12-28-2022, 04:21 PM
(12-28-2022, 03:26 PM)Nowitzki Way Wrote:
Just a random compilation. Nothing official. Wanted to give a visual for those who doubt Luka could reach the top 15-20.
They were so bold on The NBA Podcast today to raise the issue of how long before Lebron vs. Michael is replaced by Luka vs. Lebron. They pointed out that Luka is doing more in fewer minutes than Lebron was at the same point in their careers (five seasons). Below is an averaging of the season averages (which is slightly different than the per game average for each season, but the numbers were easier to come by). Note how close almost all of these numbers are:
Lebron Luka
Minutes 41.1 34.5
FGA 21.2 20.3
FG% .466 .466
3PA 4.0 8.2
3P% .322 .340
EFG .496 .535
FTA 8.7 8.2
FT% .730 .737
DRB 5.6 7.6
TRB 6.9 8.6
ASST 6.6 8.2
STL 1.8 1.2
TOV 3.3 4.1
PTS 27.4 27.9
Bear in mind that Lebron is achieving virtually identical counting stats while playing 19% more minutes. OK, Luka has more Assists, Rebounds and TO's, but everything else is about the same. It is kind of uncanny.
But wait!!! Now normalize the minutes and not only does Lebron never score as much per 36 in his first five years as Luka has averaged per 36 in that time (28.6), Lebron has only achieved that number per 36 once in 20 years (last season). Lebron has never once achieved a per 36 rebounding number equal to what Luka has averaged in his first 5 years per 36 (9.0). There have only been two seasons in 20 where Lebron's per 36 assists have bested the per 36 assists Luka has averaged his first five years (8.5)
So, the perception that Luka and Lebron were similar in their first five years is almost completely about the extra minutes Lebron played. Even without the extra minutes, Luka bests his numbers. Normalize the minutes and almost any scoring, rebounding or assist season for Lebron is a disappointment compared to what Luka is averaging super early in his career. Top 15-20. Yeah, just a matter of health.