06-14-2023, 07:57 AM
Summaries:
Walker
Walker is a fascinating player. It’s easy to imagine his role as a havoc-inducing defensive four who blocks shots on the weak side and plays switchable defense. That especially all comes together in an interesting package of skills if Walker becomes a consistent shooter, given his playmaking ability as a passer. But if the shooting isn’t there, it does become a bit trickier to make him work as a four given that he’s also not all that impactful as a half-court driver and finisher right now. He might end up being more of a small-ball, switchy big man, which is relatively OK, but it probably does limit his upside a touch given that he’s not elite at finishing possessions as a rebounder, and he isn’t quite as elite as a primary rim protector. There are a few more tweener risks with Walker than what I think has been displayed. Still, if it works, and Walker becomes capable as a switchable four who can hit shots, his upside as a winning player is enormous due to how he processes the game so quickly as a passer. I don’t see Walker as an All-Star, but he might be someone who helps a winning team in a big way, just as he did with Houston.
Hendricks
I love Hendricks going to a team that is well-situated in terms of shot creation and thus could allow him to come along more slowly in that respect. He’s a ways off from being able to impact the game as a ballhandler or creator, but Hendricks possesses the kind of 3-and-D game that could be a real difference-maker to teams that need those skills. And almost every team with an established hierarchy of stars needs those skills. Hendricks is 6-foot-9 in shoes, he’s long and switchable, and he defends the rim well from the weak side. He has potential to be an awesome pick-and-roll defender due to his versatility, and his length will take up a larger portion of the court than the normal run-of-the-mill wing prospect. The number of players 6-foot-9 or taller who enter the league as plus defenders and plus shooters is extremely minimal. It’s Jabari Smith Jr., Franz Wagner, Trey Murphy III and Jaren Jackson Jr. since 2018. That’s why Hendricks is going to hear his name called in the lottery. It’s hard to see how this skill set fails, even with his faults. He does the three most important things a role player in the NBA can do: He shoots it well off the catch, he defends well in space and he plays well within help defensive concepts. Throw in that he’s still a teenager with real upside, and you shouldn’t be surprised if he hears his name called in the top 10.
Black
Black is the kind of player I tend to love and sometimes tend to overrate. I love bigger guards who have real athleticism and can process the game well when playing at full speed. These types of players who can clearly think about the game at an exceptionally high level tend to be able to figure it out when it comes down to it. That’s my bet on Black. I think he’ll figure it out. He has a fast brain, and he is athletic enough to make things happen out on the court. He must be able to at least continue to show growth as a shooter, though. There have been enough flashes with him off the catch to where I think he has potential to make it work. And if that skill translates, he should be able to really make an impact as the kind of big secondary initiator and creator whom every team is looking for next to a high-end perimeter star. A bet on him shooting is worth a mid-lottery pick to me, because if the shooting translates, he’s going to be a very impactful player. And he’ll be the kind of player who might impact winning at the highest levels of the league.
Ausar Thompson
In my opinion, the shooting question is much more important for Ausar than it is for Amen. Because Ausar figures to be playing off the ball much more often, he’ll be asked to space the floor and not allow his man to sag off him and shrink the floor in a significant way. If he can’t shoot, there’s a chance it’s hard for him to start in the NBA. That’s why his floor is a bit lower than Amen’s, in my view. Having said that, if he does shoot it – and again, both twins are extremely high-level workers – the ceiling for Ausar is extremely high. It would open his game entirely on offense because it would allow him to be that secondary creator who plays out of ball screens on the second side but also can attack off the catch off kickouts to continue to bend defenses. His driving game would open because he’d be able to attack more often in straight lines. His passing is terrific for a secondary creator at 6-foot-7. His defense has real upside that is probably just below All-Defense caliber. All that leads to a legitimate AllStar ceiling. The player he most reminds me of is Andre Iguodala right now. It’s all going to come down to how much you trust the human beings involved and how confident you feel in how the ball comes out of his hands even if the mechanics are a work in progress. If you’re a believer, you might have Ausar as high as No. 4 on your board. If you’re not, it’s reasonable to have him somewhere more in the middle of the first round. I’m much more on the believer side because I believe in him to figure out an answer on the jumper. But there is some risk.
Coulibaly
Coulibaly is one of the most interesting mixes of immense upside and raw, unrefined polish to enter the NBA Draft in a long time. There are so many pieces of Coulibaly’s game that make you want to buy in. His athletic tools are incredible and are exactly what every single team across the league is looking for. He plays hard and plays unselfishly. In open spaces, it’s clear that if he can tighten up his handle, his downhill speed and potential is real. He is willing to understand his role and play with a high motor, doing whatever it takes to get on the floor and help the team. Defensively, it’s not an exaggeration to say that his physical gifts give him genuine upside to become an All-Defense player. His jump shot is far from broken. He clearly has natural touch. But he also doesn’t do enough on the court right now either. He’s an incredibly low-volume offensive player. His handle is going to really take some time to develop for it to be functional in the NBA. His jumper, while far from broken, is probably a multiyear project in terms of getting him confident enough from NBA range at the speed that will be necessary for him to get it off at volume. And even on defense, he’s still kind of a step slow when he’s away from the ball. His role is so limited because it’s hard to gauge what his NBA floor is, even with the knowledge that he dominated the youth level there. I don’t think there is a prospect in this draft with a wider gap between what his floor and his ceiling is. He has all the tools to be an All-Star, and we all want to buy into players reaching their fullest potential. But because he is such a late bloomer physically and is just starting down this road, I’m not sure we have enough evidence on how strong his feel for the game is or what his overall potential is as a creator. Coulibaly is the epitome of a player where you will see what you want to see. If you want to see the best in prospects and value the best flashes, you’re going to love him. If you nitpick players’ weaknesses, he has a lot of them, and you’re probably going to be less interested. What I’m most worried about is a team drafting him and not willing to be patient and ride out what will undeniably be a long-term project. If a team is willing to go slow like Metropolitans did this year and give him a couple of years to figure things out, the return could be immense. But if they try to rush things or get impatient, Coulibaly might get lost given how much of his skill and feel-based parts of the game he still must develop. Your guess is as good as mine on where Coulibaly’s career ends. But he’s undeniably worth making an informed bet on with a top-20 pick to find out, and I wouldn’t begrudge anyone taking him late in the lottery.
Walker
Walker is a fascinating player. It’s easy to imagine his role as a havoc-inducing defensive four who blocks shots on the weak side and plays switchable defense. That especially all comes together in an interesting package of skills if Walker becomes a consistent shooter, given his playmaking ability as a passer. But if the shooting isn’t there, it does become a bit trickier to make him work as a four given that he’s also not all that impactful as a half-court driver and finisher right now. He might end up being more of a small-ball, switchy big man, which is relatively OK, but it probably does limit his upside a touch given that he’s not elite at finishing possessions as a rebounder, and he isn’t quite as elite as a primary rim protector. There are a few more tweener risks with Walker than what I think has been displayed. Still, if it works, and Walker becomes capable as a switchable four who can hit shots, his upside as a winning player is enormous due to how he processes the game so quickly as a passer. I don’t see Walker as an All-Star, but he might be someone who helps a winning team in a big way, just as he did with Houston.
Hendricks
I love Hendricks going to a team that is well-situated in terms of shot creation and thus could allow him to come along more slowly in that respect. He’s a ways off from being able to impact the game as a ballhandler or creator, but Hendricks possesses the kind of 3-and-D game that could be a real difference-maker to teams that need those skills. And almost every team with an established hierarchy of stars needs those skills. Hendricks is 6-foot-9 in shoes, he’s long and switchable, and he defends the rim well from the weak side. He has potential to be an awesome pick-and-roll defender due to his versatility, and his length will take up a larger portion of the court than the normal run-of-the-mill wing prospect. The number of players 6-foot-9 or taller who enter the league as plus defenders and plus shooters is extremely minimal. It’s Jabari Smith Jr., Franz Wagner, Trey Murphy III and Jaren Jackson Jr. since 2018. That’s why Hendricks is going to hear his name called in the lottery. It’s hard to see how this skill set fails, even with his faults. He does the three most important things a role player in the NBA can do: He shoots it well off the catch, he defends well in space and he plays well within help defensive concepts. Throw in that he’s still a teenager with real upside, and you shouldn’t be surprised if he hears his name called in the top 10.
Black
Black is the kind of player I tend to love and sometimes tend to overrate. I love bigger guards who have real athleticism and can process the game well when playing at full speed. These types of players who can clearly think about the game at an exceptionally high level tend to be able to figure it out when it comes down to it. That’s my bet on Black. I think he’ll figure it out. He has a fast brain, and he is athletic enough to make things happen out on the court. He must be able to at least continue to show growth as a shooter, though. There have been enough flashes with him off the catch to where I think he has potential to make it work. And if that skill translates, he should be able to really make an impact as the kind of big secondary initiator and creator whom every team is looking for next to a high-end perimeter star. A bet on him shooting is worth a mid-lottery pick to me, because if the shooting translates, he’s going to be a very impactful player. And he’ll be the kind of player who might impact winning at the highest levels of the league.
Ausar Thompson
In my opinion, the shooting question is much more important for Ausar than it is for Amen. Because Ausar figures to be playing off the ball much more often, he’ll be asked to space the floor and not allow his man to sag off him and shrink the floor in a significant way. If he can’t shoot, there’s a chance it’s hard for him to start in the NBA. That’s why his floor is a bit lower than Amen’s, in my view. Having said that, if he does shoot it – and again, both twins are extremely high-level workers – the ceiling for Ausar is extremely high. It would open his game entirely on offense because it would allow him to be that secondary creator who plays out of ball screens on the second side but also can attack off the catch off kickouts to continue to bend defenses. His driving game would open because he’d be able to attack more often in straight lines. His passing is terrific for a secondary creator at 6-foot-7. His defense has real upside that is probably just below All-Defense caliber. All that leads to a legitimate AllStar ceiling. The player he most reminds me of is Andre Iguodala right now. It’s all going to come down to how much you trust the human beings involved and how confident you feel in how the ball comes out of his hands even if the mechanics are a work in progress. If you’re a believer, you might have Ausar as high as No. 4 on your board. If you’re not, it’s reasonable to have him somewhere more in the middle of the first round. I’m much more on the believer side because I believe in him to figure out an answer on the jumper. But there is some risk.
Coulibaly
Coulibaly is one of the most interesting mixes of immense upside and raw, unrefined polish to enter the NBA Draft in a long time. There are so many pieces of Coulibaly’s game that make you want to buy in. His athletic tools are incredible and are exactly what every single team across the league is looking for. He plays hard and plays unselfishly. In open spaces, it’s clear that if he can tighten up his handle, his downhill speed and potential is real. He is willing to understand his role and play with a high motor, doing whatever it takes to get on the floor and help the team. Defensively, it’s not an exaggeration to say that his physical gifts give him genuine upside to become an All-Defense player. His jump shot is far from broken. He clearly has natural touch. But he also doesn’t do enough on the court right now either. He’s an incredibly low-volume offensive player. His handle is going to really take some time to develop for it to be functional in the NBA. His jumper, while far from broken, is probably a multiyear project in terms of getting him confident enough from NBA range at the speed that will be necessary for him to get it off at volume. And even on defense, he’s still kind of a step slow when he’s away from the ball. His role is so limited because it’s hard to gauge what his NBA floor is, even with the knowledge that he dominated the youth level there. I don’t think there is a prospect in this draft with a wider gap between what his floor and his ceiling is. He has all the tools to be an All-Star, and we all want to buy into players reaching their fullest potential. But because he is such a late bloomer physically and is just starting down this road, I’m not sure we have enough evidence on how strong his feel for the game is or what his overall potential is as a creator. Coulibaly is the epitome of a player where you will see what you want to see. If you want to see the best in prospects and value the best flashes, you’re going to love him. If you nitpick players’ weaknesses, he has a lot of them, and you’re probably going to be less interested. What I’m most worried about is a team drafting him and not willing to be patient and ride out what will undeniably be a long-term project. If a team is willing to go slow like Metropolitans did this year and give him a couple of years to figure things out, the return could be immense. But if they try to rush things or get impatient, Coulibaly might get lost given how much of his skill and feel-based parts of the game he still must develop. Your guess is as good as mine on where Coulibaly’s career ends. But he’s undeniably worth making an informed bet on with a top-20 pick to find out, and I wouldn’t begrudge anyone taking him late in the lottery.
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