GAME 6: ORL (1-6) @ DAL (3-3) | 114-105 win

[Mavs03]

Please end the Javale McGee experiment as a starting center.  I don't know how much evidence Kidd needs.  Surely, we have an analytics department or someone with decent vision.

[BoredAssistant]

After this season, Cuban could s/w McGee's 12 mil and it wouldn't hurt that bad at all . . . at least to me personally.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Please end the Javale McGee experiment as a starting center.  I don't know how much evidence Kidd needs.  Surely, we have an analytics department or someone with decent vision.

Kidd will try to make it work.
He possibly recruited McGee, got him the money, promised a starting spot.
He will try his best to make him look good.

Even at the expense of making Wood look bad.

[Mavs03]

Kidd will try to make it work.
He possibly recruited McGee, got him the money, promised a starting spot.
He will try his best to make him look good.

Even at the expense of making Wood look bad.

If Kidd recruited McGee, that's embarrassing.  Did McGee do anything in the Phoenix series to warrant a 3 year 20 million contract?  Who cares if he promised him a starting spot?  McGee got his money.  Congratulations.  Let's go on a winning streak with McGee sitting his ass on the bench.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

If Kidd recruited McGee, that's embarrassing.

I am leaning heavily that he did.
Just like the Sterling Brown signing -- this is Kidd playing GM.

[Kammrath]

I am leaning heavily that he did.
Just like the Sterling Brown signing -- this is Kidd playing GM.

Totally feels that way.

[Chicagojk]

I am glad I recorded that game and saw the score before watching.  Otherwise, that would have been a frustrating watch after last night.   I might need to start doing that early in the season.

I agree as good as Luka has been it can't be sustainable.   Although we have seen some good non Luka minutes the last few games.  The pace is faster, the ball movement is good and the energy is good with that group.   It would be great if we could see a similar production this year with our bench as we saw last year.   We just need more from the starting lineup.

The body language on McGee is awful.   No urgency from him.    I don't know how you can continue to start him if you need to pull him 3-4 minutes into a game.   

Looking big picture, I am not crazy on what I have seen from the Mavs yet.  On the other hand a lot of teams are looking very beatable on certain nights.    So maybe we all got to take a deep breath and hope they come together like they did last year.   At the moment it is tough to imagine we have enough though.

[Chicagojk]

I am glad I recorded that game and saw the score before watching.  Otherwise, that would have been a frustrating watch after last night.   I might need to start doing that early in the season.

I agree as good as Luka has been it can't be sustainable.   Although we have seen some good non Luka minutes the last few games.  The pace is faster, the ball movement is good and the energy is good with that group.   It would be great if we could see a similar production this year with our bench as we saw last year.   We just need more from the starting lineup.

The body language on McGee is awful.   No urgency from him.    I don't know how you can continue to start him if you need to pull him 3-4 minutes into a game.   

Looking big picture, I am not crazy on what I have seen from the Mavs yet.  On the other hand a lot of teams are looking very beatable on certain nights.    So maybe we all got to take a deep breath and hope they come together like they did last year.   At the moment it is tough to imagine we have enough though.

I thought Din was active in the third quarter when we were trading buckets.  Some nice takes at the rim.  But then I look at his stats after the game and they are not very impressive.    He needs to be aggressive playing with Luka.  Take advantage of the defense focusing on Luka and get to the rim.  

Hardaway also had a real nice stretch in the second half but his stats don't look impressive either.    I want him to be aggressive though.  Hopefully shooting at a higher percentage.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Seems like a bad sign if Luka has to drop 40 every game just for us to have a chance to win even against "bad" teams.

If only we had another guard who could reliably score 15-25 points and carry the offense in stretches.

Agreed. Luka doing everything, every night is not sustainable. Teams are purposely coming at him to get him tired at the end of games.  At least last year he had Brunson to pick up the slack. Somebody is going to have to fill that role, consistently.....

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think we can now see that the closing group is Maxi, DFS, THJ, Bullock and Luka.  Not much creation, but it isn't like anyone besides Luka is going to initiate pays in the final few minutes.

This is the role I envisioned Powell would have.  The run in the second quarter went a little longer than I think will be normal, but it was working.  Powell plus the starters went on an 11-1 run starting middle second quarter.

That much Powell meant fewer than usual Wood as solo-center minutes.  1:40 (+0) in the first quarter and 2:00 (-2) in the fourth.  We even saw about a minute of Powell/Wood overlap in the third (+0).

Josh at 17 minutes was also more in the range of what I expected prior to the season beginning.  It helped to keep DFS, Bullock and THJ all under 30 minutes.  What we don't know yet is whether that is the beginning of a trend or simply an accommodation during the second night of a B2B.

The general theory behind McGee is he would help the starters hold serve for a few minutes at the start of halves.  Then you'd get Luka and mostly bench guys the rest of the quarter, SD and mostly bench guys to start the 2nd/4th and they would dominate the bench of the other team.  Then we would end up with some kind of closing lineup.  Basically four segments.  They color code the +/- in the box score section of B-Ref so it is easy to see.  

Our four starters with McGee have a net rating of -12.4 (the O is horrible)
Our four starters with Maxi have a net rating of -32.6 (again, horrible O, but the D-rating is 132.6)
Our four starters with Wood have a net rating of -32.0 (see above)

It has only happened in two games...obviously...but our four starters with Powell are a +32.9.  I like that a a specialty lineup, but even I wouldn't run with that as our main lineup.  Still the problem remains that in a small sample size of six games, we don't have a big that is working with our starters.  The super-O combo of Wood, Dinwiddie and Hardaway isn't working unless Green is with them.  These are the things Kidd is looking for as he tinkers around the edges with his lineups.  What seems to be emerging as our closing lineup Maxi/THJ with DFS,RB and Luka is +10, but there are only 10 minutes of experience with this.  I also find it interesting that THJ/Wood and Maxi work well so far IF they are combined with Green and either of the PG's...+22 with Dinwiddie/Green and +29 with Luka/Green.

There may be some encouraging news in all of this for the folks wanting to start Wood (as long is Maxi is with him).  There are a pretty good number of lineups with Wood and Maxi that are working.  The issue is you can only do that about 24-28 minutes a game.  So, how do you man the middle when the two of them are sitting?  Yeah, you might get a few minutes (6-8) with Wood as the solo big during shift changes.  But now he's at about 30 and you've not accounted for about 18-20 minutes of play that will have to be either Powell/DFS or McGee/DFS anchoring the paint.

[ItsGoTime]

So, I don’t see why we couldn’t do like we’re doing with Luka and SD with Wood and Maxi. Maxi doesn’t get as many minutes traditionally, so if we started Wood as the solo big, then stagger each of Wood and Maxi’s minutes so at least 1 of them is on the court at all times. They would at times play with eachother and other times play solo (or with McGee/Powell if the matchup…and their play during that particular game…dictates it). 

At that point, I would love for Kidd to pull Wood if he isn’t giving the effort that is needed. THAT is how you teach and groom.

[mvossman]

I think we can now see that the closing group is Maxi, DFS, THJ, Bullock and Luka.  Not much creation, but it isn't like anyone besides Luka is going to initiate pays in the final few minutes.

This is the role I envisioned Powell would have.  The run in the second quarter went a little longer than I think will be normal, but it was working.  Powell plus the starters went on an 11-1 run starting middle second quarter.

That much Powell meant fewer than usual Wood as solo-center minutes.  1:40 (+0) in the first quarter and 2:00 (-2) in the fourth.  We even saw about a minute of Powell/Wood overlap in the third (+0).

Josh at 17 minutes was also more in the range of what I expected prior to the season beginning.  It helped to keep DFS, Bullock and THJ all under 30 minutes.  What we don't know yet is whether that is the beginning of a trend or simply an accommodation during the second night of a B2B.

The general theory behind McGee is he would help the starters hold serve for a few minutes at the start of halves.  Then you'd get Luka and mostly bench guys the rest of the quarter, SD and mostly bench guys to start the 2nd/4th and they would dominate the bench of the other team.  Then we would end up with some kind of closing lineup.  Basically four segments.  They color code the +/- in the box score section of B-Ref so it is easy to see.  

Our four starters with McGee have a net rating of -12.4 (the O is horrible)
Our four starters with Maxi have a net rating of -32.6 (again, horrible O, but the D-rating is 132.6)
Our four starters with Wood have a net rating of -32.0 (see above)

It has only happened in two games...obviously...but our four starters with Powell are a +32.9.  I like that a a specialty lineup, but even I wouldn't run with that as our main lineup.  Still the problem remains that in a small sample size of six games, we don't have a big that is working with our starters.  The super-O combo of Wood, Dinwiddie and Hardaway isn't working unless Green is with them.  These are the things Kidd is looking for as he tinkers around the edges with his lineups.  What seems to be emerging as our closing lineup Maxi/THJ with DFS,RB and Luka is +10, but there are only 10 minutes of experience with this.  I also find it interesting that THJ/Wood and Maxi work well so far IF they are combined with Green and either of the PG's...+22 with Dinwiddie/Green and +29 with Luka/Green.

There may be some encouraging news in all of this for the folks wanting to start Wood (as long is Maxi is with him).  There are a pretty good number of lineups with Wood and Maxi that are working.  The issue is you can only do that about 24-28 minutes a game.  So, how do you man the middle when the two of them are sitting?  Yeah, you might get a few minutes (6-8) with Wood as the solo big during shift changes.  But now he's at about 30 and you've not accounted for about 18-20 minutes of play that will have to be either Powell/DFS or McGee/DFS anchoring the paint.

This where I am at (and have been for the most part).  Wood should get 24 with Maxi and at least 8 as solo big.  I thought the remainder of the big minutes would McGee, but at this point I would rather see Powell.  My preferred lineup is still Max/Wood/DFS/Bullock/Luka.  I think we should be starting and finishing with that lineup (giving Maxi breaks with Wood as single big).  Then we use McGee and Powell against second units.

[Kammrath]

Wood should get 24 with Maxi and at least 8 as solo big.

THIS. THIS. THIS.

[sefant]

I also find it interesting that THJ/Wood and Maxi work well so far IF they are combined with Green and either of the PG's...+22 with Dinwiddie/Green and +29 with Luka/Green.

nba stats.com has way higher/different numbers. hm hm?  Anyway Luka/Green already had the 2nd highest Luka combo (200 min+) last regular season behind Luka/Bullock. The lack of minutes that Green plays with Luka is a bit of a bummer so far. For how much better Green looks compared to the Green of last season. On both ends.

In general i wouldn't mind seeing him for 25-30 min on the floor, and just see what happens. People rightfully want Wood to have more minutes. Green has earned a chance as well imo. His leads the league in net rating for players that get 15 min plus. He leads the Mavs in +/-. His advanced stats are bananas. Is Green a supercharged DFS in the making, whose glue keeping things together?


Green has the best Luka net rating (+46)
Green has the best DFS net rating (+31.9)
Green has the best SD net rating (+23.9)
Green has the best Wood net rating (+28.0)
Green has the best Kleber net rating (+39.6)
Green has the best THJ net rating (+29.3)



https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?CF=MIN*G*20&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612742&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=NET_RATING




Its been just 6 games obviously, but it really begs the question if Green is already knocking on the door for a starter spot rather sooner than later. Or at least an uptick in minutes.
D-BPM and D-RAPTOR has him more or less as a top 10 defender. I know sample-size / 6 games / lack of minutes, but the advanced stats love him so far. Its similar love that the mold of NBA players like Caruso, Draymond Green, GP2, Marcus Smart have.

My secret hope before the season was Green taking Brunson spots by mid season or in the 2nd half of the season. Or that he get at least a shot at starting with Luka in the backcourt. And he is off to a better start than i thought he would. Also because DFS/Bullock have been off to a slow start on defense.


Green + Kleber are defending on a higher level than DFS/Bullock so far. And Green might been the defender thats causing the most havoc for the opp offense so far. Its of no surprise the bench had runs vs. Suns / OKC / Magic before Luka & Co checked back in.
The 10 pt lead in the 4th vs. Magic was lowkey another product of the bench. They got the seperation again. Before Luka & Co checked back in.

[dirkfansince1998]

Our four starters with McGee have a net rating of -12.4 (the O is horrible)
Our four starters with Maxi have a net rating of -32.6 (again, horrible O, but the D-rating is 132.6)
Our four starters with Wood have a net rating of -32.0 (see above)

Need to figure out who/what is tanking the defensive numbers. Among the non big starters Luka has the best on court defensive numbers right now.

Defensive on/off
Luka on court 112.8 off court 112.7
DFS  on court 118.5 off court 101
Bullock on court 116.8 off court 105
SD on court 118.1 off court 104
THJ on court 111.3 off court 113.9
Green on court 95.7 off court 120.6

Still a super small sample size but DFS having the worst defensive on/off numbers on the roster is something I wouldn´t have expected at any point of the season. He is playing most of his minutes in single big lineups. Something to watch in the coming games. Maybe asking him to guard the best opposing wing and also do a lot of heavy lifting in the paint is too much.
I never wanted McGee to begin with and would love nothing more than to never see him on the court again but I wonder if the starting five problems go beyond the center spot. Luka is doing Luka things but SD/Bullock/DFS have all been big negatives in the +/- column. Then again. As @"DanSchwartzgan" pointed out. The starters with Powell instead of McGee look a lot better.

Overall @"DanSchwartzgan" mentioned Kleber/Wood pairing as the most successful front court combination. 17.7 Net Rating (120.4 O/ 102.7 D). In a tiny sample size single big Powell is better than any other option.

And now the big and way to early question. How to adjust the rotation? As of now. Wood and Maxi should play the max amount of minutes together. I don´t see a problem with one of them playing a couple of single big minutes but overall that seems to be the best option. I wouldn´t mind to see the return of the long forgotten Maxi/Powell duo for a couple of minutes.
Assuming that Wood and Maxi get 25-30 minutes I wouldn´t mind a slight increase in minutes for Powell as long as I never have to see McGee in a Mavs jersey again.

Is it an option to reverse the rotation and start with both Maxi + Wood? Something like...

1st quarter
6 min Maxi+Wood (most likely Bullock out of the starting five)
4 min Wood
2 min Powell

2nd quarter
3 min Powell
2 min Powell + Kleber
7 min Wood + Kleber

2nd half similar but with the option to go small and play some single big minutes to close the game. A lot easier to get the max amount of Wood+Kleber minutes without running into the problems we saw in the first few games. Wood racking up 10-12 minutes of play in the late 3rd and early 4th quarter. Making it almost impossible to include him in the closing lineup. 15 minutes without a breather aren´t an option in the regular season.

[BigDirk41]

How much longer until Wood's agent demands a trade behind closed doors? Kidd is clearly tanking his value in a contract year. I expect Wood will be professional due to the situation, but he can't be happy for this. He is clearly the 2nd best player on the team and be treated like a scrub.

[DanSchwartzgan]

So, I don’t see why we couldn’t do like we’re doing with Luka and SD with Wood and Maxi. Maxi doesn’t get as many minutes traditionally, so if we started Wood as the solo big, then stagger each of Wood and Maxi’s minutes so at least 1 of them is on the court at all times. They would at times play with eachother and other times play solo (or with McGee/Powell if the matchup…and their play during that particular game…dictates it). 

Maxi tends to only play about 24 a game.  So, if you stagger with 30 minute Wood, there just isn’t enough time for much overlap.  So far, it is the overlap minutes that have worked best.

I think mvossman is probably closer.  The team has shown zero inclination to play Wood as a solo big except in very brief spurts against bench units.  The one time they tried it, Kidd told the media “see, I knew it wouldn’t work”.  I’ve thought there could be some kind of adjustment as time went on and Wood got more comfortable in our system.  That may still happen, but the early evidence just isn’t good (if we are talking about what is happening vs. what some think should happen).

Thanks to Sefant and 1998 for adding to the discussion.  I really like the idea of Maxi/Wood/DFS/Bullock (or Green) and Luka starting and getting about 24 minutes as a unit.  That leaves about 6-8 minutes of Wood as the solo-big during transitions.  If you try to map out the full rotation, you run into an issue.  You kind of have to start DFS and you kind of have to play him at PF when Powell is in and Maxi and Wood are out and when Wood is in as the solo-big.  Dorian can’t play 48 minutes and we don’t really have another PF.  Short of trading for someone like Crowder, the solution is more Powell/McGee playing with Wood.  Short of that, it is hard to start Maxi/Wood and make sense of the rest of the rotation.

One other note on the Powell numbers.  Not that I want to disrespect what he’s done the last two games, but it has come against Orlando and OKC.  I like Luka and DP running PnR against bench units.  I’m not ready to start him full time against good teams.  McGee isn’t working either and as illustrated above, it is hard to make Maxi/Wood starting a thing unless DFS goes to the bench or Powell/McGee and Maxi eat up all of the Center minutes.  The other logical possibility is Wood/DFS starting at C/PF, but as I’ve said several times, Kidd has shown zero inclination toward that.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Do you guys think Kidd doesn't trust Wood defensively is the reason he sits at the end of games?  I kinda think that is why.

[Kammrath]

Defensive on/off
Luka on court 112.8 off court 112.7
DFS  on court 118.5 off court 101
Bullock on court 116.8 off court 105
SD on court 118.1 off court 104
THJ on court 111.3 off court 113.9
Green on court 95.7 off court 120.6

Still a super small sample size but DFS having the worst defensive on/off numbers on the roster is something I wouldn´t have expected at any point of the season. He is playing most of his minutes in single big lineups. Something to watch in the coming games. Maybe asking him to guard the best opposing wing and also do a lot of heavy lifting in the paint is too much.

These numbers tell me this:

1) JG is the best perimeter defender on the Mavs so far.

2) JG off-court is the most telling: 120.6. All of SD, RB, and DFS are less than that on-court, so they are playing poorly for sure, but it is that the collective TEAM D is not working unless JG is on the court. His energy and rotations, etc., are making the team scheme work. The team scheme is failing without JG so far.

3) Luka is a problem defensively, but SD is always on the court when Luka isn't so all you are seeing there is that Luka and SD are equally the problem. Hence when you look at SD+Luka you should see a big part of the problem. I just looked and they are 118.5 DRtg together (same as SD+DFS together).

4) In 6 games there is too much noise to make judgments about SD, DFS, Luka, and RB. But so far none of them are standing out in a positive way. But my personal eye test tells me that Luka and SD are the real problems and that DFS and RB just are not good enough at this point to cover up the mess and are playing average (at best!) themselves. 

And one final point: Wood is NOT the problem on D. The numbers AND my eyes tell me this. Of course he isn't perfect, but the team continues to play solid to good D when he is playing overall.

[DanSchwartzgan]

And one final point: Wood is NOT the problem on D. The numbers AND my eyes tell me this. Of course he isn't perfect, but the team continues to play solid to good D when he is playing overall.

But, is that really the question.  There are two versions of Wood thus far.  Solo-big Wood and Wood with Maxi.  Wood with Maxi seems to work.  D-Rating is 102 in 110 minutes.  I don’t have a good way to isolate the other Wood minutes, but that is really the question that needs to be answered.  My eye-test says they aren’t good.  Kidd’s actions and comments seem to indicate we won’t be seeing much of it no matter what, but if Wood solo-big is ever to evolve into something workable we need to see it in the brief glimpses those lineups are getting.