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[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Keldon Johnson averaged 22ppg last year. Josh Green averaged 9.

While I like his intangibles/defense and potential/still young, that comparison is nuts.

[DallasMaverick]

It seems it would have happened by now if it was going to happen.  Below is Sam Quinn's evaluation of Green (CBS Sports).  It is part of his evaluation of the entire draft class.  Green fits in what he calls the "Bet on Yourself Candidates".  The Keldon Johnson contract he references was 4/$74mm.  It started at $20mm and declined with an average of $18.5mm.


"There is an open competition for the starting shoot guard slot in Dallas. The metrics suggest Josh Green deserves it, but Jason Kidd's trust in him waxed and waned last season. That should suit Green just fine. He has the Mavericks over a barrel, in a sense. If he plays well, they'd have no means of replacing him as a free agent next summer. Even if Kidd yanks his minutes around, he's put more than enough on tape already to warrant a starter-level offer sheet in restricted free agency. 

If Dallas wants to lock him up, it would likely need to approach that Keldon Johnson number. Ask Jalen Brunson how comfortable the Mavericks are making big upside bets like that. In all likelihood, their offer underwhelms and Green punishes them for their hesitance during the season."

It’s always been a crapshoot, trying to project a player’s future performance, and thus, his value. 

What makes it so much more difficult now is the high price of being wrong, as far as future roster construction.

Can you get off a bad contract? Sure. Either take back bad contracts in return, or give up future value (like draft picks) to escape your wrong guesses.

And that’s what it is, really. Just a guess.

[surfpuckmd]

Deni Avdija signed a 4-year, $55 million extension.  Josh Green is a significantly better player than Advija.  

Zach Collins also received a $17.5 million per year extension.

The Josh Green extension sticker price continues to go up.  Don't be surprised if it averages over $18 million per year.

[mvossman]

Deni Avdija signed a 4-year, $55 million extension.  Josh Green is a significantly better player than Advija.  

Zach Collins also received a $17.5 million per year extension.

The Josh Green extension sticker price continues to go up.  Don't be surprised if it averages over $18 million per year.

There is no point in doing that.  Worst case free agent offer is not much more than that unless he explodes this season.

[SleepingHero]

Editors Note: Quote from the article, not Dan
If Dallas wants to lock him up, it would likely need to approach that Keldon Johnson number. Ask Jalen Brunson how comfortable the Mavericks are making big upside bets like that. In all likelihood, their offer underwhelms and Green punishes them for their hesitance during the season."

This thought process to me makes no sense and is a bit inane.

The biggest and most relevant difference between Green and Brunsons situations is that Green is an RFA. No matter what, Green will be a Maverick if the Mavs want to retain him. They did not have the luxury of that with Brunson. 

No way Green forfeits a long term deal and takes the qualifying offer (which still means he's back here next year). Green will be a Mav and any pussyfooting regarding an extension is in line with the Mavericks FINALLY using their leverage as a team to get the best deal on the books as they can. 

If a team comes along and and the market agrees that Green is worth a massive deal, then Mavs have all the leverage in the world here whether it be enforcing a SnT for any Green deal or just matching to retain the asset. For all of these reasons, he's not going to be getting a Keldon Johnson type of deal unless some up and coming team offers it and dares the Mavs to match. Which they will. Because the alternative doesn't make a lick of sense.

[Chicagojk]

This thought process to me makes no sense and is a bit inane.

The biggest and most relevant difference between Green and Brunsons situations is that Green is an RFA. No matter what, Green will be a Maverick if the Mavs want to retain him. They did not have the luxury of that with Brunson. 

No way Green forfeits a long term deal and takes the qualifying offer (which still means he's back here next year). Green will be a Mav and any pussyfooting regarding an extension is in line with the Mavericks FINALLY using their leverage as a team to get the best deal on the books as they can. 

If a team comes along and and the market agrees that Green is worth a massive deal, then Mavs have all the leverage in the world here whether it be enforcing a SnT for any Green deal or just matching to retain the asset. For all of these reasons, he's not going to be getting a Keldon Johnson type of deal unless some up and coming team offers it and dares the Mavs to match. Which they will. Because the alternative doesn't make a lick of sense.

It is a pretty interesting situation.   I wonder where each party is willing to pay/accept, and how much gap there is between the two.   There is a very real chance Green can be in a much better spot next offseason.  But then again, he could be in a worse spot.  What happens if he gets injured?  What happens if his play plateaus from last season.  There is also a real chance Green plays well but gets stuck in the same thing as Grant Williams or PJ Washington where teams are afraid to offer because they think their team would match.  

On the other hand, the Mavs have proven not to be very good at bluffing.  See Brunson, Jalen and we can pay the most.   I am not cap literate but this could get tricky if lets say the Mavs make a trade this year for a guy making 20 plus million.   

I just hope the Mavs have been proactive and have been in touch with Green for a while (even if it was his decision to wait until after the summer).   There should be strong reasons for both sides wanting to get something done.  Green to get generational security while maybe taking a little less than a year from now and for the Mavs to commit to a guy who fits their timeline.   We have seen for multiple reasons the Mavs are not typically good at this part.

[SleepingHero]

It is a pretty interesting situation.   I wonder where each party is willing to pay/accept, and how much gap there is between the two.   There is a very real chance Green can be in a much better spot next offseason.  But then again, he could be in a worse spot.  What happens if he gets injured?  What happens if his play plateaus from last season.  There is also a real chance Green plays well but gets stuck in the same thing as Grant Williams or PJ Washington where teams are afraid to offer because they think their team would match.  

On the other hand, the Mavs have proven not to be very good at bluffing.  See Brunson, Jalen and we can pay the most.   I am not cap literate but this could get tricky if lets say the Mavs make a trade this year for a guy making 20 plus million.   

I just hope the Mavs have been proactive and have been in touch with Green for a while (even if it was his decision to wait until after the summer).   There should be strong reasons for both sides wanting to get something done.  Green to get generational security while maybe taking a little less than a year from now and for the Mavs to commit to a guy who fits their timeline.   We have seen for multiple reasons the Mavs are not typically good at this part.

For the Mavs to make a trade for a guy making 20+ mil they'd have to:
1) make sure the deal doesn't put them over the 172 mil hard cap they can't cross this season.
2) send out enough money to make sure matching rules are satisfied. At the minimum it'd be 13 mil in salary needed to match. 

And even still, tax implications alone shouldn't stop the Mavs from resigning Green even if they make a big trade. The bluff from Brunson was because Mark Cuban is a blithering idiot and can't recognize talent and didn't believe in him. He was wrong (so was I). But if Cuban actually believed in JB he'd still be here. 

Thankfully in this situation the Mavs don't need to have any negotiating power since they can match any deal. And they will. That's why there should be nothing to worry about.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I've said all along J.Green's pricetag is going to start at $18m.

[IamDougieFresh]

I've said all along J.Green's pricetag is going to start at $18m.

Shams chose violence. 3 years 41 million. 13.67 mil per year average.

https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/17165...71050?s=20

[omahen]

I've said all along J.Green's pricetag is going to start at $18m.

What would we do without you

---

Good deal. If Green takes a couple of steps forward, they have a player with a great contract. If he doesn't, he is not overpaid as a bench rotation player.

[dirkfansince1998]

Shams chose violence. 3 years 41 million. 13.67 mil per year average.

https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/17165...71050?s=20

That's great value. Even if he cannot reach another level. The way it looks 20min per game rotation players are going for MLE money or more.

[omahen]

Mavs are right around first apron for next season with players under contract. 13 players have contract, out of that 2 are not guaranteed and Holmes has a PO. It is reasonable to expect Mavs will not be adding any additional salary in potential deals they make.

[KillerLeft]

Great deal for both sides. Now, let's see if Kidd and Green can agree on a role that makes sense for an entire season. If they can, this will look like a GREAT deal for the Mavs.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Mavs are right around first apron for next season with players under contract.  13 players have contract, out of that 2 are not guaranteed and Holmes has a PO. It is reasonable to expect Mavs will not be adding any additional salary in potential deals they make.

Agreed.  Any trade this year will definitely be built around Hardaway/Holmes/draft capital for someone who has less than the 29 million they have committed to those two next year on their current deal or someone who is expiring that they feel they can resign under that number.

[Jym]

$13.7 mil a year.
Hard to argue with that. Was gonna consider anything under $15 mil a year to be reasonable

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Great deal for both sides. Now, let's see if Kidd and Green can agree on a role that makes sense for an entire season. If they can, this will look like a GREAT deal for the Mavs.

If Green gets a starter's role and doesn't get yanked around from here on out then I'm going to assume that all the media crap from Kidd was just to fuck around with negotiations which makes me less than thrilled.

[JamesConway912]

Good deal, now start him, play him 30+ mpg and don’t look back. A year later we’ll have a 14-16 ppg scorer who knocks down threes at a 40+% clip while playing good defense and being a secondary playmaker.

[WillE]

Shams chose violence. 3 years 41 million. 13.67 mil per year average.

https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/17165...71050?s=20

I bet it's not a coincidence they landed on Dirk's number

If it even somehow capped Greens demand, then Dirk is the gift that keeps on giving

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

So now that you have your two role players wrapped up for 4 years in Grant Williams and Josh Green, I'm more than happy to play the OG trade game for everything else on the table.

Hardaway/Holmes/Hardy/Omax/27 FRP is probably the best package I could see us putting together. Would that be enough for OG/filler (thad young and garrett temple)? Is that too much? All kind of depends on how the Raptors season goes obviously but it's interesting to think about what the front office does with those 5 assets in February.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Good news. Basically the same AAV as Grant Williams.

Guessing it was Josh and his agent that wanted one less year. He’ll still be in his prime and in line for a bigger deal at the end of this one. Good compromise for both sides.

Holmes and Hardaway are the only bad contracts left. Both will be expiring next season.