Game 30: Dallas Mavericks (18-12) vs. Phoenix Suns (14-15)| 128-114 WIN!!!

[omahen]

Luka best in biggest games as always. 50 points on great shooting despite being double teamed most of the game. Phoenix lacks good defenders to limit guys like him. Good defense on Booker/Durant which are several levels below Luka.

[Mavs2021]

Did anyone else notice KD just left without shaking hands with a towel over his head? He really is “Cupcake.” How long before he requests a trade to Boston, one of the LA teams, Miami or Denver?

He´s never been a leader. Westbrook (and Adams) were the leader in OKC, but if he had hung around 1-2 more years, he´d have won a championship more valuable than all he has won or will win. He´d have been given the credit as the clear (and loyal) #1 guy that he so desperately craves to be. Now he´ll always be Curry´s coattail rider, that couldn´t hack it on his own. 

I´m kinda hoping he has the beta mentally installed in Booker, so he joins Luka, when his contract is up. 

[sefant]

There was a post earlier today that said the emergence of Exum and Lively is a reason to be patient.  I see the point, but I can also argue it is a reason to make a deal for that missing big.  None of GWill, Powell or Holmes is the answer behind Lively (and Maxi isn’t either).  Imagine this team with Naz instead of Grant.

well, i rather see Holmes for now. There is no reason to continue to play Kidd's favorite defensive duo of Tim and Powell together at the same time. The players that can cover for that duo aren't on the roster, or might not be on planet earth.

Not surprised Green on/off (+/-) looked awful if the majority of his mins is with that duo early on.

[OBX Maverick]

Great win.  Withstood off three point shooting in the second and third and suns hit shooting in the third.  Buckled up in the fourth with solid D and Phx had no chance stopping Luka.  What a performance by Luka.  How about Jones who was missing shots but never hesitated and continued to make some plays off the dribble.  Also Lively who struggled with free throws but hit two in the fourth.

What was the deal with KD tonight.  Was just a guy out there.

I hope Luka now realizes the value of his physical conditioning. Luka of year’s past wouldn’t have been able to keep drilling shots and free throws nor would he have been as active on the defensive end like he was tonight playing 40 minutes+. Do we want him playing these kind of minutes regularly? Of course not, but it’s nice to see that he can better handle them now and be effective in the 4th quarter doing so.  Kudos to him, DJJ, and Lively tonight!

[Winter]

So Exum scores only a few points (3-7), and yet he has 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal and helps holds Booker to 20 points and -18 plus/minus ... the worst on the Phoenix team. A really great example of why he's important.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

I know it's not Exum's game to chuck away as much as THJ. Exum's offensive game relies on speed and deception, if you ask him to be the focal point of an offense when Luka and Kyrie aren't in, he'd probably pass more than score. But I'm hoping Exum gets more attempts on drives and do pull up jumpers more when he is denied a driving lane. He isn't Green who'd totally defer, so I'm thinking he knows he is behind THJ on the totem pole as far as shots are concerned.

Exum driving the lane, or at least trying to break down defenses with his dribble is my preferred choice of O over a THJ led offense (when Luka and Ky are out). At least let him probe for weak spots rather than just settle for a screen and a 3 from THJ.

[Chicagojk]

Such an awesome unexpected skill. Reggie Bullock couldnt do this on his best day. DFS did it at times. When you add him to Exum who does this often, having two guys who can make some plays against scrambling defense is a really nice plus.

https://x.com/iztok_franko/status/173964...54692?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

[DanSchwartzgan]

well, i rather see Holmes for now. There is no reason to continue to play Kidd's favorite defensive duo of Tim and Powell together at the same time. The players that can cover for that duo aren't on the roster, or might not be on planet earth.

Not surprised Green on/off (+/-) looked awful if the majority of his mins is with that duo early on.

Kidd has every reason to give Holmes a shot and he hasn't.  There is nothing in the numbers in the little time we've seen him to indicate he's the answer.  At some point this is a repeat of the Wood saga.  We can blame Kidd for the player's inadequacy or we can move on and decide the player isn't who he used to be.  At least in the Wood saga there was the idea the team was trying to hold down his value.  No such motivation exists with Holmes.  In fact, quite the opposite.

I think you are right about the Green on/off numbers.  I'm not sure I can attribute the offensive decline to this, but defensively a close observer would note that Green doesn't get the help that other PnR defenders do.  The scheme appears to be to help on drives (or pre-rotate before drives ever start) and try to get back out to contest 3's.  But, when Josh is in (especially with THJ), it appears to be "Tim, please just try to find someone to guard and let Josh do the best he can".  The total lack of rim protection without Lively also contributes to this.

I think we've landed on the best starting lineup given the current roster (Luka, Kyrie, Exum, DJJ and Lively).  Besides health, I don't think we can ask much more from that group.  We will live or die in the playoffs on DJJ and Exum making open 3's.  The greatest opportunity for internal improvement is on the bench.  Green, THJ, GWill and all of the center candidate have been disappointing:

Green's numbers are down across the board.  The theory of Josh (or even what he used to be) would be very valuable here when one or two of Exum, Kyrie or Luka is sitting.  But it hasn't worked.  Just get him back to that guy who was in the 56th percentile for EPM last season (much higher before the first elbow injury) and you have a key element of your bench.

THJ needs to find his D again.  His D-EPM, D-BPM and DWS are all career worsts.  He's gone too far in embracing the all-O and no-D sixth man role.  This is the first full season in Dallas where he's been an On-Court negative.

GWill never was all-that.  He's been a middle of the pack guy by EPM the last two years in the low 50's.  This year it is 31 and the D-EPM of 15 is dramatically worse than his prior years of 73, 55, 82 and 80.  Hopefully he can bring that up against bench players.

We don't have an opportunity for internal growth at the five.  It is evident Powell has lost the verticality that once gave him an advantage offensively.  Like THJ, this is the first year he's been an On-Court negative since 2016-2017.  His D, what there was of it, has also seen a decline by most measures.  I've already addressed Holmes and I don't think Maxi is the answer either.  He was just awful to start the season.  But, this isn't new.  His net production (82games) has been in decline for a couple of years.  He was always a net negative compared to his direct opponent because of his lack of offensive production.  But, it was in the 3-5 point range.  Last year that doubled to 10 and this year it was 13 when he got hurt.  The idea of what Maxi used to be is sorely missed here.  I'm just not sure it still exists and even if he came back and showed us that guy again, I can't trust it will stay healthy for the playoffs.

The lineup is upside down with Exum/DJJ proving to be good and Green/GWill disappointing.  Green/GWill have a shot at turning that around and a good Green would allow Kidd to coax a little D from THJ as he could steal some of his minutes.  The theory of star guard running the show with Green/THJ/GWill makes great sense but hasn't worked yet:

THJ/Green lineups are -3.0
GWill/THJ lineups are -8.1
GWill/Green lineups are +5.0

But, look at what happens when these guys are paired with a shot blocker.

Lively/Green lineups are +3.4
Lively/GWill lineups are +4.8
Lively/THJ lineups are +1.5

Lively/Green/GWill lineups are +14.0
Lively/THJ/GWill lineups are +1.0

Adding someone to fill any of those three slots (and the PG slot) shouldn't be necessary.  But, the thing that would make this really work would be to provide some rim protection when Lively is sitting. PG/Green/THJ/GWill should be fantastic offensively, but they won't stop anyone without someone to stop the layup line.

[Reunion Mav]

Dan you and Sleeping Hero in the other thread really met my morning wish for excellent analysis. Thank you both!

So it makes me wonder just how much you think a back up center who provides rim protection would improve this current team?

[mvossman]

Adding someone to fill any of those three slots (and the PG slot) shouldn't be necessary.  But, the thing that would make this really work would be to provide some rim protection when Lively is sitting. PG/Green/THJ/GWill should be fantastic offensively, but they won't stop anyone without someone to stop the layup line.

I agree with all of this, but am really struggling with sending out an unprotected first for the primary purpose of landing a backup center.  I think I am to the point where I am willing to send out Hardy.  I still think he has potential to develop into a strong 6th man, but I don't think we can afford to give him the development time needed right now.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I agree with all of this, but am really struggling with sending out an unprotected first for the primary purpose of landing a backup center.  I think I am to the point where I am willing to send out Hardy.  I still think he has potential to develop into a strong 6th man, but I don't think we can afford to give him the development time needed right now.

That would be my preference also.  But, I'm open to swaps on the 2027 pick or even a protected pick for a single year that is backed by the 2028 second rounder.

[fifteenth]

I agree with all of this, but am really struggling with sending out an unprotected first for the primary purpose of landing a backup center.  I think I am to the point where I am willing to send out Hardy.  I still think he has potential to develop into a strong 6th man, but I don't think we can afford to give him the development time needed right now.

It's a bit of a gut punch to see both Hardy and Josh be so bad. We have a decent team this year, with zero help from what we hoped would be internal development of a couple of promising players.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Dan you and Sleeping Hero in the other thread really met my morning wish for excellent analysis. Thank you both!

So it makes me wonder just how much you think a back up center who provides rim protection would improve this current team?

Thanks!

I actually do.  There is a data point that says the Mav's are undefeated when they hold teams to a D-Rating under 120.  That 120 number happens to also be the worst season-long team D-Rating in the league (well, 121 currently, but it was 120 when I first heard this number).  I think I remember that we are like 1-11 when we give up over 120 D-Rating, but I haven't updated that myself to know if that has changed.  You get the point.

So, what needs to happen so that we aren't the worst D in the league on any given night?  We have 11 five man lineups that have played at least 10 minutes and have a D-Rating over 120.  All but one include THJ.  Seven of those are with Powell, three are with Lively and one is with Morris.  Almost all of those lineups include Luka.  That doesn't mean the same thing doesn't happen with Irving.  There just aren't as many lineups with 10 minutes or more.  But, Hardaway is all over the Irving based lineups that have a D-Rating worse than 120.

So, we have two choices...Move on from THJ or find a way to make THJ OK.  The interesting thing about the Lively/THJ lineups that give up a lot of points is they tend to score a lot of points too and many have a positive net rating.  It is the 'anyone else' lineups with THJ that just kill you.  So, if THJ's shooting/scoring is necessary to making the bench unit work (and it might be), then you have to change centers.  The priority has to be defense for this spot.  Anything else they provide is just gravy.

[Chicagojk]

Luka when he realizes the Suns are on the schedule.

https://x.com/brendan_mau/status/1739481...52496?s=20

[Chicagojk]

This offseason the Suns got so much praise how they were able to piece together a roster with merry minimums. I was one of them. I thought they took a real rough situation and did well. Maybe it will work out in time, but it hasn't looked great recently. Some of the names people really liked, have not really had an impact.

I was thinking last night, how much the Suns would be different if they signed Exum and Jones Jr (and maybe another cheap PG) instead of all the guys they signed.

[Winter]

This offseason the Suns got so much praise how they were able to piece together a roster with merry minimums.  I was one of them.  I thought they took a real rough situation and did well.  Maybe it will work out in time, but it hasn't looked great recently.  Some of the names people really liked, have not really had an impact.

I was thinking last night, how much the Suns would be different if they signed Exum and Jones Jr (and maybe another cheap PG) instead of all the guys they signed.

A lot of pundits showered praise initially. I've posted here a couple of times how empty the stat sheet is outside of the Suns starting five. Essentially, Nassar Little is the only player who can even manage double figures on occasion.

Their rotation players aren't horrible, but these are rotation players that don't ever see the ball if they're playing with the starters, and they simply aren't any good when forced to play alongside lesser players. It's further exacerbated by having no real PG.

I do not believe this is a team that will suddenly "get their act together." This is a team of misfit toys if there ever was one.

[Jmaciscool]

He´s never been a leader. Westbrook (and Adams) were the leader in OKC, but if he had hung around 1-2 more years, he´d have won a championship more valuable than all he has won or will win. He´d have been given the credit as the clear (and loyal) #1 guy that he so desperately craves to be. Now he´ll always be Curry´s coattail rider, that couldn´t hack it on his own. 

I´m kinda hoping he has the beta mentally installed in Booker, so he joins Luka, when his contract is up. 

Wait, when has KD ever actually been on his own? 

[MFFL]

This offseason the Suns got so much praise how they were able to piece together a roster with merry minimums.  I was one of them.  I thought they took a real rough situation and did well.  Maybe it will work out in time, but it hasn't looked great recently.  Some of the names people really liked, have not really had an impact.

I was thinking last night, how much the Suns would be different if they signed Exum and Jones Jr (and maybe another cheap PG) instead of all the guys they signed.

Those two and Kelly Oubre Jr. have been steals this season

[fifteenth]

Here's a really great breakdown of the Pheonix game and of this season's Luka...

https://youtu.be/PZESWd65RdU?si=dP05Rrl983iwWSjC