DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey]

[KillerLeft]

It's legit crazy how we try to evaluate these 1 and done kids on such a ridiculously small sample size of games in a normal year, much less with the circumstances of last year.  Wouldn't at all be surprised if Green turns out to way better than people are projecting, who was coming off an injury on top of all that.    I like his touch on his jumper and his floaters.

Your point is a good one. Very true, especially outsiders like us who have access to even less information than the pros. 

But, it's what we're here to do! 

Regarding Green, so much is made about his measurables, but what I saw on the film, which was limited but as Kamm said, more extensive than highlights, was a player who seemed like a small guy trying to play bigger than he is. He kept driving into crowds and trying to play physically, the way Kawhi would, for example, only he seemed way, way too small and weak to do so effectively, even against the college players in those games. This impression of mine was so overwhelming that I double checked his wingspan number in disbelief. Relative to the situations he was putting himself in, the measurables didn't seem to serve him very well, imo. 

So, right there, you can write off (in my opinion) any thought of him being able to get good shots off in the paint at the NBA level. 3&D only, and honestly, the shooting isn't all that impressive either, imo. 

Building on the above, I have a difficult time (for the same reasons) seeing him developing into an effective defender on certain types: George, Leonard, Lebron, etc. Ironically, this opinion is derived because of his physical situation, which is supposed to be the BEST thing about him. I can DEFINITELY see those measurables and lateral quickness being an immediate positive for him in terms of defending GUARDS, and I think those who love his measurables are unconsciously comparing him to people who play those positions. But, I don't believe his handle, shooting or decision making on offense will allow him to get consistent minutes as a guard.

I could go on, but to me, the secret is not to evaluate the whole of what a player is or isn't, it's to try to envision the role he will most likely be given an opportunity to earn in the NBA (especially early on). Does he have the skills to immediately contribute in THAT role? If the answer is no, and he projects as a role player to begin with, I become skeptical that he'll be given the time needed to develop into a functional player. 

ANY of these guys CAN be great players. ANY of them. NONE of them are "mirages." The issue is: can they continually pass tests, each time earning their right to stay in the show a little longer, until finally they've "arrived" and no longer have to worry about keeping their jobs? SO MUCH of that depends on how the drafting team envisions using him, whether the player's training, talents and experience prepare him for that role, and (maybe most important) how similarly the team's vision of his future role matches the player's.