Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[DanSchwartzgan]

Won’t we be in the tax next year if we re-sign Kyrie to a max deal? If we’re in the tax we cannot accept a player in a sign and trade.

Loki is right...the apron is the limiting factor in some versions of what might happen.  It is less limiting in others.  The areas that matter are the use of exceptions and Sign and Trades.  So, if the plan is to trade for OG, Siakam or Ayton, these are not S&T's and the Apron isn't a factor.  BTW, Bobby K mentioned liking Ayton yesterday and said Windhorst is really pushing the idea the Mav's still want him.  If the target is Grant, that is a S&T and now you have an issue.  I like Grant here, but trading for him means you are hard capped and limited in the exceptions you get.  Grant may also present BYC issues.

I'm not at the point where I'm entertaining versions of the future where Irving doesn't return (those versions would have him leaving via S&T anyway, so cap space isn't an option in my mind).  If you pay Irving his max and only account for players who are under contract, you are at ~$158.5mm for 9 players and 3 holds.  That is about $3.5mm under the tax and about $9.5mm under the Apron.  The taxpayer MLE is $7mm and you don't have Powell or Wood accounted for yet.  Are there ways to improve that?

One is S/W Bertans.  This saves $12.6mm.  I brought this  possibility up MONTHS ago.

I also wonder if Kyrie might sign for a discount.  Maybe Luka's money rather than the 35% max he's entitled to.  Kind of a Harden deal.  Maybe you give him whatever he wants in terms of other aspects of the deal like a PO of his choosing.  That gets you almost $7mm more.  

Putting this all together, I see three paths...(assumes Kyrie stays)

1.  Go for the Grant S&T (or any other S&T).  I started to write this up in more detail, but it is a lot.  It wouldn't be easy to pull this off and keep a center and use the TPMLE.  You probably have to send out THJ and another keeper (like Maxi or Reggie...not S&T Wood or S&T Powell) as salary filler.

2.  Go for a big dollar player who isn't a Free Agent (maybe Siakam or Ayton or fill in your own name).  The Apron isn't an issue here, but you may be limited to the TPMLE even with the Bertans S/W (all calculations from here presume that S/W).  My presumption is you'd deal THJ and would need about $12mm more to get to Siakam or $8mm more to get to Ayton.  If you use THJ plus a S&T like Powell or Wood, you are well into the tax.    It could also be THJ/Maxi/Hardy and picks.  Then, you are under the tax by almost $7mm on Siakam and a little over $12mm if the target is Ayton.  Yes, there is a path to Ayton, staying under the tax and using the Full MLE on a player (but Powell and Wood are gone and were not used in a S&T)  

3.  The numbers get easier if if we target a player who makes very similar to what we are sending out (thinking THJ and OG as the example here along with a Bertans S/W).  This would allow you to use the full MLE and still be about $6mm under the tax since you aren't using the 125% trade leverage.  Maybe you use that $6mm to bring back Powell and one more minimum or use the BAE and one more minimum guy to get to 14.  It doesn't have to be OG, just someone worthy of draft capital who makes similar to whatever non S&T player we send out.

Both #2 and #3 get pretty tight.  It would be REALLY helpful if Kyrie would take a discount on his $46.9mm.  I'd love to hear he's been signed at the opening of free agency and then find out the number is flexible (like Dirk used to do).  Let the team work out whatever trade they want (or even better, do it at the draft).  Let them work out who and how much they spend on an exception and any other returning players and then Kyrie gets the number needed to keep us under the tax or apron depending on which scenario we are doing.

Sorry so long, but I was kind of working this out as I wrote.