dario Saric would be welcome veteran minimum options.
So let´s say Kyrie gets his $46.9M. We come to an agreement with Wood on a 30/2 extension and Powell accepts a 24/3 extension. You can always trade Wood mid-season, but don´t lose the asset.
I also believe AJ Lawson has shown enough that they´ll convert his two-way deal early to a three year minimum contract.
That puts us around 178-180M already (with THJ+Bertans on the roster), in which I consider one of the cheaper off-season versions. Guess a lot will depend on what cash Cuban is willing to splash. Therefore...
Previously I did not consider the possibility that Myles Turner or John Collins would be worth two lightly protected 1st round picks, but if you re-route negative assets like THJ/Bertans to save some salary that becomes an actual option. Since the Hawks have no interest or ability to add salary, let´s go the Myles Turner direction. Maybe we re-route Z. Collins to Indiana alongside Bertans/THJ for Turner/Nwora.
So let´s say the big move is
Turner/Nwora to Dallas
THJ/Bertans/Z. Collins/2025 + 2027 1st round picks to Indiana
McGee/2025 2nd round pick + cash to Spurs
Remaining three roster spots are rookies/veteran minimum free agents.
I´d try to find a cheap center. There will be plenty of veteran minimum options: Noel/Len/Drummond/Biyombo/R. Lopez/Dieng. Ideally you get one of the younger veterans (Bryant/Bitadze/Azubuike/Bradley/Wagner/Metu/Hayes/Reid), but that will be a hard sell with that fairly loaded frontcourt rotation and some (Hayes/Reid/Bryant) will get offers exceeding the minimum.
You must have a lot of confidence in your young client as an agent, if you want to push him toward the Mavs for minutes. On paper your client can push Powell for the full back-up role behind Turner. I´ll be cautiously optimistic and pick Azubuike here. He has no shot in Utah with Kessler as he´s a very similar player, too. To the Mavs he brings the strength/size that nobody else in our "finesse" frontcourt has to offer, so he could carve out a role. He´s certainly not above the minimum yet. Furthermore he has shown glimpses before getting injured. PLEASE PLEASE let´s not re-visit McGee vs. young veteran C this off-season, if it is there financially. No stuff like Len over Azubuike.
The free agent market for rotational guards is actually pretty good, but with our limited financial options that will prove difficult and you also don´t want to mess with Hardy´s minutes and more importantly his place in the food chain. That kind of makes me hesitant with regards to DSJ, although I think he´s the most gettable young veteran minimum back-up option.
I wonder what kind of offers RJ Hampton will get. You´d probably have to guarantee him the back-up PG role with 1000 regular season minutes minimum (60 games x 18 MPG). What works in our favour is that he´ll be no priority for FOs of young/rebuilding teams. They´ll have to justify their own draft picks by supplying them minutes. So like with Azubuike, I choose optimism. Finally Dragic on the vet minimum. He´ll be 37. He can be a leader for the team, but without any guaranteed minutes.
Irving 46.9
Luka 40.0
Turner 20.9
Wood 14.4
Kleber 11.0
Bullock 10.4
Powell 7.0
Green 4.7
Nwora 3.0
Dragic 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Saric 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Lawson 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Azubuike 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Hampton 1.9 (vet min capslot)
Hardy 1.7
============
169.5
Don´s see how you can get far lower salary-wise without killing the competitiveness of the team.
If you get the sense, the rotation is not veterany enough for the play-offs and some of the younger players don´t develop as you expect, you can always package Wood with a combination of Hampton/Azubuike/Lawson. #young player trade value.
Doncic/Hampton/Dragic
Irving/Hardy/Lawson
Green/Bullock/Nwora
Wood/Kleber/Saric
Turner/Powell/Azubuike
My main conclusion is that Wood/Powell extensions seem the most likely way forward, if Irving stays.
If Irving wants out, it becomes a totally different mess. My short version is trade for Lillard/Grant (Irving to LA/Wood to Portland).
Sorry for the long-ass post.