02-11-2020, 10:57 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2020, 03:48 AM by DanSchwartzgan.)
Interesting story from John Hollinger regarding summer free agency: https://theathletic.com/1599459/2020/02/...s-clearer/
They go team by team and talk about what kind of money they will have. They also talk about who might be available. Let's deal with the latter first. He mentions Ingram, VanVleet, Bogdanovic and Beasley as RFA's very likely to stay with their home teams. Here is how he classifies the best of the rest:
"Among unrestricted free agents, Toronto’s Fred VanVleet and Oklahoma City’s Danilo Gallinari are the two main attractions. Orlando’s Evan Fournier seems likely to opt out of his deal and would rank third on this list. Boston’s Gordon Hayward and San Antonio’s DeMar DeRozan could also join the party by opting out of the final seasons of their deals, but for each, an opt-in appears the better strategy; their respective teams could also “opt-in and extend” after the season. One level down, Dallas’ Tim Hardaway Jr. is another opt-out wild card.
OK, that’s a lame A-List, but here’s the good news: Most of the league will be operating with the mid-level exception (an estimated $9.755M next season).
At that level and points just above and below, the market looks much frothier. A number of good second-line players — including unrestricted free agents Davis Bertans, Jordan Clarkson, Montrezl Harrell, Marcus Morris, Hassan Whiteside, Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Joe Harris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (if he opts out), Tristan Thompson, Jae Crowder, Aron Baynes, Goran Dragic, Pat Connaughton, Derrick Favors, Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday, Moe Harkless, Alec Burks, Christian Wood, De’Anthony Melton and restricted free agent Jakob Poeltl — stand to make between $7M and 15M a year this summer."
Now to Dallas...As you can see, he does talk about a path to bigger dollar players (if THJ doesn't take his PO). But, he then goes on to talk about it being more likely that Dallas is limited to the MLE.
"Dallas Mavericks ($23.3M) — The Mavs are a real wild card here. I’d put the odds of Hardaway opting out at less than 50-50 but not zero, especially if he has a strong finish and playoffs. If both Hardaway and Willie Cauley-Stein opt out of their option years, the Mavs would be looking at $23.3M in room — that’s if they have the 19th pick in the draft. The Mavs could get to max territory by trading Justin Jackson or trading their first-round pick for a future pick.
The Mavs obviously would be in a strong position in the market here, given their rosy future and warm, tax-free market. However, it’s not much of a market at the guard spots — if they can’t get Hayward or VanVleet, their best move is likely just re-signing Hardaway.
Additionally, the more likely scenario remains that Hardaway opts into his final season and the Mavs go into the market with their full mid-level exception."
Here's the thing about the MLE. Keeping WCS and/or MKG at anything above the minimum requires eating up some of the MLE. So, to play in that pool, you have to walk away from your recent acquisitions. The other way to get to those kinds of players is through S&T. S&T's will take giving up assets, but Cuban hasn't really valued picks.
They go team by team and talk about what kind of money they will have. They also talk about who might be available. Let's deal with the latter first. He mentions Ingram, VanVleet, Bogdanovic and Beasley as RFA's very likely to stay with their home teams. Here is how he classifies the best of the rest:
"Among unrestricted free agents, Toronto’s Fred VanVleet and Oklahoma City’s Danilo Gallinari are the two main attractions. Orlando’s Evan Fournier seems likely to opt out of his deal and would rank third on this list. Boston’s Gordon Hayward and San Antonio’s DeMar DeRozan could also join the party by opting out of the final seasons of their deals, but for each, an opt-in appears the better strategy; their respective teams could also “opt-in and extend” after the season. One level down, Dallas’ Tim Hardaway Jr. is another opt-out wild card.
OK, that’s a lame A-List, but here’s the good news: Most of the league will be operating with the mid-level exception (an estimated $9.755M next season).
At that level and points just above and below, the market looks much frothier. A number of good second-line players — including unrestricted free agents Davis Bertans, Jordan Clarkson, Montrezl Harrell, Marcus Morris, Hassan Whiteside, Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Joe Harris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (if he opts out), Tristan Thompson, Jae Crowder, Aron Baynes, Goran Dragic, Pat Connaughton, Derrick Favors, Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday, Moe Harkless, Alec Burks, Christian Wood, De’Anthony Melton and restricted free agent Jakob Poeltl — stand to make between $7M and 15M a year this summer."
Now to Dallas...As you can see, he does talk about a path to bigger dollar players (if THJ doesn't take his PO). But, he then goes on to talk about it being more likely that Dallas is limited to the MLE.
"Dallas Mavericks ($23.3M) — The Mavs are a real wild card here. I’d put the odds of Hardaway opting out at less than 50-50 but not zero, especially if he has a strong finish and playoffs. If both Hardaway and Willie Cauley-Stein opt out of their option years, the Mavs would be looking at $23.3M in room — that’s if they have the 19th pick in the draft. The Mavs could get to max territory by trading Justin Jackson or trading their first-round pick for a future pick.
The Mavs obviously would be in a strong position in the market here, given their rosy future and warm, tax-free market. However, it’s not much of a market at the guard spots — if they can’t get Hayward or VanVleet, their best move is likely just re-signing Hardaway.
Additionally, the more likely scenario remains that Hardaway opts into his final season and the Mavs go into the market with their full mid-level exception."
Here's the thing about the MLE. Keeping WCS and/or MKG at anything above the minimum requires eating up some of the MLE. So, to play in that pool, you have to walk away from your recent acquisitions. The other way to get to those kinds of players is through S&T. S&T's will take giving up assets, but Cuban hasn't really valued picks.