09-06-2022, 07:38 AM
You guys making the point that they can't/won't want to trade picks seem to think that's a new idea. From my POV, it might be an OLD one, honestly. That's the way I thought the last couple of seasons, as that '23 pick being up in the air was really gumming up the works, but...now? I'm not so sure we understood the realities involved at the time, and to me, they've become quite clear:
1) If you're like me the last 3-5 trades, going back to Jrue Holiday, basically, have all been for SHOCKINGLY big hauls in terms of draft capital. Like, "WOW" numbers of picks. These prices are getting steeper, and it doesn't seem like the level of players going the opposite direction in these deals matters one bit. It's about financial relief and draft capital, period. I suppose that's good news in a sense, because the Mavs can't really offer young potential stars in any deal for a win-now type of any value. But...
2) Simply getting past the '23 pick logjam won't get the Mavs to that 5-6 pick range the next star (not even superstar) will cost. To me, they'd first have to acquire additional draft capital to include in such a trade. They quite clearly don't know how/have no interest in doing that. I'm having trouble thinking of one instance during Cuban's governorship when this was their goal.
3) There are like five teams who have amassed so much draft capital that there's no way the prices for these impact guys will go down anytime soon. Such guys don't want to go to those teams, obviously, so the deals won't actually get made, but those teams' ability to offer as much draft capital as they can will serve to keep these trade prices ridiculous.
This is kind of what happened with Durant, imho. If Gobert is worth 5 firsts (!!!) then Durant is clearly worth way more. No problem, right? You go to one of those five teams and make a separate deal to pick up a few picks, or just fold them into a 3-way, right? The problem is that teams have accumulated those picks so that THEY can get a Durant (or hopefully a younger version of him) and they have their own set of problems now because nobody remotely fitting that description wants anything to do with a tanking, vetless team. Long story short, those teams aren't interested in using their draft capital to facilitate a Durant type to a PHX-type destination. BUT, their (theoretical) ability to offer 5-7 picks for Durant themselves (never mind the fact that such a notion is a complete nonstarter) makes the team holding the Durant type feel like they'd be suckers to let him go for a lesser price. *BOOM*...trade economy ruined for all of the teams who actually matter.
4) Ok, so let's say the Mavs unload that '23 pick, get past this rule and can finally make an offer with like 3 firsts and 2 swaps. That will be next summer or the deadline after (after not really maximizing 2-3 seasons of Luka, including this coming one), right? What do we actually think they'll be able to get by then for such an offer? Hopefully, they'll be in line for the next Holiday/Murray type, but they'll still be nowhere remotely close to the best offer for the next Donovan Mitchell type, even if they completely mortgage their future (again). Let's not even discuss any player whose current fans might try to argue is on the same level as Luka - that's an animal this team will literally never be able to acquire while Luka is here (at least through trade).
5) Is a Holiday/Murray type going to be worth such an offer to the Mavs then, with all of their good players being a year and a half older than they are now? Would that player be worth such an offer to them now, if they were unshackled enough to offer it? Would that player make the Mavs a contender right now, if they could only afford him? I'm not sure.
6) I'm also not sure one Holiday/Murray is actually preferable to three Clarkson-types (but different versions who play different positions and bring different skills to the table). I feel like I could make a compelling argument that having 8-9 high quality players who all fit together in a variety of interesting ways might be noticeably preferable to acquiring one Holiday/Murray type and having to rely on 6 dudes because of it.
7) The Clarkson-level guys (or Wood-level risks) might ultimately be all the Mavs can ever pull off, regardless of what they have available. I'm using the the word "might" to cover my bases here, but I'm starting to feel this way, tbh. If that's ultimately going to be the get, why not add them now, coming off a WCF run, when the mojo level is high?
8) I feel like there's quite a bit of "meh" being expressed over both Clarkson and Conley on this board, but the reality is that they're both very good players, and either of them would make this team much better, especially given the current roster issues. To my thinking, this Utah situation has made them available, and whether we want to slow down our imaginations to realize it or not, guys like that aren't available very often. I've seen people act like they're trash because their team lost to the Mavs in the first round, which is a joke, because actually, the Utah players are part of a core that was a perennial playoff team. That's a big deal. Those players are more difficult to get than we realize around here - I'm confident of that.
I could go on, but I don't think it's going to change anyone's mind. The tl;dr conclusion is that the Mavs have something going now, and there are good players who fit available now, through unforeseen events like a playoff team being blown up. Now, I'm not dying to give up a first round pick for anyone, but this attitude that the Mavs are simply waiting for '23 to convey so they can make a "real" trade is troubling to me, because there will be some other problem they have to deal with by then, I feel pretty assured.
This team's chance to build a juggernaut dynasty ended when Giannis inked his name on his new contract in Milwaukee. There is no guarantee of another, more successful Porzingis deal in the future. In fact, I find it really unlikely that they'll have another crack at something like that during this Luka contract, the way things are going. During several summers I was preaching patience (just what people are saying now) but that was with Luka on his rookie deal. He's on his second contract now, so the reality the Mavs are facing right now is the reality they'll have for a while: How do we maximize each individual season?
1) If you're like me the last 3-5 trades, going back to Jrue Holiday, basically, have all been for SHOCKINGLY big hauls in terms of draft capital. Like, "WOW" numbers of picks. These prices are getting steeper, and it doesn't seem like the level of players going the opposite direction in these deals matters one bit. It's about financial relief and draft capital, period. I suppose that's good news in a sense, because the Mavs can't really offer young potential stars in any deal for a win-now type of any value. But...
2) Simply getting past the '23 pick logjam won't get the Mavs to that 5-6 pick range the next star (not even superstar) will cost. To me, they'd first have to acquire additional draft capital to include in such a trade. They quite clearly don't know how/have no interest in doing that. I'm having trouble thinking of one instance during Cuban's governorship when this was their goal.
3) There are like five teams who have amassed so much draft capital that there's no way the prices for these impact guys will go down anytime soon. Such guys don't want to go to those teams, obviously, so the deals won't actually get made, but those teams' ability to offer as much draft capital as they can will serve to keep these trade prices ridiculous.
This is kind of what happened with Durant, imho. If Gobert is worth 5 firsts (!!!) then Durant is clearly worth way more. No problem, right? You go to one of those five teams and make a separate deal to pick up a few picks, or just fold them into a 3-way, right? The problem is that teams have accumulated those picks so that THEY can get a Durant (or hopefully a younger version of him) and they have their own set of problems now because nobody remotely fitting that description wants anything to do with a tanking, vetless team. Long story short, those teams aren't interested in using their draft capital to facilitate a Durant type to a PHX-type destination. BUT, their (theoretical) ability to offer 5-7 picks for Durant themselves (never mind the fact that such a notion is a complete nonstarter) makes the team holding the Durant type feel like they'd be suckers to let him go for a lesser price. *BOOM*...trade economy ruined for all of the teams who actually matter.
4) Ok, so let's say the Mavs unload that '23 pick, get past this rule and can finally make an offer with like 3 firsts and 2 swaps. That will be next summer or the deadline after (after not really maximizing 2-3 seasons of Luka, including this coming one), right? What do we actually think they'll be able to get by then for such an offer? Hopefully, they'll be in line for the next Holiday/Murray type, but they'll still be nowhere remotely close to the best offer for the next Donovan Mitchell type, even if they completely mortgage their future (again). Let's not even discuss any player whose current fans might try to argue is on the same level as Luka - that's an animal this team will literally never be able to acquire while Luka is here (at least through trade).
5) Is a Holiday/Murray type going to be worth such an offer to the Mavs then, with all of their good players being a year and a half older than they are now? Would that player be worth such an offer to them now, if they were unshackled enough to offer it? Would that player make the Mavs a contender right now, if they could only afford him? I'm not sure.
6) I'm also not sure one Holiday/Murray is actually preferable to three Clarkson-types (but different versions who play different positions and bring different skills to the table). I feel like I could make a compelling argument that having 8-9 high quality players who all fit together in a variety of interesting ways might be noticeably preferable to acquiring one Holiday/Murray type and having to rely on 6 dudes because of it.
7) The Clarkson-level guys (or Wood-level risks) might ultimately be all the Mavs can ever pull off, regardless of what they have available. I'm using the the word "might" to cover my bases here, but I'm starting to feel this way, tbh. If that's ultimately going to be the get, why not add them now, coming off a WCF run, when the mojo level is high?
8) I feel like there's quite a bit of "meh" being expressed over both Clarkson and Conley on this board, but the reality is that they're both very good players, and either of them would make this team much better, especially given the current roster issues. To my thinking, this Utah situation has made them available, and whether we want to slow down our imaginations to realize it or not, guys like that aren't available very often. I've seen people act like they're trash because their team lost to the Mavs in the first round, which is a joke, because actually, the Utah players are part of a core that was a perennial playoff team. That's a big deal. Those players are more difficult to get than we realize around here - I'm confident of that.
I could go on, but I don't think it's going to change anyone's mind. The tl;dr conclusion is that the Mavs have something going now, and there are good players who fit available now, through unforeseen events like a playoff team being blown up. Now, I'm not dying to give up a first round pick for anyone, but this attitude that the Mavs are simply waiting for '23 to convey so they can make a "real" trade is troubling to me, because there will be some other problem they have to deal with by then, I feel pretty assured.
This team's chance to build a juggernaut dynasty ended when Giannis inked his name on his new contract in Milwaukee. There is no guarantee of another, more successful Porzingis deal in the future. In fact, I find it really unlikely that they'll have another crack at something like that during this Luka contract, the way things are going. During several summers I was preaching patience (just what people are saying now) but that was with Luka on his rookie deal. He's on his second contract now, so the reality the Mavs are facing right now is the reality they'll have for a while: How do we maximize each individual season?
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