Rock and a Hard Place

[Mavs2021]

The correct plan is the plan the Mavs never execute. Trade for a combination of bad contracts + upside players on cheap contracts. Grind your way out of this mess. 

I don´t think players like Reddish, Hachimura, McDaniels or Bitadze even have to be much better than they are right now to be actual improvements in our current situation. Worst case they are sideways moves.

We all overrate our veteran players. We have had people flat out reject trades like Powell for Randle or Kleber for Markkanen on the idea that Powell/Kleber are actually better players. 

Jalen McDaniels is not a worse player than Reggie Bullock.
Goga Bitadze is not a worse player than Javale McGee.
Gordon Hayward is not a worse player than THJ. (maybe more injured, but THJ misses his fair share of games, and somewhere you have to pay the prize for your bad decisions of the past)
Cam Reddish is not a worse player than Davis Bertans.
Rui Hachimura is not a worse player than Dwight Powell.

The problem is the Mavs don´t believe in upside, overrate their own/the wrong players (that´s how you end up with a shitty team with a high pay-roll) and despite all of that Cuban is a cheap owner, too.

This franchise is not smart enough to work on a budget and as long as Cuban is not willing to spend his way out of this mess smartly (he simply has to take on salary this year and next year to upgrade the roster), we are all just waiting for the inevitable Luka trade request to happen.

Well there will obviously be the big bang trade like Green/Hardy/DFS/Dinwiddie/four first round picks for Lillard or Harden and once that fails it´s over.  

They have changed the front office and the coach, but 18 months later the strategies still stink of Cuban. We, me included, actually waste our time. Nothing has or will change.

100% if they do a panic trade these suckers will send a 1st for Conley or Bogdanovic.

[mvossman]

Everything starts with Wood.  That decision needs to be made before the TDL.  If they haven't yet, they need to offer the full max now.  It seems easily worth the gamble at this point.  I'm not convinced he can't be a starting center on a contender, but a 20 and 10 guy who can score at all three levels and create their own shot is going to be worth at least that contract.  They can't let this go to the offseason, but also not excited about being in a position where we have to trade him at the deadline either.

I wonder if Cuban is waiting on the Timmy for Levert deal in order to pull the trigger on the extension.  That will allow him to keep Wood and stay under the tax.  I think they could still sign Powell with a big haircut.  That would mean we are basically running it back next season sans Timmy.  I love the Bullock for Covington trade but regardless, we would have Bertans and Bullock/Covington as expiring fodder along with all of our picks in the offseason.  That is not the worst plan going into the offseason.

[omahen]

Good post. When I think about long term outlook, I think Mavs need one good 2-way wing, for which we will likely have the ammo in the summer. I don't believe they can contend this year (unless that 2-way guy magically happens), so I am not interested in any short term moves. So, all moves to be made I consider have the fit with that 2-way wing in mind.

Expiring:  Wood and Powell

I would extend Wood as I see this as the only win scenario for Mavs from being competitive perspective (unless there is a trade available for a much better player). His value as expiring will be protected FRP at most. Probably from a team looking for that final piece of the puzzle to push for the title. Bostons, Brooklyns and similars. I think he will always produce stats big enough to justify the value they are able to extend him to. Removing THJ or SD with a two way wing can probably make it easier to survive on defense with Wood in.

Powell. If someone is offering value at TDL (part of a trade for a better player) he is by no means off the limits. Otherwise keep him and decide in the summer. His market value is rMLE at best, imho. He certainly brings positive things to the team that go beyond on-court production. I would keep him as a back-up center, basically 15-20 mpg role. Sign him to short term deal so you always have an expiring contract on hand. I think yesterdays game was a good example why Powell works on defense and some other centers doesn't. He is able to switch in PnR, as Mavs basically don't have on ball defenders capable of fighting through screens.

Reggie and Spencer

I would wait till summer unless something really good comes along. Their expiring deals could be very important in "that big trade", probably more than what they could bring in a "talent dump" sale. Of course Bullock might have just improved his trade value a lot, so if there is someone offering much, I would sell high. I doubt we can get much value for SD unless we take some bad contract back. That bad contract will give us more long term trouble than the assets would give us benefits, imho. I think the future of SD depends on who that 2-way wing would be. But I see him as 6th man type and I would pay him accordingly. If he is not ok with that, I seek for trade in the summer or next TDL.

THJ, Bertans and McGee

THJ - if you can get an asset and a year shorter deal coming back, I would do it. I am not much into expiring deals (LeVert) as I am affraid this will only be a salary saving deal.

Bertans and McGee. No need to waste words. If anyone is willing to take them as matching salary in "that one big move", they are available. If someone is willing to trade a player that doesn't work on their team (equal length contract), you consider doing it. If someone is offering a shorter deal for their services, you do it. These two contracts are Mavs problem, not THJ, Wood and other ones. If there is nothing of the above, don't waste assets to dump them.

[KillerLeft]

Reggie for RoCo could possibly be something after watching the no center group last night.

Sign me up.

[omahen]

Hartenstein

In my opinion, the train when it made sense to bring him in is gone. Now he is an expensive back-up big - I don't believe he is a starter material. I am satisfied with Powell in that back-up role and he should cost less money. At least we know what we have in Powell.

I think Bullock is more valuable player

[omahen]

Something like Frank and a 2nd for Thybulle.

I would love that, but I am affraid you would have to send more salary, which Philly would not be interested for, as they need to drop a couple of million to get under the tax. Unless you are able to include them as a part of a three team deal. LeVert for Hardaway, for example.

[omahen]

Reggie for RoCo

I think RB value is the interesting discussion. He has great value playing as he has in the last couple of games. So, can the Mavs sell the story that this is what you get with him? Wait for him half a season to get into form, then he is a great 3-D wing.

RoCo has been bad whole season and not all that great for a couple of years now. I am not sure Mavs gain anything with this. Both are expiring next season. I would consider it only, if LAC would include assets in the deal.

[ItsGoTime]

Expand that NYK trade and it gets us, in general, the right pieces in the right place.

Bullock/Powell/Frank/McGee/1-2SRPs for Rose/Hartenstein/Reddish 

Luka/SD/THJ/DFS/Wood 
Rose/Green/Reddish/Maxi/Hartenstein 

The sore thumb in that starting lineup is THJ out of necessity that he start because he has to in order to play at his best. He’s the biggest offseason priority to use with the picks to find another missing piece. THJ and a couple picks for OG would be amazing to me.

Rose has a team option, so his and Green’s spot need to be filled (because the rest of the year Green is gonna show how indispensable he is for the starters). 

Reddish shows some stuff and is resigned at a reasonable rate (MLE or less). If he doesn’t show much, look to SnT him since he is restricted, or sign him at around what he is making now.

Next year the lineup is something like:

Luka/Green/OG/DFS/Wood (extended after the deadline)
SD/Hardy/Reddish/Maxi/Hartenstein 
All development players or vet min vets mix and match. Oh, and Bertans if we didn’t use him in a trade.

[mvossman]

Is Bullock for Hartenstein a balanced deal?  Sims has looked good with Robinson out.  NY probably needs Reggie more than it does three centers once Robinson returns.

Maybe add McGee/Cam to the deal and we give them the second they want.  But, even without that, IH is an asset beyond his current contract.  I’m not sure the same is true with Reggie.

I really liked Hartenstein in the offseason.  Would have been very happy to get him on McGee's contract.  But he has had a really down year so far.  His TS has dropped from mid 60s to mid 50s and his block rate is way down.  Not sure why this is?

Assuming Wood comes back reasonably soon, I think we are hurting at power forward right now more than center.  I'm not a huge fan of Wood/Powell combo and I doubt I would like the Wood/Hart combo any better, and you cant play Powell/Hart.  I might like the Covington option better from the standpoint of backfilling this season and salary trade fodder next.  I get the long term appeal of Hartenstein, but that is only if he goes back to playing like he did for LA vs what he is doing now.

[DallasMaverick]

By the way, your title is also the title of a GREAT and little known song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo4sop80zJU

Another great song:

https://youtu.be/A_CBkvn7rL8

[omahen]

Reddish shows some stuff and is resigned at a reasonable rate (MLE or less). If he doesn’t show much, look to SnT him since he is restricted, or sign him at around what he is making now.

I think the risk with Reddish is his QO, which is 8 mil. If Reddish wouldn't be good for Mavs, the most likely option is he walks in the summer, imho.

[cow]

We just can't compete with the elite teams in the league this year and we don't have the assets to make a move to allow us to compete.  We should obviously try to be sellers at the deadline.  Opportunistic sellers, but sellers none the less.  This isn't Cuban's style though so the chances of that happening are next to none.

[ItsGoTime]

In my opinion, the train when it made sense to bring him in is gone. Now he is an expensive back-up big - I don't believe he is a starter material. I am satisfied with Powell in that back-up role and he should cost less money. At least we know what we have in Powell.

I think Bullock is more valuable player

I don’t think $7M is bad at all for the second string C. If Hart can regain his form from last year when he comes here he outplays that contract.

[ItsGoTime]

I think the risk with Reddish is his QO, which is 8 mil. If Reddish wouldn't be good for Mavs, the most likely option is he walks in the summer, imho.

Ah, that is a bit more than I was wanting to pay if he doesn’t look very good after getting him. Although what he looks like with the team after trade could look drastically different after a training camp and full season.

[mvossman]

I think RB value is the interesting discussion. He has great value playing as he has in the last couple of games. So, can the Mavs sell the story that this is what you get with him? Wait for him half a season to get into form, then he is a great 3-D wing.

RoCo has been bad whole season and not all that great for a couple of years now. I am not sure Mavs gain anything with this. Both are expiring next season. I would consider it only, if LAC would include assets in the deal.

I think Covington has been a better player than Bollock the last couple of seasons, and while he is having a down year, it has not been nearly as bad as Bullock before this last week or two.  He also fits a position of need (especially given the injuries) where Bullock is potentially taking minutes away from the young guys.  I don't need an asset back to make that trade.

[omahen]

I don’t think $7M is bad at all for the second string C. If Hart can regain his form from last year when he comes here he outplays that contract.

I think Powell is perfectly ok in the role of a back-up center and we know what we have in him. I don't think Hartenstein has way more upside. He can't shoot, he is foul prone and unlikely to be able to play more than 20 mpg. In that light I don't think he could outplay his contract value. I doubt teams are looking to pay even more for a back-up big and see value in that. I think it is also possible he would be worse than Powell.

[ItsGoTime]

I think Powell is perfectly ok in the role of a back-up center and we know what we have in him. I don't think Hartenstein has way more upside. He can't shoot, he is foul prone and unlikely to be able to play more than 20 mpg. In that light I don't think he could outplay his contract value. I doubt teams are looking to pay even more for a back-up big and see value in that. I think it is also possible he would be worse than Powell.

I do value your eye for talent, I just think his best self will be an 8 ppg, 6 rpg, 1 bpg, 18 mpg backup C with at least league average efficiency. No guarantee that happens, but at 24, there’s still time.

Edit: Oh, and I think the Mavs have paid Powell enough that he should be a vet min contract. That also is what I think other C’s at his skillset and contribution are at. I don’t think he will have any takers for more than that either. Would love for him to stay and be the vet leader he has been, but if he does happen to get a bigger offer, we should not entertain the thought of retaining him.

[omahen]

I think Covington has been a better player than Bollock the last couple of seasons, and while he is having a down year, it has not been nearly as bad as Bullock before this last week or two. 

Bullocks average is nothing special. But he has traditionally a couple of months of very below average performance and a couple of months of great performances each season. The good months are much better than what RoCo provides as he is more balanced throughout the season. In this light I prefer Bullock in the second half of the season, unless assets are coming my way. For the expiring salary match next season, Bullock or RoCo basically make zero difference.

Another thing - looking at LAC roster, I am not even sure why they would have any interest in RB. They have endless roster of good players that can play on positions 2-3: George, Kawhi, Powell, Kennard, Mann, young guys. Not sure where RB brings improvement. Number one thing for them is to get healthy. Number two, they could perhaps use another center (either back-up or even better one than Zubac). 

However, lets assume LAC is looking at Bullock. Here is "my" negotiating position:

Dear Clippers. I know you have the highest expectations this season, if you can get your team healthy. Your stars are getting older and will likely not become less injury prone as time goes by. Us, on the other hand, we have more time. Our only goal this season is to get Luka in MVP consideration, we are not contending. We have time. Bullock is a known offseason player, as you could see last season. He played 40+ mpg, provided great deffense and hit his shots. Not sure where you would use him on your current roster, but it was you that called me. I know he hasn't been good, but he is rounding up to his best version now. He is also a fan favorite and we noticed 10 % increase in women audience caused by his stimulating haircut. 

As I said, I am not really looking to get competitive this season and I know you are not calling because you want to trade George. So, looking at your roster, how about RoCo? You have a logjam at PF and he is declining last couple of seasons. He is a year older and costs a bit more than RB. So, taken all of this into consideration, I would need something more to appease the governor and fans. What do you think about Brandon Boston and a second rounder? I could use a couple of cheap bodies next season. Not likely any of them would give us much value, but we have to put 15 bodies on the bench.

[Mavs2021]

I think the risk with Reddish is his QO, which is 8 mil. If Reddish wouldn't be good for Mavs, the most likely option is he walks in the summer, imho.

If you make trades for Reddish, McDaniels or Hachimura, you already have a contract extension agreement in place. It makes no sense to do such a trade as another tryout. That´s just wasting more assets. You trust your talent evaluation on the spot, agree on the contract and work from there. Also decreases the tension on both sides as the Mavs try to integrate the player as best as possible into the (play-off) rotation, while the player is (otherwise) desperate for minutes to showcase himself for the summer.

And I think that is actually do-able.

THJ to Cleveland
Levert + Powell to Charlotte
Hayward + McDaniels to Dallas

Bullock + 2nd round pick to Washington
Hachimura to Dallas

Fournier + McGee + Ntilikina + 6M in cash (from Dallas) + 1st round pick (from New York) two 2nd round picks (from NY + Dallas) to Orlando
Bamba + Reddish to Dallas
Harris + Ross to New York

Doncic/Dinwiddie/Hardy
Green/Hayward/Lawson
DFS/McDaniels/Reddish
Hachimura/Kleber/Bertans
Wood/Bamba/X

But all that would require Cuban to change course, strategically and financially, but I just can´t help myself. LOL.

[omahen]

If you make trades for Reddish, McDaniels or Hachimura, you already have a contract extension agreement in place.

You want to extend Reddish for a value that would be preffered to him than his QO? After Atlanta got rid of him and he stuck to the bench in NY? Perhaps the best way would be that he takes his QO and you have a one year tryout and an expiring contract.