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[Chicagojk]

https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2023/07...er-lively/

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think your comps hold up. It's cherry-picking one aspect of the values in a trade, without including the rest.

For example, re the value of Holmes ---in taking Holmes, the pick being paid wasn't about the value of Holmes the player per se, but rather the value of the Mavs eating $12M of cap room for SAC this summer (and next summer too), since no player being sent in return. That swap tells us more about the value of cap room, and less about the value being placed on Holmes as a player.

These ideas don't have ATL taking on Holmes contract to create cap room for DAL, but rather a swap of cap obligations. In fact, ATL is the one getting payroll reduction (about 3M this season, and about 6M overall).

Re the value of Capela himself related to ANY trade -- in the draft day proposals, ATL's ask of Green (and also a pick swap) was not necessarily about the value of Capela at all, but rather the perceived diff in usefulness between Bertans and Capella. 
CAPELA for BERTANS, with Green/swap being the tip they asked.

That doesn't give us any indication of what Capela himself is worth to ATL overall, but only in relation to Bertans (who is not part of this trade idea). If they get back 2 lesser paid centers with differing styles and strengths, who they can use to back up Okongwu, and free up minutes for Okongwu by being rid of Capela, without having to pay someone to take Capela's contract off their payroll, and also reduce their overall payroll in the process, maybe it's enough.

I would add that I don't think Capela's price tag, whatever it is, is way far from what the Mavs have to offer. These talks would have put buried long ago if that was not the case imo. And I have to wonder if the issue at this point is more about getting past the Holmes trade restriction than anything else. They don't need Siakam to be incoming to want to move off of Capela and free up minutes for Okongwu and his smaller contract.

There is a ton of good perspective in this post.  Well done!

My only add is I wonder if it is the Bufkin deadline more than the Holmes deadline.  If this is a KAT trade instead of a Siakam trade, you can break it up in a way where Holmes doesn’t have to be aggregated.

Three way is Holmes to Atlanta/Anderson to Dallas and a couple of young guys to Minnesota from Atlanta (Bufkin plus the other $2+mm it takes to match Holmes incoming for Atlanta)

Then the bigger trade has Atlanta sending Hunter to Minnesota and Capela to Dallas.  KAT goes to ATL and THJ goes to Minnesota.  This could wait until September and be one big aggregated trade, but the only thing that really changes is Atlanta doesn’t have to send out a fourth body (the small salary on top of Bufkin needed to match Holmes in the non-aggregated trade).

I kind of like this for everyone.  Holmes backs up Okongwu with KAT playing PF.  Minnesota could use THJ’s shooting.  Conley gives Bufkin a year to acclimate and Hunter and McDaniels are their starting wings.  The only role Anderson really plays here is buying a year for OMax to acclimate.  Capela is the same for Lively, but on a two year basis.

[mvossman]

I don't think your comps hold up. It's cherry-picking one aspect of the values in a trade, without including the rest.

For example, re the value of Holmes ---in taking Holmes, the pick being paid wasn't about the value of Holmes the player per se, but rather the value of the Mavs eating $12M of cap room for SAC this summer (and next summer too), since no player being sent in return. That swap tells us more about the value of cap room, and less about the value being placed on Holmes as a player.

These ideas don't have ATL taking on Holmes contract to create cap room for DAL, but rather a swap of cap obligations. In fact, ATL is the one getting payroll reduction (about 3M this season, and about 6M overall).

Re the value of Capela himself related to ANY trade -- in the draft day proposals, ATL's ask of Green (and also a pick swap) was not necessarily about the value of Capela at all, but rather the perceived diff in usefulness between Bertans and Capella. 
CAPELA for BERTANS, with Green/swap being the tip they asked.

That doesn't give us any indication of what Capela himself is worth to ATL overall, but only in relation to Bertans (who is not part of this trade idea). If they get back 2 lesser paid centers with differing styles and strengths, who they can use to back up Okongwu, and free up minutes for Okongwu by being rid of Capela, without having to pay someone to take Capela's contract off their payroll, and also reduce their overall payroll in the process, maybe it's enough.

I would add that I don't think Capela's price tag, whatever it is, is way far from what the Mavs have to offer. These talks would have put buried long ago if that was not the case imo. And I have to wonder if the issue at this point is more about getting past the Holmes trade restriction than anything else. They don't need Siakam to be incoming to want to move off of Capela and free up minutes for Okongwu and his smaller contract.

These are some good points.  I will try to better clarify my asset assessment:

Holmes was dumped for a first.  That may be more about cap space than the player, but the fact they had to pay a first to dump his salary says something about the value of that asset.  Nobody is going to want to take on Holmes 24 mil remaining.  It might not cost a first to trade him if salary is coming back, but it would cost something.  Either sending something else out or taking on an equally bad contract.  There is a question to what degree, but that contract is surely a negative asset.

So the proposed Capela trade did involve sending out one year of Bertans.  I would argue that value is less than either the pick swap or Green.  I know this board would go postal if we did either just to get off Bertans.  That means the ask for Capela was less than pick swap + Green but more than either one by themselves.  The pick swap is no longer available, so my math says the ask was for more than just Green (but less than Green + swap).

I realize in the interest of making a big trade, Atlanta might be willing to go down on their price, but I doubt they would be willing to go from Green+ to taking on (at least mildly) negative asset.  That means it is going to cost something.  I never suggested it was something we don't have, just that based on the evidence my assessment is that it will cost us something to make it happen.

As to Dan's point, I was not suggesting we should not do something like this.  Simply that it will cost something.  My guess would be a protected first, and I would need to know the details before I had a strong opinion about it.

[mvossman]

There is a ton of good perspective in this post.  Well done!

My only add is I wonder if it is the Bufkin deadline more than the Holmes deadline.  If this is a KAT trade instead of a Siakam trade, you can break it up in a way where Holmes doesn’t have to be aggregated.

Three way is Holmes to Atlanta/Anderson to Dallas and a couple of young guys to Minnesota from Atlanta (Bufkin plus the other $2+mm it takes to match Holmes incoming for Atlanta)

Then the bigger trade has Atlanta sending Hunter to Minnesota and Capela to Dallas.  KAT goes to ATL and THJ goes to Minnesota.  This could wait until September and be one big aggregated trade, but the only thing that really changes is Atlanta doesn’t have to send out a fourth body (the small salary on top of Bufkin needed to match Holmes in the non-aggregated trade).

I kind of like this for everyone.  Holmes backs up Okongwu with KAT playing PF.  Minnesota could use THJ’s shooting.  Conley gives Bufkin a year to acclimate and Hunter and McDaniels are their starting wings.  The only role Anderson really plays here is buying a year for OMax to acclimate.  Capela is the same for Lively, but on a two year basis.

This makes a lot of sense.  So my question to you is, how far would you be willing to go to make this happen?  Would you send out either of the kids?  Protected first?  How protected would it need to be to be worth it?

[SleepingHero]

This makes a lot of sense.  So my question to you is, how far would you be willing to go to make this happen?  Would you send out either of the kids?  Protected first?  How protected would it need to be to be worth it?

I genuinely believe adding Capela and yet another long defensive minded 4 would put this team straight into contention.

Luka/Exum
Kyrie/Curry/Hardy
Anderson/Green
G.Will/Maxi/Omax
Capela/Lively/Powell

This is arguably a 10 deep rotation. Adding a guy like Nowell or Oubre at this point for around the minimum could make it 11 deep. This team has options to  go super small or play big. Can even play 5 out very well or have a reasonable 5 guard lineup that isn't ludicrous depending on the matchup (center Luka will be shaq 2.0!)

So with that in mind, I'd be fine adding the 2027 first with minimal protections. I wouldn't entertain any deal involving the young guys as we're not the ones getting the star and I think that's reasonable. 

I know its easy to think adding the 2027 first with minimal protections is insane since the Mavs just missed the playoffs and we have no guarantees about the Luka+Kyrie pairing, but that roster right there is as strong as any team in the league. It'd be the first time since 2012 where I'd say the Mavs are 2-3 deep at every position and haven't cut corners at a position. I think the league will be put on notice as the Mavs have finally put significant talent around Luka.

[F Gump]

There is a ton of good perspective in this post.  Well done!

My only add is I wonder if it is the Bufkin deadline more than the Holmes deadline.  If this is a KAT trade instead of a Siakam trade, you can break it up in a way where Holmes doesn’t have to be aggregated.

Three way is Holmes to Atlanta/Anderson to Dallas and a couple of young guys to Minnesota from Atlanta (Bufkin plus the other $2+mm it takes to match Holmes incoming for Atlanta)

Then the bigger trade has Atlanta sending Hunter to Minnesota and Capela to Dallas.  KAT  to ATL and THJ goes to Minnesota.  This could wait until September and be one big aggregated trade, but the only thing that really changes is Atlanta doesn’t have to send out a fourth body (the small salary on top of Bufkin needed to match Holmes in the non-aggregated trade).

I kind of like this for everyone.  Holmes backs up Okongwu with KAT playing PF.  Minnesota could use THJ’s shooting.  Conley gives Bufkin a year to acclimate and Hunter and McDaniels are their starting wings.  The only role Anderson really plays here is buying a year for OMax to acclimate.  Capela is the same for Lively, but on a two year basis.

The idea that a 3-way can be done earlier -- that's an interesting option, with its own reasonable explanation for a wait. That date for trading Bufkin would be Aug 6.

I still like the basic concept of Holmes-McGee FOR Capela, as a standalone, whether within a larger trade or not. And while DAL does seem to want CC to a real degree, I find it quite possible that ATL may want to be out from under his contract just as much. One man's trash can be another man's treasure.
 
While ATL getting either PS or KAT certainly ratchets up their urgency, I'm not convinced that those stars will make or break ATL's eagerness to move Capela.

[mvossman]

I genuinely believe adding Capela and yet another long defensive minded 4 would put this team straight into contention.

Luka/Exum
Kyrie/Curry/Hardy
Anderson/Green
G.Will/Maxi/Omax
Capela/Lively/Powell

This is arguably a 10 deep rotation. Adding a guy like Nowell or Oubre at this point for around the minimum could make it 11 deep. This team has options to  go super small or play big. Can even play 5 out very well or have a reasonable 5 guard lineup that isn't ludicrous depending on the matchup (center Luka will be shaq 2.0!)

So with that in mind, I'd be fine adding the 2027 first with minimal protections. I wouldn't entertain any deal involving the young guys as we're not the ones getting the star and I think that's reasonable. 

I know its easy to think adding the 2027 first with minimal protections is insane since the Mavs just missed the playoffs and we have no guarantees about the Luka+Kyrie pairing, but that roster right there is as strong as any team in the league. It'd be the first time since 2012 where I'd say the Mavs are 2-3 deep at every position and haven't cut corners at a position. I think the league will be put on notice as the Mavs have finally put significant talent around Luka.

I don't think its crazy, but its probably more than I would go.  That trade will make us better, but I'm skeptical it will make us contenders, and its a short term move.  I like their current methodology of them spending big assets on long term pieces (Lively, Omax, Williams) and small assets on short term pieces (Curry, Powell).

[DanSchwartzgan]

This makes a lot of sense.  So my question to you is, how far would you be willing to go to make this happen?  Would you send out either of the kids?  Protected first?  How protected would it need to be to be worth it?

First, let me start by agreeing with Sleeping Hero.  Adding Capela and Anderson for THJ/Holmes would be a fantastic outcome.  Capela is that defensive anchor we need and we can bring Lively along slowly.  Anderson is the underrated part of this.  Part of why I liked the Bojan rumor is I think we need another initiator from the front court.  Anderson not only brings good D and can hit corner 3’s (low volume alert), but you can run some offense through him in the second unit with one of the stars sitting.  GWill and Green are excellent ‘ball-movers’.  Anderson is more than that.  Our ball movement might be really good at times.

Now, to your question…what is all that worth.  I’d be tempted to pay up a little for that specific outcome.  But, let’s pretend for a moment that we don’t ‘know’ any of the stuff you and FG have proffered.  In reality we don’t ‘know’ anything, so it is probably a good place to start.  You’ve said you think THJ for SLO-Mo is probably fair.  I would agree they are an “eye of the beholder” evaluation.  Minnesota probably needs more of what THJ provides and Dallas probably needs more of what Anderson provides.  Hardaway makes too much, but Anderson’s UFA status a year from now diminishes his value.  We could argue relative value for weeks, but an even swap seems reasonable (especially in light of the blow-up with Gobert).

So, we are down to Capela for Holmes.  Atlanta has to send out salary in any KAT deal and if you assume Capela has to be in the outgoing and Minnesota doesn’t want him (probably safe assumptions), then what is the cost for Atlanta to send out $42mm of Capela for $24mm of Holmes?   Yes, Dallas is getting the better player.  But, Dallas is also eating an extra $18mm in salary.  What is that worth?  Add in the fact that Atlanta needs this to happen if they want KAT and a $12mm backup center makes more sense than a $21mm backup center.  

When Capela was traded in February of 2020, the cost was a first in the next draft (the pick ahead of Josh Green), a second and a Nene for E. Turner swap of expiring players who would both be out of the league after that season.  So, a non-lottery first and a second.  Is Capela at his current age and contract under this CBA worth more or less than that?  I don’t think it is more.  If we are willing to forget all we think we know from draft night, this feels like a “weak first” (top 20 protected?  lottery protected at the most) with the conversion to the 2028 second if it doesn’t convey.  I really don’t see it including a kid.

---

I still like the basic concept of Holmes-McGee FOR Capela, as a standalone, whether within a larger trade or not. And while DAL does seem to want CC to a real degree, I find it quite possible that ATL may want to be out from under his contract just as much. One man's trash can be another man's treasure.
 

I’m less convinced than you that Atlanta would take Holmes and McGee for Capela.

[mvossman]

First, let me start by agreeing with Sleeping Hero.  Adding Capela and Anderson for THJ/Holmes would be a fantastic outcome.  Capela is that defensive anchor we need and we can bring Lively along slowly.  Anderson is the underrated part of this.  Part of why I liked the Bojan rumor is I think we need another initiator from the front court.  Anderson not only brings good D and can hit corner 3’s (low volume alert), but you can run some offense through him in the second unit with one of the stars sitting.  GWill and Green are excellent ‘ball-movers’.  Anderson is more than that.  Our ball movement might be really good at times.

Now, to your question…what is all that worth.  I’d be tempted to pay up a little for that specific outcome.  But, let’s pretend for a moment that we don’t ‘know’ any of the stuff you and FG have proffered.  In reality we don’t ‘know’ anything, so it is probably a good place to start.  You’ve said you think THJ for SLO-Mo is probably fair.  I would agree they are an “eye of the beholder” evaluation.  Minnesota probably needs more of what THJ provides and Dallas probably needs more of what Anderson provides.  Hardaway makes too much, but Anderson’s UFA status a year from now diminishes his value.  We could argue relative value for weeks, but an even swap seems reasonable (especially in light of the blow-up with Gobert).

So, we are down to Capela for Holmes.  Atlanta has to send out salary in any KAT deal and if you assume Capela has to be in the outgoing and Minnesota doesn’t want him (probably safe assumptions), then what is the cost for Atlanta to send out $42mm of Capela for $24mm of Holmes?   Yes, Dallas is getting the better player.  But, Dallas is also eating an extra $18mm in salary.  What is that worth?  Add in the fact that Atlanta needs this to happen if they want KAT and a $12mm backup center makes more sense than a $21mm backup center.  

When Capela was traded in February of 2020, the cost was a first in the next draft (the pick ahead of Josh Green), a second and a Nene for E. Turner swap of expiring players who would both be out of the league after that season.  So, a non-lottery first and a second.  Is Capela at his current age and contract under this CBA worth more or less than that?  I don’t think it is more.  If we are willing to forget all we think we know from draft night, this feels like a “weak first” (top 20 protected?  lottery protected at the most) with the conversion to the 2028 second if it doesn’t convey.  I really don’t see it including a kid.

Lottery protected is kind of where I land.  If we do this, does that limit us to a single tradeable first next offseason?  There is an opportunity cost here.  Even adding Capela I think this team is at least a year away, and the perfect long term piece might be available next offseason for the right price.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

For me, it's less about the player Capela than it's what it keeps you from possibly doing. In a vacuum, would I trade a protected FRP for Capela? Sure, I guess. Don't really care either way. However, based on the totality of the CBA and draft pick trade rules, is dealing for a 30yo declining center worth removing the ability to swing a blockbuster in the future? Hell no.

The Mavs are one season away from having the ability to deal 3 FRPs plus multiple pick swaps -- with teams willing to bet on those being Luka-less. They're also chalk full of young players. If the Mavs aren't hamstrung by yet another distant missing 1st gone, there's few teams who could beat them in terms of assets should something opportunistic appear. They just have to go one more year -- and make the playoffs -- to get there.

So I wish people would quit offering up 2027 like it's burning a hole in their pocket without seeing the bigger picture.

[F Gump]

I’m less convinced than you that Atlanta would take Holmes and McGee for Capela.

That's fair. 

But if we remove McGee and explore a McGee-Capella swap one-for-one, the salary does not trade match (and the cap implications are fairly significant in favor of ATL). So it requires SOME salary added to be legal, and even more to make it an even-money swap. McGee is really the only "filler" type of add-on the Mavs have (and he makes the trade legal, but still does NOT make the money swap even for DAL). Every other small DAL salary is either not trade-eligible, or of enough inherent value (Hardy or Green or the 2023 picks) that it skews the balance of the whole trade.

If ATL wants to discuss it, starting with a Capela-Holmes swap, then McGee is added to be filler (but ATL is still getting a cap boost for 2 years), and then let's fine tune a bit further with a small tweak via small value in a pick, let's talk. But not convinced that Capela as a 2-year band-aid moves the needle enough to go beyond that sort of discussion.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Y'all, we're not getting Anderson and Capela for THJ/McGee/Holmes/27PFRP

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

If MIN was going after Naz, they know they can't gp far with the combo of J.Allen/Mobley.  Wood would be a great combo with Mobley.  J.Allen is young enough and has a nice contract to start him the next 2 years and make a decision between him and Lively in 2 years, J.Allen's contact year.

Something like J.Allen/Wade for Wood/THJ/27FRP.

[SleepingHero]

Y'all, we're not getting Anderson and Capela for THJ/McGee/Holmes/27PFRP

Are you presuming that Capela is worth more than a FRP? Anderson is worth more than THJ? Vice versa?

Both guys individually would never even broach a 2027 FRP value alone. Together they still don't really come close. McGee is the natural tipping point that makes the deal even. Holmes is to match salary.

[mvossman]

If MIN was going after Naz, they know they can't gp far with the combo of J.Allen/Mobley.  Wood would be a great combo with Mobley.  J.Allen is young enough and has a nice contract to start him the next 2 years and make a decision between him and Lively in 2 years, J.Allen's contact year.

Something like J.Allen/Wade for Wood/THJ/27FRP.

If this was an option, it would have made way more sense to do it prior to the draft.  I think those conversations were had (there were Allen rumors) but it went nowhere.  Not sure why it would be different now.  In fact, we would be less likely to do it now given that we just drafted a center in the lottery.

[Mapka]

I could be convinced we could do an Anderson for Timmy swap, but Holmes is also a distressed asset (we just got a first to take on that contract) and the ask for Capela was Green or Hardy.  The price may go down a little in order to facilitate a big trade, but they are not going to go from Hardy or Green to distressed asset and a couple of seconds.  At least I find it very unlikely, and I don't like to get my hopes up on that kind of thing.

You've forgotten, that before the draft our distressed asset was Bertans and we didn't like that deal.

[mvossman]

You've forgotten, that before the draft our distressed asset was Bertans and we didn't like that deal.

I'm not sure what this means?  Wood and Timmy were available to trade (along with the first) prior to the draft.  We could have easily pulled this trade off before the draft.  We could have still made the Bertans move during the draft.  For that matter, we could have done the Holmes trade as well.  Let him duke it out with Powell for backup center minutes.  Then we still have OMax and whoever we pick at 12 (probably not Lively if we have Allen).  We could have made all the moves now, only we would have a different lottery pick and have about 2 mil less available below the apron.  Maybe with Timmy gone we sign Derrick Jones Jr and stretch waive McGee to stay under the tax.  That is an A+ offseason regardless of who we draft at 12, but it didn't happen and I seriously doubt it will now.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Are you presuming that Capela is worth more than a FRP? Anderson is worth more than THJ? Vice versa?

Both guys individually would never even broach a 2027 FRP value alone. Together they still don't really come close. McGee is the natural tipping point that makes the deal even. Holmes is to match salary.

Indeed Anderson is worth more than THJ.  His contract is 52% of THJ.  Much better defender.  Actual SF as opposed to a tweener.  Minny would laugh at a straight up trade.

Holmes (dead money to the point he was traded with a FRP), McGee (dead money), and a FRP for Capela?  ATL would have a good chuckle at that.

I would be all about Anderson, but just don't think THJ would be enough.

Why, however, go after Capela when J.Allen is probably available for a stretch big?

[mvossman]

Indeed Anderson is worth more than THJ.  His contract is 52% of THJ.  Much better defender.  Actual SF as opposed to a tweener.  Minny would laugh at a straight up trade.

Holmes (dead money to the point he was traded with a FRP), McGee (dead money), and a FRP for Capela?  ATL would have a good chuckle at that.

I would be all about Anderson, but just don't think THJ would be enough.

Why, however, go after Capela when J.Allen is probably available for a stretch big?

You are making a huge assumption that Allen is available for a stretch big.  You stated the package above is not near enough for Capela, but then propose a similar trade for Allen, who is way more valuable than Capela.  I have no idea why you think the two would be comparable value.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

If this was an option, it would have made way more sense to do it prior to the draft.  I think those conversations were had (there were Allen rumors) but it went nowhere.  Not sure why it would be different now.  In fact, we would be less likely to do it now given that we just drafted a center in the lottery.

Best case scenario is Lively gets 18mins as a backup.  Again, we have to contend now to keep Luka here and happy.  Waiting 2-3 to years to see *if Lively is a starting C is too risky.

Kyrie, Hardy
Green, Curry
Luka, OMax
G.Williams, Maxi, Wade
J.Allen, Powell, Lively

That's a contending rotation.

---

You are making a huge assumption that Allen is available for a stretch big.  You stated the package above is not near enough for Capela, but then propose a similar trade for Allen, who is way more valuable than Capela.  I have no idea why you think the two would be comparable value.

#fakenews...  I said McGee/Holmes/FRP wasn't enough for Capela.