ROSTER TALK: Mavs favs for Vogel if no HC job exists. Kyrie handshake deal?

[mvossman]

I've been threatening to do a Collin Sexton post for a while, but just haven't felt motivated.

Then, I heard Dan on Hardwood Knocks do an entire pod on Sexton and Iztok on 77 Heaven talking about doing the deal that helps to set up "THE" deal in the summer of 23 (when you can trade 24/26/28 and do pick swaps on the odd number years once the draft has passed).  He pointed out the trade target might not be obvious in terms of current team need.  Maybe it is someone like Dinwiddie who has been devalued for some reason, but has upside from where he is currently valued.  Sexton comes to mind for me...especially in the mid-teens as that is probably a very trade-able contract.  I'd argue more trade-able than Hardaway.

So, here is the math.  THJ to Detroit for Kemba.  The Pistons can't quite fit that under the cap unless the send out a small contract like Lee or Livers, so it is two for one with someone coming back with Kemba.  I'll use Livers and now THJ fits under the cap in Detroit and Dallas is $575,000 under the apron.  The hard cap is solved as long as we end up below the apron when the dust settles.  If Cleveland ends up with Powell, Frank or Green and Livers, you can start Sexton at $14mm-$16mm depending on whether it is Frank or Green and depending on how much room you want under the apron for flexibility.

You still have to overcome BYC (but you have a $5mm trade spread again).  You also have to keep Cleveland under the tax, compensate them for Sexton and figure out a place for Powell to end up as Cleveland doesn't need another center.  None of that is insurmountable.  Cleveland has some cheap contracts at the end of their bench.  BYC can be overcome by sending one of those to a fourth team...presumably one like Utah that could use an expiring big.

That's enough detail for now.  What it comes down to is would you do expiring Powell for expiring Kemba?  Either is in the 11-15 range on the roster and wouldn't get regular minutes.  I say who cares.  Then, would you trade THJ for Sexton?  You get what you need in terms of bench creation and I think a mid-20's sixth man of the year who has scored 20+ in his career (but whose stock is down because of injury) would be way more trade-able than Hardaway.  Finally, would you add Frank or Green to the package to get Sexton's starting money into that mid-teens area and give Cleveland something to show for their trouble?

I suppose this makes sense from an asset perspective.  I know there is a purpose but not a fan of giving Timmy up for Kemba.  I feel like maybe Detroit should be paying the S&T tax to Cleveland?  I realize the idea is to make this move to turn Sexton into an asset and he is very talented offensively, but I really don't like him as a player.  He is a terrible defender and very selfish on offense.  He does not seem like a Kidd kind of player, and in order to build his value we would need to play him 30 minutes a game.  To be honest, I don't know why Detroit would not make this move as they have a lot more room to maneuver and can let him run wild without worrying too much about it.

[Kammrath]

What it comes down to is would you do expiring Powell for expiring Kemba?  Either is in the 11-15 range on the roster and wouldn't get regular minutes.  I say who cares.  Then, would you trade THJ for Sexton? 

DP for Kemba? Reluctantly...

THJ for Sexton? Reluctantly...

I don't hate this, but I was REALLY, REALLY looking forward to being done with tiny guards who cannot play D.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

Interesting idea Dan. The uncertainty for me is in not knowing enough about Sexton the person. Would he be happy coming off the bench? Can he buy in to the culture Kidd is creating with a more defensively oriented identity. Would he have much more trade value THJ regardless of these factors at around the same money? I would say yes, assuming he is healthy. He’s certainly a better “talent.” If the cost is Frank or Green (especially) count me out though. I think we need more potential 3-D guys with defensive chops, not less. I’d rather just roll with THJ, Dwight, Frank and Green— all of whom are useful depth pieces in their own respective ways and are, by all accounts, model citizens.
Also, I have a question: is there any way any of this benefits our pursuit of the “big trade”using picks in 2024? Aside from banking on Sexton being a better trade chip than THJ+ whichever young gun we send out in the deal? You have a much better grasp of cap ramifications than I do.

[ItsGoTime]

I feel like Sexton is the new Schroder. Being a malcontent will eventually wear out it’s welcome around the league. It also seems that if you’re that way, but not highly talented, the league is starting to shut you out earlier. I mean, at this point, does Sexton have a market? I know he’s injured and a RFA, but if everyone knew the price to which Cle would not go past and they still didn’t even attempt to do something with that? I think there might be a chance that THJ has more value than him if Timmy has the year that some are banking on around here.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

There’s no chance the Mavs go after Sexton IMO. 

He’s the only guy left and the fan base is desperate.

Edit: damn I forgot to login to my other account

[Kammrath]

Edit: damn I forgot to login to my other account

Yeah, weird seeing you be reasonable and not an attacking troll.

[F Gump]

I've been threatening to do a Collin Sexton post for a while, but just haven't felt motivated.

I have fiddled a bit with Sexton ideas, but I keep coming back to the obstacle of multiple rules that get in the way. As I quickly peruse your thoughts, a few questions:

1  A bit of mathiness for future reference -- I do show that DET could do THJ-Kemba into cap room, using Spotrac numbers, but my math may be off, I dunno. By my maths, the fit is very tight, to be sure - only $1,579 left over. But my bigger question on that end is, why would Mavs do THJ for Kemba, if they are getting Sexton (which would make Kemba useless)?
2 So I think the DET preparation would have to be THJ-for-Burks, which doesn't get you under the apron before doing Sexton, but you're close enough (only about 200K over).
3 But then, on the Sexton end, you are never getting $5M of latitude anyhow -- you were only getting a cushion of 575K or less. Now with Burks from DET, the Sexton salary has to be LESS than what you send out for the CLE end of things. As you note, this means yet another team in the mix to take some of that salary, since CLE can't take it all.
4 CLE would have two issues to deal with - one is BY on Sexton, and the other is total payroll. Their reported offer to Sexton (about 12.6M) is at a number that leaves them under the tax (they are about 13M under), and I bet that's their limit. But is Powell + Frank enough (the most they can take while staying under the tax line) enough to make them interested?

At the end of the day, I keep ending up thinking there are too many mouths to feed, to make Sexton workable.

[cow]

But is Powell + Frank enough (the most they can take while staying under the tax line) enough to make them interested?

My gut says the Cavs say no.  Do we have some SRPs we can toss their way?  What if you swapped used your other expiring big instead of Powell?  That gives you little more wiggle room to include another small contract instead of Frank.  I guess that would depend on how the Mavs view Maxi in the long run.

[mvossman]

I have fiddled a bit with Sexton ideas, but I keep coming back to the obstacle of multiple rules that get in the way. As I quickly peruse your thoughts, a few questions:

1  A bit of mathiness for future reference -- I do show that DET could do THJ-Kemba into cap room, using Spotrac numbers, but my math may be off, I dunno. By my maths, the fit is very tight, to be sure - only $1,579 left over. But my bigger question on that end is, why would Mavs do THJ for Kemba, if they are getting Sexton (which would make Kemba useless)?
2 So I think the DET preparation would have to be THJ-for-Burks, which doesn't get you under the apron before doing Sexton, but you're close enough (only about 200K over).
3 But then, on the Sexton end, you are never getting $5M of latitude anyhow -- you were only getting a cushion of 575K or less. Now with Burks from DET, the Sexton salary has to be LESS than what you send out for the CLE end of things. As you note, this means yet another team in the mix to take some of that salary, since CLE can't take it all.
4 CLE would have two issues to deal with - one is BY on Sexton, and the other is total payroll. Their reported offer to Sexton (about 12.6M) is at a number that leaves them under the tax (they are about 13M under), and I bet that's their limit. But is Powell + Frank enough (the most they can take while staying under the tax line) enough to make them interested?

At the end of the day, I keep ending up thinking there are too many mouths to feed, to make Sexton workable.

Sounds like too many moving parts, but swapping out Burks for Kemba makes this way more interesting to me.

[mvossman]

My gut says the Cavs say no.  Do we have some SRPs we can toss their way?  What if you swapped used your other expiring big instead of Powell?  That gives you little more wiggle room to include another small contract instead of Frank.  I guess that would depend on how the Mavs view Maxi in the long run.

No interest in sending out Maxi.  I think he is key in unlocking Wood's full value.

[F Gump]

Sounds like too many moving parts, but swapping out Burks for Kemba makes this way more interesting to me.

Agreed. But even with Burks, the rest of it gets very iffy very quickly, at least as far as I can see. There are too many limits or rules that don't easily fit together.

If you get away from the Sexton angle, with the apron issue, I find it interesting that the following all fits together neatly:
*THJ to DET, with Burks coming back to Dallas ... that leaves DET about 700K under the cap.
*Then the surplus of THJ's trade-match value lets DAL accept Rose from NY, without NY having to take any salary back. Is NY working on a deal where they need something like that as part of making an offer get accepted? In addition, even without a different deal, all of that still works if everyone thinks they are better off to do it (for example, if NY wants to move on from Rose, so that Thib's reins are handed to Brunson and Quickley). BUT - if there was a potential trade where NY might need the extra outgoing salary of Rose, the teams could wait until it was resolved one way or the other.

I can see it happening, and imo it would certainly qualify as the very kind of "big deal coming" deal we've been hoping is ahead.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I have fiddled a bit with Sexton ideas, but I keep coming back to the obstacle of multiple rules that get in the way. As I quickly peruse your thoughts, a few questions:

1  A bit of mathiness for future reference -- I do show that DET could do THJ-Kemba into cap room, using Spotrac numbers, but my math may be off, I dunno. By my maths, the fit is very tight, to be sure - only $1,579 left over. But my bigger question on that end is, why would Mavs do THJ for Kemba, if they are getting Sexton (which would make Kemba useless)?
2 So I think the DET preparation would have to be THJ-for-Burks, which doesn't get you under the apron before doing Sexton, but you're close enough (only about 200K over).
3 But then, on the Sexton end, you are never getting $5M of latitude anyhow -- you were only getting a cushion of 575K or less. Now with Burks from DET, the Sexton salary has to be LESS than what you send out for the CLE end of things. As you note, this means yet another team in the mix to take some of that salary, since CLE can't take it all.
4 CLE would have two issues to deal with - one is BY on Sexton, and the other is total payroll. Their reported offer to Sexton (about 12.6M) is at a number that leaves them under the tax (they are about 13M under), and I bet that's their limit. But is Powell + Frank enough (the most they can take while staying under the tax line) enough to make them interested?

At the end of the day, I keep ending up thinking there are too many mouths to feed, to make Sexton workable.

I’m traveling and don’t have access to the spread sheet I was working from.  I had it a little over $100k short if memory serves.  No telling what the difference is that has me a hair over and you a hair under.

I wasn’t really trying to just trade THJ for Kemba.  I considered the goal to be Sexton and I have Detroit sending out one of its inexpensive recent draft picks.  So, in essence it is Kemba/Lee or Kemba/Livers with Lee or Livers ending up in Detroit as part of the package for Sexton.  It is really hard to value THJ.  I can see a fit in Detroit, but at what price?  Does he command assets in return?  I honestly don’t know.

I do like Burks in this deal better than Kemba.  I like Burks in any deal better than Kemba.  If you do him instead of Kemba, Detroit will definitely have to send out some more salary.  I agree that Cleveland doesn’t want to pay tax (I mentioned it) and has to overcome BYC (mentioned that too).  Depending on where Sexton ends up dollar wise, they have to bridge the trade matching gap with another outgoing salary to somewhere.  But, with the numbers I’m talking about, it doesn’t have to be a very large salary.  I’m envisioning that player going to Utah as part of a larger deal when Mitchell finally goes to NY.  But, it could be salary to a team with a TPE or cap room also.

There are a lot of moving pieces, but I actually think the trick is getting Sexton to agree to a term.  Dallas would want a 2+1 I’m guessing and Sexton at those dollars would want to be free ASAP.  Schwartz is the agent, but following the last Kemba fiasco, I’ve not noticed any proof that he and Cuban share most favored nation status any more.  As you indicate, this is MUCH easier if you don’t have to work around the S&T rules and can just trade match for someone like Rose.

[cow]

No interest in sending out Maxi.  I think he is key in unlocking Wood's full value.

Have to give something to get something and Powell + Frank isn't going to bring back any value without including picks.  I love Maxi but I have no idea what kind of contract he wants long term or if the Mavs are even considering him for the long term.  If he isn't in the plans or wants more than we are willing to pay, it's better to extract value now than letting him walk for nothing.  

That said, I hope he's here longterm.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

I think he is key in unlocking Wood's full value.

I fully believe in this. 

To me, this pairing just fits perfectly. If wood bumps up his defense and Maxi remains healthy, that's a good front court as any in the play-offs.

[mvossman]

Agreed. But even with Burks, the rest of it gets very iffy very quickly, at least as far as I can see. There are too many limits or rules that don't easily fit together.

If you get away from the Sexton angle, with the apron issue, I find it interesting that the following all fits together neatly:
*THJ to DET, with Burks coming back to Dallas ... that leaves DET about 700K under the cap.
*Then the surplus of THJ's trade-match value lets DAL accept Rose from NY, without NY having to take any salary back. Is NY working on a deal where they need something like that as part of making an offer get accepted? In addition, even without a different deal, all of that still works if everyone thinks they are better off to do it (for example, if NY wants to move on from Rose, so that Thib's reins are handed to Brunson and Quickley). BUT - if there was a potential trade where NY might need the extra outgoing salary of Rose, the teams could wait until it was resolved one way or the other.

I can see it happening, and imo it would certainly qualify as the very kind of "big deal coming" deal we've been hoping is ahead.

I'm not terribly excited about a Burks/Kemba return for THJ, but a Burks/Rose return is more interesting.  That would have made sense as an S&T for Brunson before Detroit took on all of those contracts.  You get a decent 3rd playmaker and a 3&D wing to take some of the pressure off Dorian/Bullock.

[F Gump]

1 I’m traveling and don’t have access to the spread sheet I was working from.  I had it a little over $100k short if memory serves.  No telling what the difference is that has me a hair over and you a hair under.

2 I wasn’t really trying to just trade THJ for Kemba.  I considered the goal to be Sexton and I have Detroit sending out one of its inexpensive recent draft picks.  So, in essence it is Kemba/Lee or Kemba/Livers with Lee or Livers ending up in Detroit as part of the package for Sexton.  It is really hard to value THJ.  I can see a fit in Detroit, but at what price?  Does he command assets in return?  I honestly don’t know.

4 I do like Burks in this deal better than Kemba.  I like Burks in any deal better than Kemba.  If you do him instead of Kemba, Detroit will definitely have to send out some more salary.  I agree that Cleveland doesn’t want to pay tax (I mentioned it) and has to overcome BYC (mentioned that too).  Depending on where Sexton ends up dollar wise, they have to bridge the trade matching gap with another outgoing salary to somewhere.  But, with the numbers I’m talking about, it doesn’t have to be a very large salary.  I’m envisioning that player going to Utah as part of a larger deal when Mitchell finally goes to NY.  But, it could be salary to a team with a TPE or cap room also.

There are a lot of moving pieces, but I actually think the trick is getting Sexton to agree to a term.  Dallas would want a 2+1 I’m guessing and Sexton at those dollars would want to be free ASAP.  Schwartz is the agent, but following the last Kemba fiasco, I’ve not noticed any proof that he and Cuban share most favored nation status any more.  As you indicate, this is MUCH easier if you don’t have to work around the S&T rules and can just trade match for someone like Rose.

1 "I’m traveling and don’t have access to the spread sheet I was working from.  I had it a little over $100k short if memory serves.  No telling what the difference is that has me a hair over and you a hair under."..... Did you remember that a cap-room trade works if it leaves DET at no more than "cap + 100K"? That may be the missing piece.

2 "I wasn’t really trying to just trade THJ for Kemba.  I considered the goal to be Sexton and I have Detroit sending out one of its inexpensive recent draft picks."... I get that part. I just think that ending up with both Sexton and Kemba wouldn't make sense for Dallas. 

3 "I do like Burks in this deal better than Kemba.  I like Burks in any deal better than Kemba.  If you do him instead of Kemba, Detroit will definitely have to send out some more salary."... I don't understand this. Why? THJ-Burks leaves DET even more below the cap than THJ-Kemba-X. Did you mean to say that the team being forced to send out more salary somewhere would be DAL? I can see that. See below.

4 "Depending on where Sexton ends up dollar wise, they have to bridge the trade matching gap with another outgoing salary to somewhere.  But, with the numbers I’m talking about, it doesn’t have to be a very large salary ....I actually think the trick is getting Sexton to agree to a term" ... I agree that the particulars of a Sexton deal would be one of the biggest hurdles. But it's mainly going to be about the dollars, I think, and not years. A 2+1 deal wouldn't be part of the discussion, since a snt has to be 3 years not including any option year.

Putting numbers to see if we can fill in the blanks in a workable way: I think this was where you landed -- If Cleveland ends up with Powell, Frank or Green and Livers, you can start Sexton at $14mm-$16mm depending on whether it is Frank or Green and depending on how much room you want under the apron for flexibility.

In trying to reverse engineer a trade, and just plug in made up contracts, I end up thinking the trickiest issue would be how to make work where Dallas ends up. The push-pull will be between DAL staying under the hard cap, and Sexton getting enough to want the deal.

[Chicagojk]

So nothing is going on now, so I was thinking if these two players were available for the minimum, which would you prefer?   I am not saying I would want either.

Kemba Walker- more of the traditional point guard.  At this stage probably better than Trey Burke.    Could re-capture the magic for short stretches.   Negatives are he has knee issues and is small.   He would be an outlier on the current team with his small size.  

Lance Stephenson-  Sort of a wild card.   Has some Deshawn Stephenson crazy in him...both good and bad.  Bigger than Kemba.   Likes to have the ball quite a bit.  Has never been a very efficient shooter and has been out of the league for stretches.

[Mavs2021]

So nothing is going on now, so I was thinking if these two players were available for the minimum, which would you prefer?   I am not saying I would want either.

Kemba Walker- more of the traditional point guard.  At this stage probably better than Trey Burke.    Could re-capture the magic for short stretches.   Negatives are he has knee issues and is small.   He would be an outlier on the current team with his small size.  

Lance Stephenson-  Sort of a wild card.   Has some Deshawn Stephenson crazy in him...both good and bad.  Bigger than Kemba.   Likes to have the ball quite a bit.  Has never been a very efficient shooter and has been out of the league for stretches.

Easily Kemba. People overstate his state of washed-upness. Three years ago Rose was in the same spot. Okay younger, but still. He´s still only 31 and a premium back-up PG. Give him 25 MPG off the bench and you get 15/5/4 ish with the obvious bad defense, but that´s why he plays on a 2nd unit.

[mvossman]

So nothing is going on now, so I was thinking if these two players were available for the minimum, which would you prefer?   I am not saying I would want either.

Kemba Walker- more of the traditional point guard.  At this stage probably better than Trey Burke.    Could re-capture the magic for short stretches.   Negatives are he has knee issues and is small.   He would be an outlier on the current team with his small size.  

Lance Stephenson-  Sort of a wild card.   Has some Deshawn Stephenson crazy in him...both good and bad.  Bigger than Kemba.   Likes to have the ball quite a bit.  Has never been a very efficient shooter and has been out of the league for stretches.

I would probably prefer Bledsoe to either of them.

[Chicagojk]

I would probably prefer Bledsoe to either of them.

He may be a better option.  May be looking for more than the minimum....might be deserved too.