ROSTER TALK: Mavs favs for Vogel if no HC job exists. Kyrie handshake deal?

[mvossman]

Have we had this discussion yet?

I think we have a glutton of guards that need PT next season, especially if we resign Kyrie. Now, mind you, Luka is a PG on offense but a SF/PF (and depending on the C he can guard there too) mostly on defense. 

Here are the current G’s we have and roughly the minutes they should get assuming progression from the youngsters:

Luka (36), Kyrie (32), Hardy (20), Green (28), THJ (28)

With a total of 96 minutes to be played at both G positions, that’s 48 minutes over without talking about a vet injury replacement PG role player (the role they tried to sell Dragic on, who would get roughly 8 mpg when not replacing an injured player to stay in touch with the team). I honestly think there’s a world where the minutes I put up for these players are higher because some of them play that well (including THJ, not just the young duo).

Some of those minutes can certainly come from the SF spot. Luka flexes in those bigger spots on defense, but I find it extremely unlikely that a playoff contender would have all the SF minutes going to Green/THJ. I think the FO has had this discussion and that is why THJ has been on the block (and I predict they will put him there again this offseason). 

I’ve heard the arguments that THJ has looked good after the Kyrie trade, and he has, but the fact of the matter is we have too many guards. To build this roster right, either Green or THJ has got to go. Green being the better defender and a versatile player on offense, he seems to be the right choice to keep. What if, however, someone values him tremendously and gives us an offer we can’t refuse? 

Does THJ then fill enough of the needs we have for that role? He is an improved defender, but is he a POA defender that that role really should fill? He doesn’t dribble well nor does he have the mentality to distribute well (yes, Green needs progression on that front too, with him though, he is still developing while THJ is what he is) either. 

Due to all this, I just think the fit with THJ for this team is off, no matter how you slice it. I think the FO sees it this way too. 

I really like the trade idea using him to get Brooks. I think he would fit well behind Bane and whatever SF they get this offseason to replace Brooks. Doesn’t have to be that specific trade (could be for Williams, although Bos has a glutton of G’s too), but I think the FO might go into KP mode with him this offseason if they can’t find a more favorable trade.

From a roster construction standpoint I think the Center/Forward/Guard paradigm is more applicable to the defensive side of the ball, which makes Luka a forward.  If you take Luka's minutes away from the above list and realize Timmy can play some forward, you don't really have an issue.

I think this teams biggest issues are not that we have too many guards, but that we don't have a starting quality center, are short a starting quality forward, and only have 2 plus defenders on the team (Green and Maxi).  The goal should be to fill those holes and its very possible we use Timmy as trade fodder to do it, but I don't think its necessary.