MAVS NEWS:

[mvossman]

@Mavs_FFL
Report: Quentin Grimes rejected a similar deal at the extension deadline that Naji Marshall received. 3 year $27 million, per Stein

That’s right were I figured Dallas would be and Grimes probably wanted something closer to Green extension.  Makes sense for Dallas. Grimes is taking a risk, but not crazy to bet on himself

[Chicagojk]

@Mavs_FFL
Report: Quentin Grimes rejected a similar deal at the extension deadline that Naji Marshall received. 3 year $27 million, per Stein

I may be completely off and I have done no research, but it feels like this range (9-12 million) is going to be the sweet spot for solid veterans moving forward.    I know the MLE is going up higher than this but very few teams used MLE money this offseason.

It just feels like you have the minimum to near minimum guys than on the other hand you have the stars who will be above 30 and up to 60 eventually.    The middle gets dragged a little and they are below 20 and probably below 15 for most cases.   

Interesting gamble for Grimes.   A good year maybe gets him to 15 right?   Although for a guy joining his third team and also had some knee injuries it is a interesting gamble.    27 million would have at least given him security regardless of how his career goes from here.

[F Gump]

I think that an offer for GRIMES has to aim at a number that you think he is likely to get next summer, with a discount.
.....

My guess is that if there's a deal, it ends up being for 3 years, and starts in the 7-10M range for 1st year salary.

Actual Grimes offer, apparently: 3 years, starting salary 8.33M. 

For comparative purposes, MLE is expected to be 14.1M.

It's very early, but the player we are seeing so far sure doesn't look like an MLE-value player. Or 8.33M value, either, imo. He looks more like "an undesirable contract you have to take in return if you want us to take THJ's salary."

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

@Mavs_FFL
Report: Quentin Grimes rejected a similar deal at the extension deadline that Naji Marshall received. 3 year $27 million, per Stein

Good.  That's means he'll either ball this year or he gets half that (if we even want him) if he doesn't ball.  Stupid move for him, great situation for us.

[SleepingHero]

Actual Grimes offer, apparently: 3 years, starting salary 8.33M. 

For comparative purposes, MLE is expected to be 14.1M.

It's very early, but the player we are seeing so far sure doesn't look like an MLE-value player. Or 8.33M value, either, imo. He looks more like "an undesirable contract you have to take in return if you want us to take THJ's salary."

You were definitely closer to what the Mavs actually offered. But lets see what Grimes actually signs for at the end of the season. I believe it's going to be closer to that MLE value than you think.

Once he gets his chance, I really think Grimes will prove to be invaluable to the team.

[fifteenth]

You were definitely closer to what the Mavs actually offered. But lets see what Grimes actually signs for at the end of the season. I believe it's going to be closer to that MLE value than you think.

Once he gets his chance, I really think Grimes will prove to be invaluable to the team.

Wow, that's quite a word. What makes you think that?

I don't know the player really, just watched highlights when we got him.

[SleepingHero]

Wow, that's quite a word. What makes you think that?

I don't know the player really, just watched highlights when we got him.

When he was actually getting minutes on a Thibs Knick team, he showed to be a 2-way force with consistent 3pt shooting. 

So much so the Knicks outright refused to include him as a foundational piece for a Donovan Mitchell trade. He showed so much promise that the Knicks said "We want Mitchell, but there are only 2 untouchable guys on the roster, and he's one of them." 

As a starter, he had multiple 7-10 game stretches where he averaged 20+ppg on 50/45/90 averages with great defense in his 2nd year. His 3rd year he got off to a shaky start due to a wrist injury, which led to Thibs starting Donte DiVencenzo. He then got hurt again with a pretty nasty bone bruise/knee sprain and was traded for Bojan+Burks.


Grimes' biggest downsides are his injury history. But his upside could still potentially be a guy that flirts with all-star recognition. Like a Desmond Bane. He's shown he could have stretches of that before an injury derailed his process.

So I'm a big believer in him, especially next to Luka.

[fifteenth]

When he was actually getting minutes on a Thibs Knick team, he showed to be a 2-way force with consistent 3pt shooting. 

So much so the Knicks outright refused to include him as a foundational piece for a Donovan Mitchell trade. He showed so much promise that the Knicks said "We want Mitchell, but there are only 2 untouchable guys on the roster, and he's one of them." 

As a starter, he had multiple 7-10 game stretches where he averaged 20+ppg on 50/45/90 averages with great defense in his 2nd year. His 3rd year he got off to a shaky start due to a wrist injury, which led to Thibs starting Donte DiVencenzo. He then got hurt again with a pretty nasty bone bruise/knee sprain and was traded for Bojan+Burks.


Grimes' biggest downsides are his injury history. But his upside could still potentially be a guy that flirts with all-star recognition. Like a Desmond Bane. He's shown he could have stretches of that before an injury derailed his process.

So I'm a big believer in him, especially next to Luka.

Cool. I hope he can get his mojo back

[Chicagojk]

I think it is wise to give the team at least 30 games for a more complete evaluation...especially with the new guys.

I wasn't super familiar with Grimes' game outside of some distant games and he did play well against the Mavs two years ago.

I want to be opportunistic he can be productive here. He role will be different than Josh Green, but I hope he fills a similar role. Spread the floor and hit open shots and play above average defense (I hope he is better at Green with this). Then do the glue stuff that helps teams win.

In the early viewing in preseason and two short runs in the regular season, I feel he is a little too aggressive looking for his shot. I don't think that is his role. We already have enough guys who are looking for their shots. His role may be to take 14 shots one game and 3 the next. At least that is my vision. If true, can he be productive on limited shots?

[mvossman]

I think it is wise to give the team at least 30 games for a more complete evaluation...especially with the new guys.

I wasn't super familiar with Grimes' game outside of some distant games and he did play well against the Mavs two years ago.

I want to be opportunistic he can be productive here.  He role will be different than Josh Green, but I hope he fills a similar role.  Spread the floor and hit open shots and play above average defense (I hope he is better at Green with this).  Then do the glue stuff that helps teams win.

In the early viewing in preseason and two short runs in the regular season, I feel he is a little too aggressive looking for his shot.  I don't think that is his role.  We already have enough guys who are looking for their shots.  His role may be to take 14 shots one game and 3 the next.  At least that is my vision.    If true, can he be productive on limited shots?

Honestly his biggest value is that he can shoot 3s at high volume and decent efficiency.  He is the perfect backup for Klay (although you can easily have both on the floor together) as a movement shooter that can play defense.  Hardy has kind of played that role through two games, but long term Hardy makes more sense in a Kyrie backup role.

[F Gump]

I understand the thoughts that have good expectations about who Grimes is. However, not only have we not seen that sort of player in his production, I'm not even seeing something that looks like he has those hoped-for skills that have MLE potential. I definitely see no reason to believe he's a high efficiency shooter down the road, from both the results and the shot selection.

I see a poor man's Exum, in what he does on the floor, with some okay defensive skills (although not a lock down defender) and a willingness to shoot (which hopefully will show better results eventually, but so far doesn't go in).

In the BEST outcome I can envision, that ceiling doesn't get anywhere near the MLE. imo

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

^ Two years ago, as a 22yr old, Grimes put up similar stats as when DorianFS got his contract. That’s why everyone is excited about Grimes. He has the archetype of a player you want next to Luka and he’s shown that potential before. I bet two years ago no one would have predicted Derrick White being a $125 million player.

That being said, even as a big Grimes supporter, he was both injured and lost his confidence last year. Each thing by itself can ruin a young players career. He is definitely a risk coming off last season. I felt he needed to get off to a quick start this year and he hasn’t.

So when you say you can’t see even best case scenario why Grimes would be a MLE level player, I disagree. I think everyone did the right thing here. The Mavs made an offer that took that risk into account. Grimes decided to bet on himself.

[mvossman]

I understand the thoughts that have good expectations about who Grimes is. However, not only have we not seen that sort of player in his production, I'm not even seeing something that looks like he has those hoped-for skills that have MLE potential. I definitely see no reason to believe he's a high efficiency shooter down the road, from both the results and the shot selection.

I see a poor man's Exum, in what he does on the floor, with some okay defensive skills (although not a lock down defender) and a willingness to shoot (which hopefully will show better results eventually, but so far doesn't go in).

In the BEST outcome I can envision, that ceiling doesn't get anywhere near the MLE. imo

Exum is a strange comp.  They are very different players.  Exum has a harder time pulling the trigger than Green from deep.  

Personally I plan on giving it more than 21 regular season minutes before making any kind of assessment.  This board loved Grant Willians for the first two weeks of last season.

[F Gump]

^ Two years ago, as a 22yr old, Grimes put up similar stats as when DorianFS got his contract. That’s why everyone is excited about Grimes. He has the archetype of a player you want next to Luka and he’s shown that potential before. I bet two years ago no one would have predicted Derrick White being a $125 million player.

That being said, even as a big Grimes supporter, he was both injured and lost his confidence last year. Each thing by itself can ruin a young players career. He is definitely a risk coming off last season. I felt he needed to get off to a quick start this year and he hasn’t.

So when you say you can’t see even best case scenario why Grimes would be a MLE level player, I disagree. I think everyone did the right thing here. The Mavs made an offer that took that risk into account. Grimes decided to bet on himself.

Fair enough. You see far more potential from what he's shown than I do (and see his track record in a much different light than I do). Hope you're right - but what I see is what I see.

[mvossman]

Fair enough. You see far more potential from what he's shown than I do (and see his track record in a much different light than I do). Hope you're right - but what I see is what I see.

I hope so too.  I have been wrong plenty of times before.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

^ Two years ago, as a 22yr old, Grimes put up similar stats as when DorianFS got his contract. That’s why everyone is excited about Grimes. He has the archetype of a player you want next to Luka and he’s shown that potential before. I bet two years ago no one would have predicted Derrick White being a $125 million player.

That being said, even as a big Grimes supporter, he was both injured and lost his confidence last year. Each thing by itself can ruin a young players career. He is definitely a risk coming off last season. I felt he needed to get off to a quick start this year and he hasn’t.

So when you say you can’t see even best case scenario why Grimes would be a MLE level player, I disagree. I think everyone did the right thing here. The Mavs made an offer that took that risk into account. Grimes decided to bet on himself.

He did us a favor by declining the offer.  He'll either ball out this year (not looking good so far) or we can (if we want) to sign him at a discount

[Smitty]

The argument I’m making is that minutes and usage are two different things. The Mavs have to find more ways to get the ball out of Luka’s hands while still being effective. To this point, they’ve never had the personnel to be competitive without Luka initiating nearly every half court possession with high PnR or ISO. I don’t think anyone in the history of the NBA could play 37+ mpg with a usage rate of 37% year after year.

Even Harden, who Luka is compared to often, has a career usage rate of 29%. It’d be one thing of it were for a season, but I think there’s no way he can keep it up and stay healthy for an entire season, let alone a career.

@Boweman55
small sample size alert, but, luka doncic's usage rate through four games is 33.7 percent. it would be the second-lowest mark of his career.

[SleepingHero]

[Scott41theMavs]

Wait a minute, I thought that the lower the defensive efficiency, the better?

[SleepingHero]

Wait a minute, I thought that the lower the defensive efficiency, the better?

Yeah McMahon is kind of funny using net ratings to paint a picture that Klay is not the best defensively (as is implied by last 2 sentences).




current net ratings for everyone on here.  Klay +Kyrie have the best net ratings for our main rotation guys by a lot. 

But to start using net ratings as a stat at all in 4 games is like trying to call a winner in a marathon 2 miles in.

Some more:

Nick Angstadt (@NickVanExit)
Way too early but... in 111 possessions...

Mavs Starting 5: Luka, Kyrie, Klay, PJ, Gafford

119.8 Offensive Rating (67th Percentile)
109.0 Defensive Rating (58th)
+10.8 Net Rating (58th Percentile)

Above average across the board.