Rock and a Hard Place

[ThisIStheYear]

While I agree with the proposition in this thread that the Mavs are ducked unless they pull a rabbit out of the hat — like Hardy turning into an all star — last year, they were basically just a player the equivalent of a Powell who can also rebound from winning the title. They lost to Golden State only because of rebounding. Now, without the near all star quality Brunson sharing the load, they’ve taken a step back. I’d definitely move THJ just to save money. Josh is better. I’d probably move anyone who’s movable outside of Luka, Green, and Hardy, sort of like Don Nelson did when he cleaned out the roster.  But you never know. Luka is so great, maybe he flips the narrative.

[mvossman]

This is the reason I tried to be careful to present options around Wood rather than turn this into anything absolute.  I’m not married to keeping or getting rid of him, but I do feel strongly that you have to make an effort to make the lineups around him work defensively if he’s a starter.  

Maxi made Wood work.  Green makes Wood work.  Lineups with THJ and Wood tend to work.  As you indicate, the four man combo of Wood, Luka, THJ and Green is fantastic.  In fact, add in Kleber to that group of four and any four man combination of those five guys is great.  The five-man combo’s are such small samples, but logic would dictate that Wood, Maxi, THJ, Green and Luka would be great.  

The three man combinations that group any of Powell, DFS, Reggie and SD tend to play well also.  What I think we are missing is someone who can replicate Maxi.  I gravitate to guys like Vanderbilt, PJ Washington and the McDaniels brothers.  Love Toppin and I kind of think Jericho Sims has the mobility to replicate what Maxi does on D.  Not all of these guys are Advanced Stat darlings.  Frankly, neither is Maxi.  His EPM is in the 22nd percentile and his VORP, BPM and WS are all JAG territory.  But, what he does makes lineups work.  His time has to be managed and he isn’t young.  I think the right guy who helps to make ALL of the Wood minutes work defensively (not just the 24 Maxi can play) would be really helpful to proving up the theory that Wood’s D can be good enough to allow access to the Luka/Wood PnR on offense.

I'm not sure Dorian can't play that role to replace Maxi.  The Wood/Dorian/Luka/Green combination has a 98 defensive rating and a net rating over +25 (on a fairly small sample).  I think the Wood/Luka/Green combo (99 defensive rating and net +26) will work well with any two of Maxi/Dorian/Timmy.  The Powell/Bullock/SD combination has worked well from the bench.  This team is not as bad as some folks are making it out to be.  If we can just get healthy and swap SD and Green in the lineups, we would be a dangerous team.  

Honestly I'm not sure we need to go for the big trade with a bunch of firsts.  I think we might be better off with smaller moves targeting youth and two way play.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'm not sure Dorian can't play that role to replace Maxi.  The Wood/Dorian/Luka/Green combination has a 98 defensive rating and a net rating over +25 (on a fairly small sample).  I think the Wood/Luka/Green combo (99 defensive rating and net +26) will work well with any two of Maxi/Dorian/Timmy.  The Powell/Bullock/SD combination has worked well from the bench.  This team is not as bad as some folks are making it out to be.  If we can just get healthy and swap SD and Green in the lineups, we would be a dangerous team.  

Honestly I'm not sure we need to go for the big trade with a bunch of firsts.  I think we might be better off with smaller moves targeting youth and two way play.

I think Wood/Dorian/Luka/Green needs THJ’s spacing.  Likewise, I’m not sure it is ‘any two’ of Maxi/Dorian/Timmy who will make Wood/Luka Green work.  It is one of DFS/Maxi plus a shooter.  At least, that is my read of the numbers and observation from watching games.  I’ve said this before, but I’d probably make Maxi and DFS situational starters based on the matchup.

To your other point about being better than given credit for, there was a podcast that Karalla and Skin did a while back where they were talking about the defense in the early part of the season and how dominant we were.  So dominant, that we got big leads on good teams and got bored.  Since then it has been one injury issue after another.  The bad news is we’ve never come close to trying this theory out.  The good news is injuries have forced some of these guys…especially Wood and Josh…to grow their games from where they were to start the season. 

If you are right about the team being better than given credit for, then I probably disagree about making a trade.  Maybe we don’t need that star that requires 3 firsts, but if we are close and can add the right guy for two picks and Bertans, I’d want to do it.  I still like adding a 4/3 or 3/4 so that we aren’t so dependent on Maxi.  It isn’t the same list as I provided earlier.  But, it doesn’t necessarily have to be a top 25 guy either.

[chaparral]

 I gravitate to guys like Vanderbilt, PJ Washington and the McDaniel's brothers.  Love Toppin and I kind of think Jericho Sims has the mobility to replicate what Maxi does on D.  

I really am enjoying reading all the posts to this thread you started.  Great read, thanks...

The McDaniel brothers are both Duffy clients, with Jalen for CHA being a FA this summer.  Any chance the agent helps him become a Mavs by this TDL or in the summer as a FA?  And what kind of money (ballpark) could he command this summer?

Another young Duffy client I like who is a RFA this summer is Jaxson Hayes.

[mvossman]

I think Wood/Dorian/Luka/Green needs THJ’s spacing.  Likewise, I’m not sure it is ‘any two’ of Maxi/Dorian/Timmy who will make Wood/Luka Green work.  It is one of DFS/Maxi plus a shooter.  At least, that is my read of the numbers and observation from watching games.  I’ve said this before, but I’d probably make Maxi and DFS situational starters based on the matchup.

To your other point about being better than given credit for, there was a podcast that Karalla and Skin did a while back where they were talking about the defense in the early part of the season and how dominant we were.  So dominant, that we got big leads on good teams and got bored.  Since then it has been one injury issue after another.  The bad news is we’ve never come close to trying this theory out.  The good news is injuries have forced some of these guys…especially Wood and Josh…to grow their games from where they were to start the season. 

If you are right about the team being better than given credit for, then I probably disagree about making a trade.  Maybe we don’t need that star that requires 3 firsts, but if we are close and can add the right guy for two picks and Bertans, I’d want to do it.  I still like adding a 4/3 or 3/4 so that we aren’t so dependent on Maxi.  It isn’t the same list as I provided earlier.  But, it doesn’t necessarily have to be a top 25 guy either.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that Timmy's shooting is necessary for a Wood/Dorian/Luka/Green lineup to work, but I could see the argument that his offensive impact more than makes up for the hit to defense now that he is playing so much better on that side of the ball.  I would not have guessed a month ago that we would both be arguing for Timmy to be in the starting lineup.  

I think you misunderstand my position regarding trades.  I'm not arguing against making a trade.  I'm arguing that I don't want to pay the kings ransom it would take to land somebody like Siakam (4 firsts, swaps and Green or Hardy or both).  I would prefer to send out a pick with one of our roughly neutral contracts to upgrade that player to somebody younger or two-way or both.  I'm less interested in sending out multiple picks with Bertans because at least one of those will be the cost of dumping that contract and I don't want to burn our limited assets to dump contracts.  I would rather move Bertans in a year and a half or two when he is effectively an expiring contract.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I really am enjoying reading all the posts to this thread you started.  Great read, thanks...

The McDaniel brothers are both Duffy clients, with Jalen for CHA being a FA this summer.  Any chance the agent helps him become a Mavs by this TDL or in the summer as a FA?  

The Charlotte brother is the lesser of the two (both are cousins of Juwan Howard).  It is interesting how pedigree figures into this.  He's a late second guy and P J Washington is a late Lottery guy.  Are they really that different?  I bet there will be a sizable difference in what they make this summer.

I don't know the answer to your question.  He probably gets held back some given how bad his team is as teams have to project who is is on their team.  The only number that matters is the TP MLE.  Anything over that and Dallas can't pay.

---

I would not have guessed a month ago that we would both be arguing for Timmy to be in the starting lineup.  

I would prefer to send out a pick with one of our roughly neutral contracts to upgrade that player to somebody younger or two-way or both.   

I was scouring lists like EPM and LEBRON looking for ideas.  Hardaway has the 38th highest LEBRON WAR in the league.  And, that's with him playing very poor offense when he was coming off the bench.  I don't believe the number (and EPM doesn't either).  But, he has been playing credible D and he does open up space for Luka.  I wouldn't give him up for nothing.

[Mavs2021]

Any guess which old-ass player we are going to sign with the MLE this summer?

Ross?
Crowder?
D. Green?
R. Gay?
Gallinari?

[mvossman]

Any guess which old-ass player we are going to sign with the MLE this summer?

Ross?
Crowder?
D. Green?
R. Gay?
Gallinari?

The most likely answer is nobody.  They will probably be trying to avoid the tax and there is a good chance they will be just under the tax before using any exceptions.

[Smitty]

I gravitate to guys like Vanderbilt, PJ Washington and the McDaniels brothers. 

PJ has been the one I've been screaming about on here. He would solve a lot of the lineup issues IMO. Having a younger/better Maxi is what the team needs, with their current roster construction. Having two of them (when/if Maxi is healthy) will help much more in the playoffs.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The McDaniel brothers are both Duffy clients, with Jalen for CHA being a FA this summer.  Any chance the agent helps him become a Mavs by this TDL or in the summer as a FA?  And what kind of money (ballpark) could he command this summer?
 

Some more perspective on Jalen.  They were talking about Cleveland's need for a wing on The NBA Podcast today.  They said...Yeah, they could try to address it now, but they have a path to a little over MLE this summer if they do this and that.  They then went through the list of FA wings and landed on Jalen McDaniel as a MLE or MLE+ Free Agent target for Cleveland.

Just one Pod's opinion, but he might be out of reach for Dallas unless Dallas has his Bird rights.  BTW, he's a second rounder with four years under his belt meaning he's in the same boat as Brunson was last season.  Or better, Charlotte is in the same boat Dallas was last season.  BTW, they didn't see Charlotte as a big destination for a high dollar center (not with Wemby on the board).

[F Gump]

PJ has been the one I've been screaming about on here. He would solve a lot of the lineup issues IMO. Having a younger/better Maxi is what the team needs, with their current roster construction. Having two of them (when/if Maxi is healthy) will help much more in the playoffs.

There's been no indication PJ's ever REALLY been available, and it doesn't look like he's available now either, nor in the summer.

With Miles Bridges basically out of their mix, they are likely to pay to retain PJ.

[ItsGoTime]

There's been no indication PJ's ever REALLY been available, and it doesn't look like he's available now either, nor in the summer.

With Miles Bridges basically out of their mix, they are likely to pay to retain PJ.

There was a report earlier this year that said they were looking to resign Bridges back. Might have been a public heat check into making that decision though and I did see the recent report about them being interested in signing PJ, so maybe the blowback was convincing enough to throw that plan out.

[Smitty]

There's been no indication PJ's ever REALLY been available, and it doesn't look like he's available now either, nor in the summer.

With Miles Bridges basically out of their mix, they are likely to pay to retain PJ.

At one point he was rumored to be available. Probably before the Miles situation, but it was no secret Jordan was wanting to shed money and resigning PJ was supposedly at the bottom of the to-do list. I agree with you that they probably retain him now.

[IamDougieFresh]

Wood may have more value than Powell, but probably not a ton more.

Couldn't resist.

https://twitter.com/brasilcoast2/status/...54561?s=20&t=E1W8kHf47rOXEM-6ZOzu2A