06-14-2023, 07:34 AM
Here is his Lively breakdown. May be hard to read.
BACKGROUND Parents are Dereck and Kathy Drysdale. Kathy played for Penn State from 1988 to 1992 and became a 1,000-point scorer on some of the best teams in school history, including the first to be ranked No. 1 in the country. She has been working on the business side in sports for years, first for the 76ers and now for Penn State in marketing. Dereck Sr. passed away when Dereck was young, and Kathy battled cancer. Lively emerged as a terrific prospect early, being seen as a strong four-star prospect by the end of his sophomore season. However, it was the summer after his junior season when Lively truly became one of the elite prospects in his class. He led Team Final to the Nike EYBL Peach Jam championship that summer by dominating the paint, blocking four shots per game and playing exceptionally hard every single game. Skyrocketed to the top of the consensus recruiting rankings following that showing and stayed near the top throughout his senior year. Averaged 14 points, 14 rebounds and nearly five blocks as a senior at Westtown High School and was named the Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year in 2022. He was named to the McDonald’s All-American roster as well as to the Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic. Recruiting services considered him a consensus top-five recruit in the country, and he committed to Duke before his senior season over Penn State and Michigan. The season didn’t start out perfectly for Lively, as he started with a preseason calf injury that held him out of valuable time to get acclimated to his team. It took him a while to get going. But once he did, he soared. Lively earned All-Defense honors in the ACC and made the All-Freshman team. By the end of the year, was arguably the best defensive player in the country. Helped Duke go on an awesome late season run, including an incredibly dominant first round NCAA Tournament victory against Oral Roberts that he spearheaded on defense. Lost in the second round to Tennessee. Decided to declare for the 2023 NBA Draft after the season. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. Had a particularly standout pre-draft process, including a pro day that left scouts extremely interested with him.
STRENGTHS It all starts with the size, which is immense even by NBA center standards. Lively is in the 7-foot-1 ballpark with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, which will be among the longest in the league. We didn’t get combine measurements to confirm that, but he looks giant out there. Has strong mobility and good lateral agility for his size. Solid explosiveness as a leaper. Not wildly impressive but enough to take full advantage of his length when high-pointing the basketball as a rebounder and rim runner. Beyond that, plays with a high-end motor. Works hard constantly. Never have to worry about him not trying to contest a shot or running the floor as hard as he can to open lanes for his teammates. The length comes into play best on the defensive end. By the end of the season, Lively was the best rim protector in college basketball and probably the most impactful overall defensive force. Over his last 18 games, he averaged three blocks in just 25 minutes per game. He completely shut down the paint to obscene levels for the Blue Devils. Per Pivot Analysis, when Lively was on the court in ACC play, the team was 8.2 points per 100 possessions better on defense than when he was off the court. The Blue Devils won Lively minutes by nearly 12 points per 100 possessions versus by only 3.3 points when he was off the court. From Jan. 28 onward, Duke won its minutes with Lively by nearly 18 points per 100 possessions, and its possessions with Lively, Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor by 22 points per 100 possessions. They were dominant in those situations. Opponents only shot 45.6 percent at the rim with Lively on the court in those situations versus 54.2 percent when he was off the court. Lively uses his length well around the rim. Extends his arms high. Has some mechanical flaws we’ll talk about below, but he contests almost everything if he’s within the area of the rim. Good as a help-side player. Has solid instincts and anticipation. Does a good job of knowing where he needs to be and how he needs to rotate. Also good in ball screens. Mobile and versatile in coverages. Duke played hedging schemes, flatter at the level schemes and drop schemes with Lively this past season, and he was solid across the board in space with some issues we’ll get to. Knows how to play the gap between the roller and the guard just by playing as big as possible in drop coverage. It’s genuinely hard to find teenagers this versatile in these settings, and Lively ticks all the boxes. Does a good job of walling up both ballhandlers and post players. Can get moved on the block but generally does a good job of staying in front and contesting. Offensively, he’s a superb lob threat every single time down the court. Runs the court out in transition to beat his man to the basket. Really good over large spaces. Has good hands when the ball is above his chest. Catches the ball and dunks fluidly on lobs with ease. Also has immense upside as a rim runner out of ball screens. Duke didn’t utilize him this way until the back half of the season, but he was useful once Proctor got acclimated to college hoops as a ball screen distributor. Having said that, right now, Lively is a bit better out of the dunker spot. Largely a two-foot leaper. Good at high pointing the ball on lobs and finishes at a high percentage. Being in the dunker spot also allows him to impact the offensive glass. He’s energetic and attacks the glass with his length well. He doesn’t quit on the ball. Averaged over two rebounds on the offensive end in 20 minutes per game. WEAKNESSES Strength will be a factor for Lively early. His overall core strength could be improved. This will come with time as he gets older, but he’ll need to fight through that adversity early. Also, while I think his overall ball screen defense is solid enough, I do think his change of direction skill is not necessarily all that great. He has high hips, so it can be hard for him to turn different ways. Does have a frame that he should grow into well as he gets older to add the strength necessary for his rim protection to hit its potential. He’s an extremely limited player on offense. Doesn’t have any ability off the bounce at this stage of his development. Can’t create his own shot in any way. Will need everything created for him. Does open some driving lanes with his willingness to consistently rim run, which helps. And he finishes when a shot around the rim is created for him. But I don’t think I even feel comfortable with him dribbling the ball right now around any sort of traffic. Will need to really work on his ball control to become valuable as a dribble-handoff threat. Don’t feel great about him as a short-roll outlet player who can dribble and maintain the advantage for offenses in a four-on-three situation while defenses recover. Hasn’t showcased the ability to catch in the 15-foot-area, dribble once or twice and finish. Doesn’t turn the ball over but does end up kicking it back out to restart the offense regularly. Needs to become way more comfortable with the ball to not be a liability when he’s not involved in the primary action. Only averaged five points and one assist this past season. I don’t really love the mechanics on Lively’s shot. This has long been an area that gave Lively more upside than that typical rimrunning five, but it hasn’t quite materialized to this point. Hasn’t ever made them at a high percentage despite a willingness to take them. Has a multi-motion jumper that sometimes includes a pull back toward his forehead after getting the ball into his shooting pocket. Doesn’t have a consistent release point. Sometimes he releases the ball too early; other times, he releases it too late while he’s on the way down. Made just two of his 13 3-point attempts this past season. With Team Final in 2021, he made just 31 percent from 3. There’s a chance he develops into a player who can hit a trailer 3 from the top of the key or corner catch-andshoot 3s, but it’s going to take a lot of work. It’s a legitimate area of potential growth. Lively will have some mechanical flaws to work on defensively. In space, he is good in screens but not awesome when scrambling around after the initial screen defensive action. Think he is prone to being driven and attacked when he has to close back out to shooters who pick-and-pop him (or when he’s scrambling in help). Comes out onto shooters a bit high. Additionally, as a rim protector, it would be impossible to ignore his fouling. It improved throughout the season, but Lively had issues staying on the court. Averaged 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. If you go into Lively’s body as a driver, he tends to bring his arms forward more often than he should. SUMMARY
Lively has an immense number of tools that should make him an impactful NBA player. He’ll have elite size and length among centers. He moves well enough to be versatile defensively in different coverages. And his rim protection should be legitimate. He has strong anticipation around the basket, and he has strong timing for going up to swat shots. He’s just very limited on offense, and it’ll be incumbent upon him to work through that. Even more than the jumper, where Lively needs to improve is with his overall comfort making passing reads. If the jumper comes along, great. There is some real potential for that to happen, and if it does, he’ll be exceptionally valuable. But more than that, Lively needs to become a more fluid player and quicker processor of the game on that end of the court. But he’s such a strong defensive prospect with such good defensive tape late in the season that I think he’s worth a top-20 pick, and I have a lottery grade on him due to his upside on that end. If the offense comes along at all, he has a chance to be a top-10 center in the league. Even if it doesn’t, I buy him as a starter just through the defense and rim running. To me, that’s worth a lottery pick.
BACKGROUND Parents are Dereck and Kathy Drysdale. Kathy played for Penn State from 1988 to 1992 and became a 1,000-point scorer on some of the best teams in school history, including the first to be ranked No. 1 in the country. She has been working on the business side in sports for years, first for the 76ers and now for Penn State in marketing. Dereck Sr. passed away when Dereck was young, and Kathy battled cancer. Lively emerged as a terrific prospect early, being seen as a strong four-star prospect by the end of his sophomore season. However, it was the summer after his junior season when Lively truly became one of the elite prospects in his class. He led Team Final to the Nike EYBL Peach Jam championship that summer by dominating the paint, blocking four shots per game and playing exceptionally hard every single game. Skyrocketed to the top of the consensus recruiting rankings following that showing and stayed near the top throughout his senior year. Averaged 14 points, 14 rebounds and nearly five blocks as a senior at Westtown High School and was named the Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year in 2022. He was named to the McDonald’s All-American roster as well as to the Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic. Recruiting services considered him a consensus top-five recruit in the country, and he committed to Duke before his senior season over Penn State and Michigan. The season didn’t start out perfectly for Lively, as he started with a preseason calf injury that held him out of valuable time to get acclimated to his team. It took him a while to get going. But once he did, he soared. Lively earned All-Defense honors in the ACC and made the All-Freshman team. By the end of the year, was arguably the best defensive player in the country. Helped Duke go on an awesome late season run, including an incredibly dominant first round NCAA Tournament victory against Oral Roberts that he spearheaded on defense. Lost in the second round to Tennessee. Decided to declare for the 2023 NBA Draft after the season. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. Had a particularly standout pre-draft process, including a pro day that left scouts extremely interested with him.
STRENGTHS It all starts with the size, which is immense even by NBA center standards. Lively is in the 7-foot-1 ballpark with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, which will be among the longest in the league. We didn’t get combine measurements to confirm that, but he looks giant out there. Has strong mobility and good lateral agility for his size. Solid explosiveness as a leaper. Not wildly impressive but enough to take full advantage of his length when high-pointing the basketball as a rebounder and rim runner. Beyond that, plays with a high-end motor. Works hard constantly. Never have to worry about him not trying to contest a shot or running the floor as hard as he can to open lanes for his teammates. The length comes into play best on the defensive end. By the end of the season, Lively was the best rim protector in college basketball and probably the most impactful overall defensive force. Over his last 18 games, he averaged three blocks in just 25 minutes per game. He completely shut down the paint to obscene levels for the Blue Devils. Per Pivot Analysis, when Lively was on the court in ACC play, the team was 8.2 points per 100 possessions better on defense than when he was off the court. The Blue Devils won Lively minutes by nearly 12 points per 100 possessions versus by only 3.3 points when he was off the court. From Jan. 28 onward, Duke won its minutes with Lively by nearly 18 points per 100 possessions, and its possessions with Lively, Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor by 22 points per 100 possessions. They were dominant in those situations. Opponents only shot 45.6 percent at the rim with Lively on the court in those situations versus 54.2 percent when he was off the court. Lively uses his length well around the rim. Extends his arms high. Has some mechanical flaws we’ll talk about below, but he contests almost everything if he’s within the area of the rim. Good as a help-side player. Has solid instincts and anticipation. Does a good job of knowing where he needs to be and how he needs to rotate. Also good in ball screens. Mobile and versatile in coverages. Duke played hedging schemes, flatter at the level schemes and drop schemes with Lively this past season, and he was solid across the board in space with some issues we’ll get to. Knows how to play the gap between the roller and the guard just by playing as big as possible in drop coverage. It’s genuinely hard to find teenagers this versatile in these settings, and Lively ticks all the boxes. Does a good job of walling up both ballhandlers and post players. Can get moved on the block but generally does a good job of staying in front and contesting. Offensively, he’s a superb lob threat every single time down the court. Runs the court out in transition to beat his man to the basket. Really good over large spaces. Has good hands when the ball is above his chest. Catches the ball and dunks fluidly on lobs with ease. Also has immense upside as a rim runner out of ball screens. Duke didn’t utilize him this way until the back half of the season, but he was useful once Proctor got acclimated to college hoops as a ball screen distributor. Having said that, right now, Lively is a bit better out of the dunker spot. Largely a two-foot leaper. Good at high pointing the ball on lobs and finishes at a high percentage. Being in the dunker spot also allows him to impact the offensive glass. He’s energetic and attacks the glass with his length well. He doesn’t quit on the ball. Averaged over two rebounds on the offensive end in 20 minutes per game. WEAKNESSES Strength will be a factor for Lively early. His overall core strength could be improved. This will come with time as he gets older, but he’ll need to fight through that adversity early. Also, while I think his overall ball screen defense is solid enough, I do think his change of direction skill is not necessarily all that great. He has high hips, so it can be hard for him to turn different ways. Does have a frame that he should grow into well as he gets older to add the strength necessary for his rim protection to hit its potential. He’s an extremely limited player on offense. Doesn’t have any ability off the bounce at this stage of his development. Can’t create his own shot in any way. Will need everything created for him. Does open some driving lanes with his willingness to consistently rim run, which helps. And he finishes when a shot around the rim is created for him. But I don’t think I even feel comfortable with him dribbling the ball right now around any sort of traffic. Will need to really work on his ball control to become valuable as a dribble-handoff threat. Don’t feel great about him as a short-roll outlet player who can dribble and maintain the advantage for offenses in a four-on-three situation while defenses recover. Hasn’t showcased the ability to catch in the 15-foot-area, dribble once or twice and finish. Doesn’t turn the ball over but does end up kicking it back out to restart the offense regularly. Needs to become way more comfortable with the ball to not be a liability when he’s not involved in the primary action. Only averaged five points and one assist this past season. I don’t really love the mechanics on Lively’s shot. This has long been an area that gave Lively more upside than that typical rimrunning five, but it hasn’t quite materialized to this point. Hasn’t ever made them at a high percentage despite a willingness to take them. Has a multi-motion jumper that sometimes includes a pull back toward his forehead after getting the ball into his shooting pocket. Doesn’t have a consistent release point. Sometimes he releases the ball too early; other times, he releases it too late while he’s on the way down. Made just two of his 13 3-point attempts this past season. With Team Final in 2021, he made just 31 percent from 3. There’s a chance he develops into a player who can hit a trailer 3 from the top of the key or corner catch-andshoot 3s, but it’s going to take a lot of work. It’s a legitimate area of potential growth. Lively will have some mechanical flaws to work on defensively. In space, he is good in screens but not awesome when scrambling around after the initial screen defensive action. Think he is prone to being driven and attacked when he has to close back out to shooters who pick-and-pop him (or when he’s scrambling in help). Comes out onto shooters a bit high. Additionally, as a rim protector, it would be impossible to ignore his fouling. It improved throughout the season, but Lively had issues staying on the court. Averaged 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. If you go into Lively’s body as a driver, he tends to bring his arms forward more often than he should. SUMMARY
Lively has an immense number of tools that should make him an impactful NBA player. He’ll have elite size and length among centers. He moves well enough to be versatile defensively in different coverages. And his rim protection should be legitimate. He has strong anticipation around the basket, and he has strong timing for going up to swat shots. He’s just very limited on offense, and it’ll be incumbent upon him to work through that. Even more than the jumper, where Lively needs to improve is with his overall comfort making passing reads. If the jumper comes along, great. There is some real potential for that to happen, and if it does, he’ll be exceptionally valuable. But more than that, Lively needs to become a more fluid player and quicker processor of the game on that end of the court. But he’s such a strong defensive prospect with such good defensive tape late in the season that I think he’s worth a top-20 pick, and I have a lottery grade on him due to his upside on that end. If the offense comes along at all, he has a chance to be a top-10 center in the league. Even if it doesn’t, I buy him as a starter just through the defense and rim running. To me, that’s worth a lottery pick.
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