TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[sterlingmallory]

https://twitter.com/627zach/status/1606327477634113544?t=wbg-m8t3UNPcw6cVJG0GCw&s=19

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/627zach/status/1606327477634113544?t=wbg-m8t3UNPcw6cVJG0GCw&s=19

This stinks of desperation and terrifies me as a fan. I hope they do not dig themselves deeper into a hole.

[KillerLeft]

This stinks of desperation and terrifies me as a fan. I hope they do not dig themselves deeper into a hole.

They might just do that. But, maybe they'll make a good deal, for a change?

[Bayliss]

The Mavs can add a second star through the draft.  But do you honestly trust the Mavs at talent evaluation and caring enough to do their due diligence with the draft?

I don't have any faith in them drafting.  

My friend was telling me a story about Erik Spoelstra's dad:

In 1983, his expertise helped Portland make the strangest trade in NBA history. Needing a point guard to fill a hole created by injury, Portland acquired veteran Don Buse from the Indiana Pacers. The compensation to the Pacers wasn't a player, but one week of Spoelstra's time as a management consultant.

Can the Mavs do something like that with an executive from Toronto, or San Antonio?  They will give the executive back after the draft.....

[dynamicalVoid]

Riverboat Bob must have seen this coming based on a podcast he did with Simmons(I believe)...He claimed Mavs are going to be too quick triggered for a trade instead of patient and waiting(I assume until 2024 is what he was suggesting).

I dont know what I am talking about...just regurgitating what I have read from this Board about a Bob V. quote.

[Kammrath]

They might just do that. But, maybe they'll make a good deal, for a change?

My faith in the IIC is as low as ever. Even if they make a good trade, I do not trust the acquired players to be used properly.

[ItsGoTime]

The Mavs can add a second star through the draft.  But do you honestly trust the Mavs at talent evaluation and caring enough to do their due diligence with the draft?

I don't have any faith in them drafting.  

My friend was telling me a story about Erik Spoelstra's dad:





Can the Mavs do something like that with an executive from Toronto, or San Antonio?  They will give the executive back after the draft.....

Jerry West is either a consultant or retired at this point. Money whip him into consulting through the end of the year.

[Kammrath]

Can the Mavs do something like that with an executive from Toronto, or San Antonio?  They will give the executive back after the draft.....

Such a move would require the self-awareness and humility to see their own ignorance, blindness, and ineptitude. Nico might have the humility, but Cuban and Kidd are two of the most arrogant people in the NBA.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I agree. He's young, and much closer to Barnes' timeline. 

It's only my logic, and not reporting, so I could be way off here, but FVV and Siakim are kind of in Barnes' way a little, so if they're really thinking about reshaping their roster I'd bet those will be the first two names dangled. Who knows if they even are thinking that way, however.

Looks like they’re putting Scottie Barnes on notice.

[KillerLeft]

Looks like they’re putting Scottie Barnes on notice.

What do you mean, pal?

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

What do you mean, pal?

whoops

https://www.thestar.com/sports/raptors/o...-star.html

---

Such a move would require the self-awareness and humility to see their own ignorance, blindness, and ineptitude. Nico might have the humility, but Cuban and Kidd are two of the most arrogant people in the NBA.

Welcome to the dark side.

[Kammrath]

Welcome to the dark side.

Dude, I have been on the dark side all year. I didn't think anything could be worse than the Cuban/Donnie/RC dysfunction but the Cuban/Kidd dysfunction said, "Hold my beer."

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'm getting more and more amenable to this Ayton thing as time passes (which means it's a waste of time, because what I want to see happen almost never does). 

I'm still a little concerned about giving up first round picks for a player who can't really create offense for himself and others. As @"omahen" said yesterday, that's what they need more than anything else, and if they do another big draft capital deal for another big who will end up being a complementary player (albeit a much better one than my initial reaction assumed yesterday), I can easily envision a chance that, while the center position will be figured out (we hope) the overall roster and asset cache to improve it might be far worse than it is today, even. 

Defensively, I think he helps a ton after doing some light investigating. Loads of help on that end. And, offensively, he's got the tools to be a great complementary player to Luka. I think it was @"Bayliss" who said he can't punish smaller players after switches, and I still agree with that, so I think we'd be signing up to watch a ton of Luka step back 3's against bigs (especially since Ayton can't take his man too far out of the paint). 

I don't know. Very conflicted. Tell me they can get him for one first, somehow (probably can't - two might be dreaming, the way the market has been going) and I'm in.

Like I said originally, this just feels like a Dallas trade.  As McMahon said, you have to do something to make things work next to Luka.  Those two picks won’t really matter if you hold onto them and lose Luka in the process.

I do think Ayton can punish smaller players.  His mid-range game is fantastic and would crush the strategy of doubling Luka.  Imagine him in the short roll position with his ability to shoot a mid-range, post up or pass to the wing.  The percentages he’d shoot in those situations would be too high for teams to even think about taking the ball out of Luka’s hands.  He sets really strong picks, better than Powell I think (I probably set better picks than Wood), which would make Luka’s life much easier.  If you are an opposing team and Dallas gets a big switched onto Luka and a small switched onto Ayton, what are you going to do.  You have to bring at least one double team.  But who do you double?  And, you’ve just left someone wide open in the corner.  We’ve got to get some more paint touches and inside-out offense and Ayton’s post game and passing helps with that too.  Offense would be fantastic and we haven’t even started on the defensive advantages Ayton brings.

Something that might help you feel better about such a deal would be Dallas shipping Crowder to a third team for something younger rather than keeping him.  There are some interesting rumors out there.  Philly seems like a very logical destination for Crowder.  The rumor there is Thybulle, Niang and 28th pick in the 2021 draft Jaden Springer who’s calling card is on-ball defense.  Niang and Thybulle are both free agents this summer, but you’d have RFA rights on Thybulle.  In my mind you are replacing Good on-ball D in Bullock with Great on-ball D with Thybulle.  Yeah, you hope Bullock will hit the occasional three and you know Thybulle won’t.  I’m not sure knowing he won’t isn’t better than hoping Bullock will and being disappointed.  Niang is a dead eye shooter from three.  Springer is an intriguing defensive prospect who moves the ball well but hasn’t developed much of an outside shot…yet.

This is 16 players, so someone has to go.  You haven’t touched a single starter except for the Wood/Ayton swap.  You haven’t touched Maxi or Green or Hardy either (and added a young prospect in Springer to the Hardy/Green youth movement).  You replaced Bullock with Thybulle, Wood with Ayton and gave yourself another shooter at PF in place of Powell (Maxi becomes the backup C and won’t be required to play a ton of minutes since Ayton will get 28-30).  You can go all in on a nasty defensive lineup with DFS, Green and Thybulle joining Luka and either of the centers.  You’ve also preserved the ability to play 5-out with Maxi, Luka and more than enough shooters.

Ayton.    Maxi.         McGee
DFS.      Niang.        Bertans
THJ.       Thybulle.    Frank/Pinson
SD.        Green.       Hardy
Luka.     Walker.       Springer

[DanSchwartzgan]

I believe Lowe and Marks were saying in Lowe's podcast that Siakam would be eligible for the supermax once his contract is up if he makes an all NBA team this year, which isn't out of the question. That's another thing to keep in mind with him besides his age.

And that is the reason he might be on the block.  He’s made an all-NBA team two of the last three years, but he doesn’t have the years yet.  He gets there after this season.  This summer (if he makes all-NBA again because the first one will roll off from counting), he’ll have enough service to do a Designated Veteran extension for $290mm.  If he doesn’t make all-NBA, he can do a regular extension or wait a year and bet that he’ll qualify as a Designated Veteran again in the summer of 2024. 

This kind of reminds me of Cousins and Sacramento a few years ago.  The Kings clearly didn’t want to hitch their wagon to Cousins making that kind of money and traded him before it got to that point.  Toronto is the only team that can give Siakam that contract, but it is difficult to argue with player and agent that he doesn’t deserve it given the fact he would have made three of the last four all-NBA teams if he qualifies.  Better to trade him now and avoid that nastiness than to trade a clearly disgruntled player who is pissed because he wasn’t valued.

Seems like Ayton and Siakam would be a logical trade, but Toronto can’t do that next to a non-shooter like Barnes.  Thus, you get the Raptors sniffing around Turner instead.  I’m not sure I buy this Toronto tear-it-down talk.  I suspect it is more a matter of wanting to retool around Barnes and OG and finding players who are more age and salary appropriate than what they have in Siakam and maybe FVV.

[KillerLeft]

I do think Ayton can punish smaller players.  His mid-range game is fantastic and would crush the strategy of doubling Luka.  Imagine him in the short roll position with his ability to shoot a mid-range, post up or pass to the wing.  The percentages he’d shoot in those situations would be too high for teams to even think about taking the ball out of Luka’s hands.  He sets really strong picks, better than Powell I think (I probably set better picks than Wood), which would make Luka’s life much easier.  If you are an opposing team and Dallas gets a big switched onto Luka and a small switched onto Ayton, what are you going to do.  You have to bring at least one double team.  But who do you double?  And, you’ve just left someone wide open in the corner.  We’ve got to get some more paint touches and inside-out offense and Ayton’s post game and passing helps with that too.  Offense would be fantastic and we haven’t even started on the defensive advantages Ayton brings.

There's a lot of truth here. Thanks for the analysis. 

Where I'll push back a little is that while I agree with you (after reading about and watching a little more Ayton) that his mid-range game is pretty polished (he's like the quintessential 2012 center, which I don't mean as a dig) and that this would be effective at beating the traps Luka sees at times...I think what we've seen lately is that most teams don't use that tactic so much anymore. The book on how to beat the Mavs seems to be:

1) Switch every Luka ball screen - don't give him a sliver of daylight to drive (off of the action), lob to a rim runner or throw that behind the back to a popper. This seems to have been rule #1 in the "how to defend the Mavs" handbook since Carlisle's last season, and each year more and more teams are catching on. 

(FWIW, I totally agree about the screens - they are underrated, and might help the Mavs impose their offensive design on teams a bit more, regardless of how the other team is defending)

2) After the switch, play Luka 1-on-1. Yeah, he might hang 40-50 on you, but in the meantime, nobody else is touching the ball, nobody else is in rhythm, he's going to dribble for at least 15-20 seconds every possession and you're at least going to be able to keep it close. If you can, implement steps #1 and #2 without helping off of his shooters. 

This is why the Mavs tend to end up playing so much 5-out at the ends of seasons, because it makes driving much easier for Luka which, in turn, makes it nearly impossible for the defense not to help off of the shooters - Add ONE offensive body (and his defender) within 10 feet of the basket and that defender can make both the driving lanes and passing lanes much more risky and less predictable. 

Now, is this state of affairs due to nobody else on the team being good enough to present a more diverse solution for this defensive approach? Is it that the coach hasn't implemented a better plan for such circumstances? Is Luka taking it upon himself to dominate the ball for entire games in these situations out of some young mindset that "nobody else gives us the opportunity to score here that I do"? I would submit that probably a combo of all three is to blame. Just my opinion. 

What I think the Mavs need, above all else, is someone who A) can function in the Mavs' already established offensive system (the greatness that is causing #1 and #2 but that we can't really see anymore because of #1 and #2) but who B) offers an ALTERNATIVE to Luka going 1-on-1 against whomever has switched onto him. What we've gotten instead is a convoluted series of switches designed to allow Luka to choose who he gets to try to beat off of the dribble. (I think Ayton would be amazing in capacity A, but feel he would be underwhelming in capacity B, to the point where Luka wouldn't even give him the ball). 

I, personally, haven't seen an indication yet that Ayton can take a man down into the post, call for the ball and dominate. I could be wrong, but that's my issue. Since he also can't take his man all the way above the break at the wing or to corner, I think he's basically going to bring some of the same issues (along with some of the same underrated strengths) Powell does. 

And I don't mean this to be a dig on Ayton at all. You and some others really have moved the needle on my opinion of him. I agree with almost everything you said above.

[F Gump]

Jerry West is either a consultant or retired at this point. Money whip him into consulting through the end of the year.

West would be great. But he is in the FO of LAC, and is the guy behind their expert player evaluation and acquisition.

With him there, they pulled off the signing of Kawhi, the trade for P George, and all the astute moves since, one after another, to keep an abundant barrel of wisely-priced team-committed talent around them. It's all a Jerry West production. But with Ballmer's deep pockets, and his LA roots, no way to hire him away.

Before that, he was the brains behind the GS rise. Before that, MEM rose from nowhere with him pulling the strings.

Quite the genius.

[KillerLeft]

You replaced Bullock with Thybulle

Also, and I don't mean to nitpick your fine work, because nobody can craft these deals like you, this is one of the few ways the Mavs could include Bullock in a deal that might result in me missing him afterwards. 

If Thybulle was a solution here, we'd know it, because Ntilikina would be in the (fully healthy) rotation already. It's quite clear (imo) that for all the complaining we do (myself included) about needing real perimeter defenders, there simply isn't room for one who can't shoot or dribble. I know you disagree with this, and I respect your opinion, so I'm not trying to draw you into some huge debate about it. But, the bottom line is that I have less than zero interest in Thybulle, despite having respect for his defensive abilities.

[KillerLeft]

This kind of reminds me of Cousins and Sacramento a few years ago.  The Kings clearly didn’t want to hitch their wagon to Cousins making that kind of money and traded him before it got to that point.  Toronto is the only team that can give Siakam that contract, but it is difficult to argue with player and agent that he doesn’t deserve it given the fact he would have made three of the last four all-NBA teams if he qualifies.  Better to trade him now and avoid that nastiness than to trade a clearly disgruntled player who is pissed because he wasn’t valued.

Spot on, imo. Siakim is just good enough to qualify for and feel deserving of a huge deal, while not quite being good enough to be THE cornerstone building block of a contending team.

I think he's closer than Cousins was, and so a team like the Kings (especially at that time) might have actually given him the deal, even though they were smart enough not to go down that road with Cousins. But, I have a hunch that Ujiri, Nurse and the Raptors will not choose to do so with Siakim. They're smart enough to get that type of evaluation right.

[F Gump]

Like I said originally, this just feels like a Dallas trade.  As McMahon said, you have to do something to make things work next to Luka.  Those two picks won’t really matter if you hold onto them and lose Luka in the process.

I do think Ayton can punish smaller players.  His mid-range game is fantastic and would crush the strategy of doubling Luka.  Imagine him in the short roll position with his ability to shoot a mid-range, post up or pass to the wing.  The percentages he’d shoot in those situations would be too high for teams to even think about taking the ball out of Luka’s hands.  He sets really strong picks, better than Powell I think (I probably set better picks than Wood), which would make Luka’s life much easier.  If you are an opposing team and Dallas gets a big switched onto Luka and a small switched onto Ayton, what are you going to do.  You have to bring at least one double team.  But who do you double?  And, you’ve just left someone wide open in the corner.  We’ve got to get some more paint touches and inside-out offense and Ayton’s post game and passing helps with that too.  Offense would be fantastic and we haven’t even started on the defensive advantages Ayton brings.

Something that might help you feel better about such a deal would be Dallas shipping Crowder to a third team for something younger rather than keeping him.  There are some interesting rumors out there.  Philly seems like a very logical destination for Crowder.  The rumor there is Thybulle, Niang and 28th pick in the 2021 draft Jaden Springer who’s calling card is on-ball defense.  Niang and Thybulle are both free agents this summer, but you’d have RFA rights on Thybulle.  In my mind you are replacing Good on-ball D in Bullock with Great on-ball D with Thybulle.  Yeah, you hope Bullock will hit the occasional three and you know Thybulle won’t.  I’m not sure knowing he won’t isn’t better than hoping Bullock will and being disappointed.  Niang is a dead eye shooter from three.  Springer is an intriguing defensive prospect who moves the ball well but hasn’t developed much of an outside shot…yet.

This is 16 players, so someone has to go.  You haven’t touched a single starter except for the Wood/Ayton swap.  You haven’t touched Maxi or Green or Hardy either (and added a young prospect in Springer to the Hardy/Green youth movement).  You replaced Bullock with Thybulle, Wood with Ayton and gave yourself another shooter at PF in place of Powell (Maxi becomes the backup C and won’t be required to play a ton of minutes since Ayton will get 28-30).  You can go all in on a nasty defensive lineup with DFS, Green and Thybulle joining Luka and either of the centers.  You’ve also preserved the ability to play 5-out with Maxi, Luka and more than enough shooters.

Ayton.    Maxi.         McGee
DFS.      Niang.        Bertans
THJ.       Thybulle.    Frank/Pinson
SD.        Green.       Hardy
Luka.     Walker.       Springer

This is interesting analysis of the idea of
Ayton-Crowder FOR
Wood, Powell, Bullock, picks

While the Philly inclusion is also interesting, I am stepping past because I don't think it fits Sixers' biggest trade incentive, which would be to slip below the tax line. They are tantalizingly close, and getting tax free is how Morey typically operates at TDL. The 3-for-1 doesn't do the trick, and in fact takes them in the wrong direction by maybe another mill or more (after factoring in the cost of filling those empty slots). I do think there might be a window of opportunity there to land a talent, and it might be something to tack onto a different primary deal, but only if the cap result can be different for the Sixers.

As to the main course, I am hesitant on Ayton. He's definitely better than Wood, of course. But my recollection is that he was played off the floor in the playoffs -- so did I misremember? I don't want my max-salary center to be unplayable when it counts, even if he is generally better defensively than Wood. OTOH, if he can legit guard all over the floor (like Bam, say), then I think he'd be worth the investment including picks.

As a side note, I think the Mavs definitely need a TWO-way wing (imo Crowder is not close to being that guy) and another really good playmaker (ala Brunson) in a big way, and if I had solutions for those as well, using my assets for a C would probably be my last choice of the 3. So if I was shopping, that would be part of my thinking while considering this.

[omahen]

Thybulle

One thing I don't understand. How can a team survive and cherrish Tucker in the line-up but can't survive with Thybulle? What I don't see?

Sure Tucker can shoot better from three, but on a such a ridiculously low volume that it doesn't even matter. I think Thybulle is even better defender than Tucker, who at his age I don't think can still be a defensive stopper.