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2023 DRAFT: Mavs take Lively, OMP, sign Mike Miles to 2-way, sign Jordan Walker
(06-13-2023, 07:10 AM)hakeemfaan Wrote: I agree with what others are saying. Lively absolutely fits a need here but at 10 you have to go for more skill.

I also feel that while defense is needed, if you get a truly skilled offensive wing you have to strongly consider that. You can never have enough skilled scorers in the current NBA.

It is a really interesting debate.   I think in a few years, we may look back and wonder why in the heck did we not take him at 10, but it will take some time.   I can already tell you he will need to be subbed out if we played Jokic.   He would get destroyed.  That is not a knock on Lively either.

A slight trade down to 12-14 and draft Lively would be intriguing though.  Mavs would need to like several players though if they traded down though.    Right now, I don't think he would be one of my top 3-4 choices if we stayed at 10.
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Something I’ve been keeping track of is Lively now has the 3rd best odds on DraftKings (+400) to be the 10th pick behind Hendricks (+250) and Dick (+300). Lively opened at +1400, moved to +1000 a few weeks ago and this recent jump is within the last day. Hendricks and Dick have remained 1 and 2 in odds since it opened. Fun to monitor as we get closer to draft day.
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Interesting undrafted guy who the mavs brought in for a workout. Never heard of him. Older at 24 and his shot looks rough. The rest of his game looks pretty good though. His shot will probably determine if he is good enough for a two way slot.

https://youtu.be/FnGZJpskJ7o
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(06-13-2023, 03:18 PM)PositiveLegs Wrote: Something I’ve been keeping track of is Lively now has the 3rd best odds on DraftKings (+400) to be the 10th pick behind Hendricks (+250) and Dick (+300). Lively opened at +1400, moved to +1000 a few weeks ago and this recent jump is within the last day. Hendricks and Dick have remained 1 and 2 in odds since it opened. Fun to monitor as we get closer to draft day.

Out of those 3, Dick has to be the strongest one there (these Dick innuendos will never get old). 

I really do think Dick will end up being a solid role player, if not a Bane level player. Hendricks is my 2nd fav. Lively I'm totally out on. 

Need to watch more tape before I can definitively say, but that's where I'm leaning.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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FINAL BIG BOARD

This is an approach on the 2023 draft with Dallas' side, with fit and potential being the main criteria.

Tier I: Superstar. Potential 1st/2nd best player on our championship team.

1) V. Wembanyama

Tier II: All-Star. Potential 2nd/3rd best player on our championship team.

2) C. Whitmore
3) S. Henderson
4) B. Miller

Tier III: Starters. Potential 3rd/4th/5th best player on our championship team.

5) J. Walker
6) T. Hendricks
7) A. Black
8) K. Bufkin
9) C. Wallace
10) Au. Thompson
11) K. George
12) J. Hawkins
13) Am. Thompson
14) G. Dick
15) J. Hood-Schifino
16) B. Coulibaly

Tier IV: Role Players. Potential 5th/6th/7th best player on our championship team.

17) D. Lively
18) G.G Jackson
19) L. Miller
20) S. Cissoko
21) M. Lewis
22) N. Smith Jr.
23) K. Murray
24) D. Whitehead
25) B. Sensabaugh
We just paid a whole lot of money to a guy that went 9-29 (31%) on FG and 3-20 (15%) 3-pt% in both our win or go home elimination games last couple of playoffs. SMH 
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Sam Veceinie from the Athletic released his draft guide this morning.

final rankings:
6) Jarace Walker
7) Taylor Hendricks
8)Anthony Black
9) Ausar Thompson
10) Dereck Lively
11) Kobe Bufkin
12) Bilal Coulibaly
13) Leonard Miller
14) Cason Wallace
15) Jalen Hood-Schifinio
16) Gradey Dick
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Here is his Lively breakdown.  May be hard to read.

BACKGROUND Parents are Dereck and Kathy Drysdale. Kathy played for Penn State from 1988 to 1992 and became a 1,000-point scorer on some of the best teams in school history, including the first to be ranked No. 1 in the country. She has been working on the business side in sports for years, first for the 76ers and now for Penn State in marketing. Dereck Sr. passed away when Dereck was young, and Kathy battled cancer. Lively emerged as a terrific prospect early, being seen as a strong four-star prospect by the end of his sophomore season. However, it was the summer after his junior season when Lively truly became one of the elite prospects in his class. He led Team Final to the Nike EYBL Peach Jam championship that summer by dominating the paint, blocking four shots per game and playing exceptionally hard every single game. Skyrocketed to the top of the consensus recruiting rankings following that showing and stayed near the top throughout his senior year. Averaged 14 points, 14 rebounds and nearly five blocks as a senior at Westtown High School and was named the Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year in 2022. He was named to the McDonald’s All-American roster as well as to the Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic. Recruiting services considered him a consensus top-five recruit in the country, and he committed to Duke before his senior season over Penn State and Michigan. The season didn’t start out perfectly for Lively, as he started with a preseason calf injury that held him out of valuable time to get acclimated to his team. It took him a while to get going. But once he did, he soared. Lively earned All-Defense honors in the ACC and made the All-Freshman team. By the end of the year, was arguably the best defensive player in the country. Helped Duke go on an awesome late season run, including an incredibly dominant first round NCAA Tournament victory against Oral Roberts that he spearheaded on defense. Lost in the second round to Tennessee. Decided to declare for the 2023 NBA Draft after the season. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. Had a particularly standout pre-draft process, including a pro day that left scouts extremely interested with him.

STRENGTHS It all starts with the size, which is immense even by NBA center standards. Lively is in the 7-foot-1 ballpark with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, which will be among the longest in the league. We didn’t get combine measurements to confirm that, but he looks giant out there. Has strong mobility and good lateral agility for his size. Solid explosiveness as a leaper. Not wildly impressive but enough to take full advantage of his length when high-pointing the basketball as a rebounder and rim runner. Beyond that, plays with a high-end motor. Works hard constantly. Never have to worry about him not trying to contest a shot or running the floor as hard as he can to open lanes for his teammates. The length comes into play best on the defensive end. By the end of the season, Lively was the best rim protector in college basketball and probably the most impactful overall defensive force. Over his last 18 games, he averaged three blocks in just 25 minutes per game. He completely shut down the paint to obscene levels for the Blue Devils. Per Pivot Analysis, when Lively was on the court in ACC play, the team was 8.2 points per 100 possessions better on defense than when he was off the court. The Blue Devils won Lively minutes by nearly 12 points per 100 possessions versus by only 3.3 points when he was off the court. From Jan. 28 onward, Duke won its minutes with Lively by nearly 18 points per 100 possessions, and its possessions with Lively, Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor by 22 points per 100 possessions. They were dominant in those situations. Opponents only shot 45.6 percent at the rim with Lively on the court in those situations versus 54.2 percent when he was off the court. Lively uses his length well around the rim. Extends his arms high. Has some mechanical flaws we’ll talk about below, but he contests almost everything if he’s within the area of the rim. Good as a help-side player. Has solid instincts and anticipation. Does a good job of knowing where he needs to be and how he needs to rotate. Also good in ball screens. Mobile and versatile in coverages. Duke played hedging schemes, flatter at the level schemes and drop schemes with Lively this past season, and he was solid across the board in space with some issues we’ll get to. Knows how to play the gap between the roller and the guard just by playing as big as possible in drop coverage. It’s genuinely hard to find teenagers this versatile in these settings, and Lively ticks all the boxes. Does a good job of walling up both ballhandlers and post players. Can get moved on the block but generally does a good job of staying in front and contesting. Offensively, he’s a superb lob threat every single time down the court. Runs the court out in transition to beat his man to the basket. Really good over large spaces. Has good hands when the ball is above his chest. Catches the ball and dunks fluidly on lobs with ease. Also has immense upside as a rim runner out of ball screens. Duke didn’t utilize him this way until the back half of the season, but he was useful once Proctor got acclimated to college hoops as a ball screen distributor. Having said that, right now, Lively is a bit better out of the dunker spot. Largely a two-foot leaper. Good at high pointing the ball on lobs and finishes at a high percentage. Being in the dunker spot also allows him to impact the offensive glass. He’s energetic and attacks the glass with his length well. He doesn’t quit on the ball. Averaged over two rebounds on the offensive end in 20 minutes per game. WEAKNESSES Strength will be a factor for Lively early. His overall core strength could be improved. This will come with time as he gets  older, but he’ll need to fight through that adversity early. Also, while I think his overall ball screen defense is solid enough, I  do think his change of direction skill is not necessarily all that great. He has high hips, so it can be hard for him to turn different ways. Does have a frame that he should grow into well as he gets older to add the strength necessary for his rim protection to  hit its potential. He’s an extremely limited player on offense. Doesn’t have any ability off the bounce at this stage of his development. Can’t create his own shot in any way. Will need everything created for him. Does open some driving lanes with his willingness to consistently rim run, which helps. And he finishes when a shot around the rim is created for him. But I don’t think I even feel comfortable with him dribbling the ball right now around any sort of traffic. Will need to really work on his ball control to become valuable as a dribble-handoff threat. Don’t feel great about him as a short-roll outlet player who can dribble and maintain the advantage for offenses in a four-on-three situation while defenses recover. Hasn’t showcased the ability to catch in the 15-foot-area, dribble once or twice and finish. Doesn’t turn the ball over but does end up kicking it back out to restart the offense regularly. Needs to become way more comfortable with the ball to not be a liability when he’s not involved in the primary action. Only averaged five points and one assist this past season. I don’t really love the mechanics on Lively’s shot. This has long been an area that gave Lively more upside than that typical rimrunning five, but it hasn’t quite materialized to this point. Hasn’t ever made them at a high percentage despite a willingness to take them. Has a multi-motion jumper that sometimes includes a pull back toward his forehead after getting the ball into his shooting pocket. Doesn’t have a consistent release point. Sometimes he releases the ball too early; other times, he releases it too late while he’s on the way down. Made just two of his 13 3-point attempts this past season. With Team Final in 2021, he made just 31 percent from 3. There’s a chance he develops into a player who can hit a trailer 3 from the top of the key or corner catch-andshoot 3s, but it’s going to take a lot of work. It’s a legitimate area of potential growth. Lively will have some mechanical flaws to work on defensively. In space, he is good in screens but not awesome when scrambling around after the initial screen defensive action. Think he is prone to being driven and attacked when he has to close back out to shooters who pick-and-pop him (or when he’s scrambling in help). Comes out onto shooters a bit high. Additionally, as a rim protector, it would be impossible to ignore his fouling. It improved throughout the season, but Lively had issues staying on the court. Averaged 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. If you go into Lively’s body as a driver, he tends to bring his arms forward more often than he should. SUMMARY

Lively has an immense number of tools that should make him an impactful NBA player. He’ll have elite size and length among centers. He moves well enough to be versatile defensively in different coverages. And his rim protection should be legitimate. He has strong anticipation around the basket, and he has strong timing for going up to swat shots. He’s just very limited on offense, and it’ll be incumbent upon him to work through that. Even more than the jumper, where Lively needs to improve is with his overall comfort making passing reads. If the jumper comes along, great. There is some real potential for that to happen, and if it does, he’ll be exceptionally valuable. But more than that, Lively needs to become a more fluid player and quicker processor of the game on that end of the court. But he’s such a strong defensive prospect with such good defensive tape late in the season that I think he’s worth a top-20 pick, and I have a lottery grade on him due to his upside on that end. If the offense comes along at all, he has a chance to be a top-10 center in the league. Even if it doesn’t, I buy him as a starter just through the defense and rim running. To me, that’s worth a lottery pick.
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Summaries:

Walker

Walker is a fascinating player. It’s easy to imagine his role as a havoc-inducing defensive four who blocks shots on the weak side and plays switchable defense. That especially all comes together in an interesting package of skills if Walker becomes a consistent shooter, given his playmaking ability as a passer. But if the shooting isn’t there, it does become a bit trickier to make him work as a four given that he’s also not all that impactful as a half-court driver and finisher right now. He might end up being more of a small-ball, switchy big man, which is relatively OK, but it probably does limit his upside a touch given that he’s not elite at finishing possessions as a rebounder, and he isn’t quite as elite as a primary rim protector. There are a few more tweener risks with Walker than what I think has been displayed. Still, if it works, and Walker becomes capable as a switchable four who can hit shots, his upside as a winning player is enormous due to how he processes the game so quickly as a passer. I don’t see Walker as an All-Star, but he might be someone who helps a winning team in a big way, just as he did with Houston.

Hendricks

I love Hendricks going to a team that is well-situated in terms of shot creation and thus could allow him to come along more slowly in that respect. He’s a ways off from being able to impact the game as a ballhandler or creator, but Hendricks possesses the kind of 3-and-D game that could be a real difference-maker to teams that need those skills. And almost every team with an established hierarchy of stars needs those skills. Hendricks is 6-foot-9 in shoes, he’s long and switchable, and he defends the rim well from the weak side. He has potential to be an awesome pick-and-roll defender due to his versatility, and his length will take up a larger portion of the court than the normal run-of-the-mill wing prospect. The number of players 6-foot-9 or taller who enter the league as plus defenders and plus shooters is extremely minimal. It’s Jabari Smith Jr., Franz Wagner, Trey Murphy III and Jaren Jackson Jr. since 2018. That’s why Hendricks is going to hear his name called in the lottery. It’s hard to see how this skill set fails, even with his faults. He does the three most important things a role player in the NBA can do: He shoots it well off the catch, he defends well in space and he plays well within help defensive concepts. Throw in that he’s still a teenager with real upside, and you shouldn’t be surprised if he hears his name called in the top 10.

Black
Black is the kind of player I tend to love and sometimes tend to overrate. I love bigger guards who have real athleticism and can process the game well when playing at full speed. These types of players who can clearly think about the game at an exceptionally high level tend to be able to figure it out when it comes down to it. That’s my bet on Black. I think he’ll figure it out. He has a fast brain, and he is athletic enough to make things happen out on the court. He must be able to at least continue to show growth as a shooter, though. There have been enough flashes with him off the catch to where I think he has potential to make it work. And if that skill translates, he should be able to really make an impact as the kind of big secondary initiator and creator whom every team is looking for next to a high-end perimeter star. A bet on him shooting is worth a mid-lottery pick to me, because if the shooting translates, he’s going to be a very impactful player. And he’ll be the kind of player who might impact winning at the highest levels of the league.

Ausar Thompson
In my opinion, the shooting question is much more important for Ausar than it is for Amen. Because Ausar figures to be playing off the ball much more often, he’ll be asked to space the floor and not allow his man to sag off him and shrink the floor in a significant way. If he can’t shoot, there’s a chance it’s hard for him to start in the NBA. That’s why his floor is a bit lower than Amen’s, in my view. Having said that, if he does shoot it – and again, both twins are extremely high-level workers – the ceiling for Ausar is extremely high. It would open his game entirely on offense because it would allow him to be that secondary creator who plays out of ball screens on the second side but also can attack off the catch off kickouts to continue to bend defenses. His driving game would open because he’d be able to attack more often in straight lines. His passing is terrific for a secondary creator at 6-foot-7. His defense has real upside that is probably just below All-Defense caliber. All that leads to a legitimate AllStar ceiling. The player he most reminds me of is Andre Iguodala right now. It’s all going to come down to how much you trust the human beings involved and how confident you feel in how the ball comes out of his hands even if the mechanics are a work in progress. If you’re a believer, you might have Ausar as high as No. 4 on your board. If you’re not, it’s reasonable to have him somewhere more in the middle of the first round. I’m much more on the believer side because I believe in him to figure out an answer on the jumper. But there is some risk.

Coulibaly

Coulibaly is one of the most interesting mixes of immense upside and raw, unrefined polish to enter the NBA Draft in a long time. There are so many pieces of Coulibaly’s game that make you want to buy in. His athletic tools are incredible and are exactly what every single team across the league is looking for. He plays hard and plays unselfishly. In open spaces, it’s clear that if he can tighten up his handle, his downhill speed and potential is real. He is willing to understand his role and play with a high motor, doing whatever it takes to get on the floor and help the team. Defensively, it’s not an exaggeration to say that his physical gifts give him genuine upside to become an All-Defense player. His jump shot is far from broken. He clearly has natural touch. But he also doesn’t do enough on the court right now either. He’s an incredibly low-volume offensive player. His handle is going to really take some time to develop for it to be functional in the NBA. His jumper, while far from broken, is probably a multiyear project in terms of getting him confident enough from NBA range at the speed that will be necessary for him to get it off at volume. And even on defense, he’s still kind of a step slow when he’s away from the ball. His role is so limited because it’s hard to gauge what his NBA floor is, even with the knowledge that he dominated the youth level there. I don’t think there is a prospect in this draft with a wider gap between what his floor and his ceiling is. He has all the tools to be an All-Star, and we all want to buy into players reaching their fullest potential. But because he is such a late bloomer physically and is just starting down this road, I’m not sure we have enough evidence on how strong his feel for the game is or what his overall potential is as a creator. Coulibaly is the epitome of a player where you will see what you want to see. If you want to see the best in prospects and value the best flashes, you’re going to love him. If you nitpick players’ weaknesses, he has a lot of them, and you’re probably going to be less interested. What I’m most worried about is a team drafting him and not willing to be patient and ride out what will undeniably be a long-term project. If a team is willing to go slow like Metropolitans did this year and give him a couple of years to figure things out, the return could be immense. But if they try to rush things or get impatient, Coulibaly might get lost given how much of his skill and feel-based parts of the game he still must develop. Your guess is as good as mine on where Coulibaly’s career ends. But he’s undeniably worth making an informed bet on with a top-20 pick to find out, and I wouldn’t begrudge anyone taking him late in the lottery.
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New ESPN mock just dropped from Givony and Woo. Mavs related items to note:

Had Lively at 10 (Hendricks went 9) mentioned the obvious that the pick is available. Said that Lively also has interest at 11, 12, and 15 so trade down scenarios for him looking less and less likely. Had Cason Wallace (my personal fave) going 15 but mentioned his draft range starts with Washington at 8 but also mentioned Utah and Dallas specifically.

Also of note, in Detroit’s write up at the end mentioned the possibility of of #31 and Bojan for THJ and #10…
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(06-14-2023, 08:27 AM)PositiveLegs Wrote: New ESPN mock just dropped from Givony and Woo. Mavs related items to note:

Had Lively at 10 (Hendricks went 9) mentioned the obvious that the pick is available. Said that Lively also has interest at 11, 12, and 15 so trade down scenarios for him looking less and less likely. Had Cason Wallace (my personal fave) going 15 but mentioned his draft range starts with Washington at 8 but also mentioned Utah and Dallas specifically.

Also of note, in Detroit’s write up at the end mentioned the possibility of of #31 and Bojan for THJ and #10…

Thanks for posting.  I would hate that trade with Detroit.  Trading #10 for a 34 year old would be disastrous.    Bojan is really good.    But at his age with one year left until free agency, it just seems reckless.  If the Mavs were able to find a center and PF, I may consider a 27 first and Hardaway for Bojan.  But the age is just hard to overlook.   I also don't think the Pistons would move him for that package either as they are looking to win more games sooner than later.
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(06-04-2023, 08:34 PM)Dirknows Wrote: Seen a few mocks where Walker makes it to 10. I'll be a little pissed if they were to pass on him at 10, though I doubt they would as that would mean players were taken higher than expected.

(06-14-2023, 08:27 AM)PositiveLegs Wrote: New ESPN mock just dropped from Givony and Woo. Mavs related items to note:

Had Lively at 10 (Hendricks went 9) mentioned the obvious that the pick is available. Said that Lively also has interest at 11, 12, and 15 so trade down scenarios for him looking less and less likely. Had Cason Wallace (my personal fave) going 15 but mentioned his draft range starts with Washington at 8 but also mentioned Utah and Dallas specifically.

Also of note, in Detroit’s write up at the end mentioned the possibility of of #31 and Bojan for THJ and #10…

Trading 10 for Bojan would be a disaster.  If the Mavs are thinking on those lines they would be better off just taking Gradey Dick.  

His game resembles Bojan's and his age would allow him to grow with Luka.

Givony and Woo saying the Mavs would look at that type of trade let's me know they have no idea what they are talking about in regards to the Mavs thinking.
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(06-14-2023, 08:27 AM)PositiveLegs Wrote: New ESPN mock just dropped from Givony and Woo. Mavs related items to note:

Had Lively at 10 (Hendricks went 9) mentioned the obvious that the pick is available. Said that Lively also has interest at 11, 12, and 15 so trade down scenarios for him looking less and less likely. Had Cason Wallace (my personal fave) going 15 but mentioned his draft range starts with Washington at 8 but also mentioned Utah and Dallas specifically.

Also of note, in Detroit’s write up at the end mentioned the possibility of of #31 and Bojan for THJ and #10…

Doesn't help the Mavs defense, which is the #1 priority.

(06-14-2023, 07:57 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: Summaries:

Walker

Walker is a fascinating player. It’s easy to imagine his role as a havoc-inducing defensive four who blocks shots on the weak side and plays switchable defense. That especially all comes together in an interesting package of skills if Walker becomes a consistent shooter, given his playmaking ability as a passer. But if the shooting isn’t there, it does become a bit trickier to make him work as a four given that he’s also not all that impactful as a half-court driver and finisher right now. He might end up being more of a small-ball, switchy big man, which is relatively OK, but it probably does limit his upside a touch given that he’s not elite at finishing possessions as a rebounder, and he isn’t quite as elite as a primary rim protector. There are a few more tweener risks with Walker than what I think has been displayed. Still, if it works, and Walker becomes capable as a switchable four who can hit shots, his upside as a winning player is enormous due to how he processes the game so quickly as a passer. I don’t see Walker as an All-Star, but he might be someone who helps a winning team in a big way, just as he did with Houston.

Hendricks

I love Hendricks going to a team that is well-situated in terms of shot creation and thus could allow him to come along more slowly in that respect. He’s a ways off from being able to impact the game as a ballhandler or creator, but Hendricks possesses the kind of 3-and-D game that could be a real difference-maker to teams that need those skills. And almost every team with an established hierarchy of stars needs those skills. Hendricks is 6-foot-9 in shoes, he’s long and switchable, and he defends the rim well from the weak side. He has potential to be an awesome pick-and-roll defender due to his versatility, and his length will take up a larger portion of the court than the normal run-of-the-mill wing prospect. The number of players 6-foot-9 or taller who enter the league as plus defenders and plus shooters is extremely minimal. It’s Jabari Smith Jr., Franz Wagner, Trey Murphy III and Jaren Jackson Jr. since 2018. That’s why Hendricks is going to hear his name called in the lottery. It’s hard to see how this skill set fails, even with his faults. He does the three most important things a role player in the NBA can do: He shoots it well off the catch, he defends well in space and he plays well within help defensive concepts. Throw in that he’s still a teenager with real upside, and you shouldn’t be surprised if he hears his name called in the top 10.

Black
Black is the kind of player I tend to love and sometimes tend to overrate. I love bigger guards who have real athleticism and can process the game well when playing at full speed. These types of players who can clearly think about the game at an exceptionally high level tend to be able to figure it out when it comes down to it. That’s my bet on Black. I think he’ll figure it out. He has a fast brain, and he is athletic enough to make things happen out on the court. He must be able to at least continue to show growth as a shooter, though. There have been enough flashes with him off the catch to where I think he has potential to make it work. And if that skill translates, he should be able to really make an impact as the kind of big secondary initiator and creator whom every team is looking for next to a high-end perimeter star. A bet on him shooting is worth a mid-lottery pick to me, because if the shooting translates, he’s going to be a very impactful player. And he’ll be the kind of player who might impact winning at the highest levels of the league.

Ausar Thompson
In my opinion, the shooting question is much more important for Ausar than it is for Amen. Because Ausar figures to be playing off the ball much more often, he’ll be asked to space the floor and not allow his man to sag off him and shrink the floor in a significant way. If he can’t shoot, there’s a chance it’s hard for him to start in the NBA. That’s why his floor is a bit lower than Amen’s, in my view. Having said that, if he does shoot it – and again, both twins are extremely high-level workers – the ceiling for Ausar is extremely high. It would open his game entirely on offense because it would allow him to be that secondary creator who plays out of ball screens on the second side but also can attack off the catch off kickouts to continue to bend defenses. His driving game would open because he’d be able to attack more often in straight lines. His passing is terrific for a secondary creator at 6-foot-7. His defense has real upside that is probably just below All-Defense caliber. All that leads to a legitimate AllStar ceiling. The player he most reminds me of is Andre Iguodala right now. It’s all going to come down to how much you trust the human beings involved and how confident you feel in how the ball comes out of his hands even if the mechanics are a work in progress. If you’re a believer, you might have Ausar as high as No. 4 on your board. If you’re not, it’s reasonable to have him somewhere more in the middle of the first round. I’m much more on the believer side because I believe in him to figure out an answer on the jumper. But there is some risk.

Coulibaly

Coulibaly is one of the most interesting mixes of immense upside and raw, unrefined polish to enter the NBA Draft in a long time. There are so many pieces of Coulibaly’s game that make you want to buy in. His athletic tools are incredible and are exactly what every single team across the league is looking for. He plays hard and plays unselfishly. In open spaces, it’s clear that if he can tighten up his handle, his downhill speed and potential is real. He is willing to understand his role and play with a high motor, doing whatever it takes to get on the floor and help the team. Defensively, it’s not an exaggeration to say that his physical gifts give him genuine upside to become an All-Defense player. His jump shot is far from broken. He clearly has natural touch. But he also doesn’t do enough on the court right now either. He’s an incredibly low-volume offensive player. His handle is going to really take some time to develop for it to be functional in the NBA. His jumper, while far from broken, is probably a multiyear project in terms of getting him confident enough from NBA range at the speed that will be necessary for him to get it off at volume. And even on defense, he’s still kind of a step slow when he’s away from the ball. His role is so limited because it’s hard to gauge what his NBA floor is, even with the knowledge that he dominated the youth level there.  I don’t think there is a prospect in this draft with a wider gap between what his floor and his ceiling is. He has all the tools to be an All-Star, and we all want to buy into players reaching their fullest potential. But because he is such a late bloomer physically and is just starting down this road, I’m not sure we have enough evidence on how strong his feel for the game is or what his overall potential is as a creator. Coulibaly is the epitome of a player where you will see what you want to see. If you want to see the best in prospects and value the best flashes, you’re going to love him. If you nitpick players’ weaknesses, he has a lot of them, and you’re probably going to be less interested. What I’m most worried about is a team drafting him and not willing to be patient and ride out what will undeniably be a long-term project. If a team is willing to go slow like Metropolitans did this year and give him a couple of years to figure things out, the return could be immense. But if they try to rush things or get impatient, Coulibaly might get lost given how much of his skill and feel-based parts of the game he still must develop. Your guess is as good as mine on where Coulibaly’s career ends. But he’s undeniably worth making an informed bet on with a top-20 pick to find out, and I wouldn’t begrudge anyone taking him late in the lottery.
Reading this analysis makes me think either Hendricks or Lively,#10 pick.  Both seem like plug-n-play defensive players, who could contribute relatively quickly.
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(06-14-2023, 08:27 AM)PositiveLegs Wrote: Also of note, in Detroit’s write up at the end mentioned the possibility of of #31 and Bojan for THJ and #10…

Terrible trade for the Mavs.

I've mentioned this before, the Pistons are making a PF out of Stewart as Detroit has too many Cs.
Now Stewart can shoot and can play some PF, but his natural position is at center.
At PF, there's Livers and Bagley. Not sure how Detroit values these two as both are averaging almost identical minutes.

Is Stewart worth pick 10?
I don't think he is.

But there's a few trades out there that can be done with the Pistons.

1. Stewart+Burks+31 for Bertans+10
2. Stewart+Bogi+31 for Bertans+McGee+10
2. Stewart+Bogi+Hayes+31 for THJ+McGee+10
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Ya, Bojan is better than THJ, but not even a FRP better. Couple SRPs at best.
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Unless the center is a generational talent like Wembanyama, it´s a waste of a lottery pick imho. There are plenty of quality centers available. Only in the Dallas region they are an endangered species. None have been seen for the last decade. But that doesn´t mean they don`t exist in abundance.
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(06-14-2023, 12:14 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Unless the center is a generational talent like Wembanyama, it´s a waste of a lottery pick imho. There are plenty of quality centers available. Only in the Dallas region they are an endangered species. None have been seen for the last decade. But that doesn´t mean they don`t exist in abundance.
My hope is OKC wants him bad enough to pay a FRP to Utah to move up. Then we for sure get someone who drops in the top 9. I think at that point Nico’s phone blows up and there is a short feeding frenzy for the pick. He then has a big decision to make, keep or trade.
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(06-14-2023, 11:46 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Ya, Bojan is better than THJ, but not even a FRP better. Couple SRPs at best.


He's just so old. Turns 35 the end of next season. Would be such a waste of a valuable pick
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(06-14-2023, 02:33 PM)Jym Wrote: He's just so old. Turns 35 the end of next season. Would be such a waste of a valuable pick

I just don't think Dallas has the right assets or right team to make that trade now.  Plus, I think Detroit needs to start winning.

But this trade deadline???   I could see a scenario where Bojan tells Detroit he likes being in Detroit but will prioritize playing for a contender when his contract ends next season.   So maybe then you can do a Bertans and future first for him so Detroit captures some value for him.   This would be based on that Dallas has filled their center and PF holes this offseason, and still had assets available for this type of trade.
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(06-14-2023, 02:38 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: I just don't think Dallas has the right assets or right team to make that trade now.  Plus, I think Detroit needs to start winning.

But this trade deadline???   I could see a scenario where Bojan tells Detroit he likes being in Detroit but will prioritize playing for a contender when his contract ends next season.   So maybe then you can do a Bertans and future first for him so Detroit captures some value for him.   This would be based on that Dallas has filled their center and PF holes this offseason, and still had assets available for this type of trade.

No future first for Bojan.  Next season, Bertans becomes a positive trade asset.  No need to attach anything.
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(06-14-2023, 02:47 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: No future first for Bojan.  Next season, Bertans becomes a positive trade asset.  No need to attach anything.

I don't think he is ever going to be viewed as a positive asset.  I think this trade deadline or next offseason, he will be viewed as a neutral salary filler imo.    So including him with a future first will get you a better player in a best case scenario.   You are probably looking at a player comparable to Bojan.  Hopefully younger though.  But the better the player, the higher interest around the league and Mavs lack the assets if the pick hoarder teams get involved.    Mavs next available pick being 2-3 years out could be viewed as a negative or a positive depending on the team.
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