ROSTER TALK: Mavs favs for Vogel if no HC job exists. Kyrie handshake deal?

[DanSchwartzgan]

https://hoopshype.com/lists/mavericks-of...tion-more/

Good article.  I'd like to think through this on the financial side.  Actual targets can come later...

I thought they were pretty fair in their assessments of Wood and Powell.  I agree that Dallas will keep one of these two.  There just isn't space under the apron(s) for both.  My prediction is they keep Powell as a backup.  The article mentions the $7mm-$8mm range for Powell and provide some comps.  The comps feel pretty close.    

Kyrie is staying.  Given our money situation, I don't think he gets his $47mm max.  My prediction is Irving will agree quickly, but his money will be flexible while Dallas does other business (like Harden last year).  When he does sign, I think he'll get something in the $37mm-$40mm range for the first year of a 3/1 with a PO on the fourth (if you ask him to give up money, you have to give him years).  He'll be painted as 'sacrificing' some money to help the team, but the truth may be that there weren't better offers.

The big financial decisions revolve around Bertans and Bullock.  Either could be used as semi expiring deals in trade.  Bertans is an expensive S/W costing $6.6mm per year for five years.  Everyone knows we can save about $5mm if we cut Bullock's NG.  What I've not seen mentioned yet is the possibility of cutting him and then S/W'ing him.  His $5.4mm guarantee becomes $1.8mm per year for 3 years.  I think that's what they will do.  They have to get some room under the apron. 

I'm carrying Bertans and the #10 pick on my spreadsheet for now (fingers crossed on the pick).  The logic is the pick at $5.2mm and Bertans combined is essentially the same as trading Bertans and the pick for someone making $5mm over his salary.  A two for one does create the need to fill in an extra minimum salary.   Bertans alone only gets you to a $22mm player (Turner).  More than that and you need to add bodies to the deal (and minimum's to the cap sheet)

I think they will keep Maxi and THJ.

I think we will keep Hardy and extend Green starting in the low teens.

We'll carry Wright and Lawson as third stringers at the lower minimum saving a couple million.  We won't fill the 15th spot to start the year.

If you keep the trade spread at about $5mm, pay KI $40mm and Powell $8mm, S/W Bullock's guarantee and do all of the other things outlined, it leaves us enough below the first apron to use the full MLE.  You'll be hard capped, but that isn't the end of the world.  If you are hard capped for using the full MLE, you might as well open the door to sign and trades.  That puts the spending limit at about $168mm.  There is certainly a world where we spend up to the new 2nd Apron at about $180mm, but that takes S&T's and the full MLE off the table.  That's fine if your trade target isn't a FA and if you have a $7mm player you like better than what you can get with $11mm.  I just think your options are more wide open if you stay under the first apron.

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The easiest decision of the off-season is Bullock. He was the 2nd worst rated player in the NBA this season according to LEBRON and the 4th worst according to RAPTOR.  He was bad in pretty much all the more advanced metrics, including the defensive ones. He’s cooked and too old to bounce back. Only half his salary is guaranteed next year.  He’s gone, the question is how.  I imagine Cuban just tries to cut salary cost rather than using the contract to acquire a worthwhile player.

You can S/W his guarantee, knocking his $5.4mm down to $1.8mm.  Unless someone values him in a trade, I think this is the path for Bullock.