DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey]

[Kammrath]

Because all the mentioned guys are automatically better or better fits than Oladipo?

I think the logic is this (at least for me):

A) Dipo is a risky fit AND a health risk. In my opinion and conjecture I think there is about a 5% chance Dipo is 1) a great fit, 2) overcomes his health issues, AND 3) doesn't leave the Mavs hanging next summer. 

B) #18 pick is indeed a risk.... historically 25% chance he is a rotation player, 15% chance he is a starter, 5% chance he is a star (82games.com numbers). 

No one is saying anything is "automatic" in any of this, especially not in the draft. 

So from my seat we have TWO options in this scenario surrounding Dipo speculation (though I don't think IND will trade him since his value is so low).

1) The 5% shot with Dipo is going to be EXPENSIVE, costing assets to attain AND if you keep him lots of cap room.

2) The 5% shot the #18 pick is a star is a CHEAP risk. DAL already HAS this pick in hand, doesn't need to do ANYTHING to get it. And the pick will be on a rookie salary through some key building years around Luka. 


I would rather take the number two 5% chance every single time.


NOTE: My guess on the 5% chance that Dipo 1) fits next to Luka, 2) gets 100% back to his old health, and 3) does not bail on the Mavs after one year, could be wrong. But there are three moving parts in that which all seem to be risky from my seat. But this is my logic and if my guess is close, I think my position makes a lot of sense.