MAVS NEWS: Luka Wins Player Of the Week

[loki]

I've been sounding this alarm since the offseason began.  Naji is more of a SF/PF than a PF.  We need a switching defensive PF/C who can also stretch the D.  Maxi simply can't be counted on.  I still don't see OMax as an NBA rotation player.  I hope I'm wrong.  OMax emerging to replace Maxi would be incredible, but I doubt it.

Possible Candidates:
Tari Eason
Naz Reid
Dean Wade
Zach Collins
Al Horford
M.Wagner

Thoughts?

Paul Reed might be a good option. He's currently riding the bench in Detroit.

[SleepingHero]

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[SleepingHero]

Brad Townsend (@townbrad)
Mavericks after 20 games last season: 12-8.
Mavericks after 20 games this season: 12-8.

In the last 25 NBA seasons, teams that win 12 or more of their first 20 games go on to the playoffs roughly 90% of the time. Dallas of course has higher aspirations that that.

[SleepingHero]

@MikeACurtis2
Jason Kidd said he hopes Naji Marshall's role doesn't change once Luka Doncic returns:

“That’s the secret sauce. We gotta figure out how to keep everybody playing at this level when we get Luka back. Luka, his skillset will fit. The goal is to continue to keep playing at this level if we want to be one of the best teams in this league.”

[SleepingHero]

@sixfivelando

Where the Mavs rank after 20 games...

Net Rating: 6th
Offensive Rating: 5th
Defensive Rating: 7th
Points: 7th
Rebounds: 8th
Assists: 15th
Steals: 18th
Blocks: 11th
Second Chance Points: 6th
Points in the Paint: 4th

[DallasMaverick]

@sixfivelando

Where the Mavs rank after 20 games...

Net Rating: 6th
Offensive Rating: 5th
Defensive Rating: 7th
Points: 7th
Rebounds: 8th
Assists: 15th
Steals: 18th
Blocks: 11th
Second Chance Points: 6th
Points in the Paint: 4th

Good enough to fight for a title.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

@MikeACurtis2
Jason Kidd said he hopes Naji Marshall's role doesn't change once Luka Doncic returns:

“That’s the secret sauce. We gotta figure out how to keep everybody playing at this level when we get Luka back. Luka, his skillset will fit. The goal is to continue to keep playing at this level if we want to be one of the best teams in this league.”

I've been saying it for years now.  For Luka to go to the next level, he needs to look to model his play after Lebron.  He has to learn to play off the ball, allowing Kyrie, Naji, Exum, and Din to do their thing.  I also think Lively will continue to improve his passing.

IMO, this will be the rotation by the end of the year...

1 Luka, 8 Hardy
2 Kyrie, 7 Grimes
5 Naji, 6 Klay
4 PJ, 10 MaxiReplacement
3 Lively, 9 Gafford

[Scott41theMavs]

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Am I crazy for strongly believing that Luka is the one who needs to fall into place?

[Scott41theMavs]

I've been saying it for years now.  For Luka to go to the next level, he needs to look to model his play after Lebron.  He has to learn to play off the ball, allowing Kyrie, Naji, Exum, and Din to do their thing.  I also think Lively will continue to improve his passing.

IMO, this will be the rotation by the end of the year...

1 Luka, 8 Hardy
2 Kyrie, 7 Grimes
5 Naji, 6 Klay
4 PJ, 10 MaxiReplacement
3 Lively, 9 Gafford

I liked the first part of your post. Putting Hardy in the playoff rotation is not the solution. Din's there, and he's not #8.

[Scott41theMavs]

What stands out?

The Mavs' defense dropping without Luka. Maybe the problem was less Luka being out of shape than Luka being out of shape and expending as much energy on defense as on offense - although he still took a lot of defensive possessions off. Of course, the solution is still for him to get into shape.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I liked the first part of your post. Putting Hardy in the playoff rotation is not the solution. Din's there, and he's not #8.

I debated Hardy vs Din in the rotation.  I think you're right, unless Hardy really improves his defense.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

The Mavs' defense dropping without Luka. Maybe the problem was less Luka being out of shape than Luka being out of shape and expending as much energy on defense as on offense - although he still took a lot of defensive possessions off. Of course, the solution is still for him to get into shape.

Astute.  Luka also had a few great defensive games.  The obvious solution is for Luka to get in shape.  The other is for him to play more off the ball on O.

[DallasMaverick]

Astute.  Luka also had a few great defensive games.  The obvious solution is for Luka to get in shape.  The other is for him to play more off the ball on O.

Pretty small sample size. 

Might have more to do with quality of opponents, or even individual matchups.

[david75090]

Dinwiddie has had some pretty good +/-'s here lately, if such stats can be believed. Could be an indication of him embracing his role and not trying to do too much.

[michaeltex]

Astute.  Luka also had a few great defensive games.  The obvious solution is for Luka to get in shape.  The other is for him to play more off the ball on O.

In last night's POR game, it seemed like there were a lot of different players bringing up the ball, which often gave Luka a chance to move without pressure for a bit. Also let him get the ball closer to the basket and not have to deal with a double team at mid-court. All of which, IMO, helps keep his energy (and efficiency) level up. 

Really looking forward to see how Kidd handles rotations once the rest of the guys are back. With Naji, Grimes and Din finding a groove, they may need to make the games longer for everyone to get their minutes.

[Smitty]

Really looking forward to see how Kidd handles rotations once the rest of the guys are back. With Naji, Grimes and Din finding a groove, they may need to make the games longer for everyone to get their minutes.

This is the way I see the regular season rotation as it stands today.

Luka 36 | Exum 12
Kyrie 34 | Dinwiddie 14
Klay 28 | Grimes 20
PJW 30 | Naji 18
Lively 28 | Gafford 20

If we look at MPG from those 10 last year:

Luka 37.5 | Exum 19.8
Kyrie 35.0 | Dinwiddie 24.2
Klay 29.7 | Grimes 19.2
PJW 32.2 | Naji 19.0
Lively 23.5 | Gafford 21.5

The only real increase from my projections is Lively jumping from ~24 MPG to 28 MPG. Exum and Dinwiddie get less, but with injuries they'll get more over an 82 game season.

Maxi is 11th in my mind and will obviously play but I would love for his role to change from every day player at PF, to 3rd Center and only backup 4 with injuries/rest. 

Hardy will have to show that he's better than Exum/Dinwiddie before I can put him in any 10-man rotation.

This was my post months ago with how I thought it'd play out with everyone healthy. Exum then got hurt shortly after. But the idea is still the same. My prediction of Maxi and Hardy being out of a healthy 10-man rotation look to be correct so far. The are by far the weakest links.

[mvossman]

This was my post months ago with how I thought it'd play out with everyone healthy. Exum then got hurt shortly after. But the idea is still the same. My prediction of Maxi and Hardy being out of a healthy 10-man rotation look to be correct so far. The are by far the weakest links.

Exum is going to have a hard time cracking the regular rotation when everyone is healthy.  Naji and Grimes are playing starter quality basketball right now.  Any minutes he would get would be at the expense of Dinwiddie in the regular rotation.

[Smitty]

Exum is going to have a hard time cracking the regular rotation when everyone is healthy.  Naji and Grimes are playing starter quality basketball right now.  Any minutes he would get would be at the expense of Dinwiddie in the regular rotation.

As it stands now, you're probably right. This post was made 4 months ago. I'd tweak it a little with what we know now, but it's still a good baseline for a 10-man rotation. If we drop it to 9 it probably works out even better for the guys you mentioned, with Grimes/Naji/Dinwiddie getting a bit more off the bench.

[ThisIStheYear]

Hopefully someone with some knowledge of the new cap rules can clarify. Do the hard capped Mavs really have a path to match salaries and bring back a good player without including Klay and his contract? And no, these ridiculous 5 for 1 type of trades aren’t going to cut it. Teams just don’t take back that many players.

[F Gump]

This was my post months ago with how I thought it'd play out with everyone healthy. Exum then got hurt shortly after. But the idea is still the same. My prediction of Maxi and Hardy being out of a healthy 10-man rotation look to be correct so far. The are by far the weakest links.

When everyone is healthy, Maxi is the backup PF. Their default rotation continues to be PJ and Maxi alternating at the position.

I don't see anything to indicate Kidd has other plans, but instead is patient with Maxi when he returns from any injury, with the idea that he is a valuable piece as long as he is healthy enough to play up to his 2-way ability.