12-15-2023, 01:16 PM
(12-15-2023, 10:52 AM)mvossman Wrote: EPM is very noisy this early in the season, but it agrees with your (and my) eye test. It has:
Luka
Kyrie
Lively
Exum
DJJ
Timmy
Williams
Powell
Kind of crazy that our 3-5 guys were all acquired this last offseason and making less than 5 mil a year.
Williams is ranked in the 50th percentile. That's disappointing, but dead in line with prior two seasons. DJJ isn't that far off his norm in this metric either. Powell has seen a big drop off (his past two seasons have been 77 and 82). Green was a 60 last season (better early and worse after the injury). A few years ago Holmes was actually in the 90's.
Using GWill at the 50th percentile as the cutoff, if you go team by team, here is the list of anyone who has been mentioned in recent days who ranked higher than that:
52 DFS
52 Hayward
86 Caruso
67 Vucevic
62 Drummond
62 P. Williams
63 Bojan (5 games)
78 Hartenstein (not likely with Robinson out)
70 J. Isaac
89 Anunoby
87 Siakam
71 Poeltl
71 Gafford
67 Kuzma
93 Markkanen
65 J. Grant
The real difference makers (Markkanen, Siakam, OG and Caruso) will be very expensive. Anyone else isn't much of an upgrade or has to be projected based on past performance and fit. For instance, John Collins is a 36 right now, was a 50 last season with the bad finger and was an 86, 90 and 93 the three seasons prior. What number would he likely achieve if he was here? My guess is it would be higher than 36 (BTW, there were a couple of D-EPM's in the 70's in recent years).
Olynyk is also reported as a Jazz player likely to be moved. He's a 42 right now, but his prior 3 seasons were 75, 78 and 78. A good front office doesn't reject a player based on bad current numbers on a bad team. They project what a player might do here based on fit and past performance.